Preview: Wake Forest at No. 9 Duke

Sometimes a silly, gimmicky stat is just that.

Sometimes it can evolve into more. That’s what we have with the Mark Mitchell double digit tracker.

Duke is 28-3 across the last two seasons when its sophomore forward scores at least 10 points. The rest of the equation there is Duke is 2-2 in games he doesn’t play — notably the NCAA tournament loss to Tennessee — and 15-9 when he plays and scores in single figures.

“Man, Mark is special,” coach Jon Scheyer said after Saturday’s win over Boston College, in which Mitchell scored a 17.

Of course, Mitchell’s involvement goes beyond scoring. Duke’s 15-point win over the Eagles is a prime example, as the 6-9, 232-pounder’s mesh of athleticism and versatility meant matching up against BC center Quinten Post at times, and at others switching onto BC’s guards.

That impact is consistent, though. What was sporadic last season and has become steadier this year is Mitchell’s assertiveness offensively.

He had 15 of his 17 points in the second half of Saturday’s game, including two more 3-pointers.

Mitchell’s nickname is “Easy,” which makes the Mark Mitchell double-digit tracker an easy illustrator of what he means to the Blue Devils’ success.

“A lot of our offense runs through him,” Scheyer said. “And I don't even know if he scored, it might have been just a couple in the first half. But the burst that he came out with right away in the second half, he's the one that got us separation.”

Mitchell hit double-figure points in 10 of his first 25 games last season, when Duke was 17-8. He scored eight in each of the first two games at the start of Duke’s 10-game win streak, and then scored in double figures in six straight games, at the end of last season.

Consistency comes in the form of him hitting double figures in 15 of the 20 games he’s played this season. That includes 20-point games in the past 1½ months against Syracuse, Notre Dame and Louisville, plus one back in November against Bucknell.

“I think we have a lot of talent, a lot of pieces, so I think when we’re going, it’s something that a lot of teams can’t match up with,” Mitchell said. “I think once we get going and clicking on offense, no one can match up with us, so if that’s a killer instinct, then I think we have it.”

Of course, Mitchell might be underselling how much of a part he plays in that.

“We're at our best when he's attacking. I just love how assertive he was,” Scheyer said. “And then he's a guy that is always trying to make the right play. He's always playing to win.”

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Here’s what to know ahead of Monday night’s game:

Time: 7 p.m.

Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium.

TV: ESPN.

Series; last meeting: Duke leads 179-80; Duke won 75-73 on Jan. 31 last season, as both teams won on their home courts.

Of note: Wake Forest has not won at Cameron since 1997, Tim Duncan’s senior season.

Records: Wake Forest 16-7, 8-4 ACC; Duke 18-5, 9-3.

Stats to watch: 54.6% | 40.2%.

The first number is Duke’s assist rate, which is 84th in the country; the second is Wake’s defensive assist rate, which is the 7th-lowest in the country (both per KenPom and entering Sunday’s games).

It’s pretty simple: Duke’s offense is at its best when the ball moves and Wake’s defense is one of the best in the country at making opposing offenses play stagnant.

Another simple part of this: Duke’s assist rate in five losses is 40.7%; its assist rate in the 18 wins is 58.2%, and only four times this season have the Blue Devils won a game when that clip is under 50%.

The trend here has been positive for Duke after North Carolina took it out of its offensive rhythm a week ago. Against the Tar Heels, Duke had eight assists on 35 field goals; in the relatively comfortable wins over Notre Dame and Boston College, Duke had a combined 32 assists on 56 field goals (57.1%).

Wake’s defensive assist rate is second-best among high-major teams (Creighton is first). The Deacons’ defense plays passing lanes and generates deflections, a byproduct of having two shot-blocking threats — Efton Reid III and Andrew Carr — on the court for the bulk of games.

Wake Forest has allowed one team in its last seven games to go higher than 50% on assist rate. That was Georgia Tech, which had 12 assists on 17 field goals in a game the Deacons won by 29 and led 33-5 after about 15 minutes.

Matchup to watch: Wake Forest forward Andrew Carr (No. 11) vs. Duke forward Mark Mitchell (No. 25).

The likelihood of either player leading his team in scoring might be low.

The likelihood of the winner of this matchup playing for the winning team is high.

Wake Forest is at its best when Carr is able to both stretch the floor and hit a 3-pointer or two — he’s at 40.3%, 27 of 67, this season — and attacking the paint. You don’t have to stretch back too far to find evidence, as he scored 15 points, had seven rebounds, blocked three shots, and had the go-ahead bucket with 18 seconds left against N.C. State on Saturday.

That was the eighth straight game in which Carr has scored in double figures. He’s also averaging 5.9 rebounds and has blocked 13 shots in that span.

He’ll be matched up with Mitchell, Duke’s own X-factor whose offensive activity is a strong barometer of his team’s success on that end.

As much as Mitchell’s shooting struggles were discussed in November and December, don’t let this go unnoticed: After starting 1-for-22 on 3-pointers, Mitchell has made 5 of his 9. He made both of his attempts against BC.

Deacon to watch: Guard Hunter Sallis (No. 23).

Say hello to Steve Forbes’ latest version of taking a guard from the portal and letting him thrive in a free-flowing, ball-screen heavy offense.

Like Alondes Williams two years ago and Tyree Appleby last year, Sallis looks like a first-team All-ACC player. Unlike them, he was a top-50 recruit who came to Wake Forest with more than one season of eligibility remaining.

After averaging 4.4 points across two seasons (69 games) at Gonzaga, Sallis is third in the ACC with 18.5 points per game as a three-level scorer, making 40.3% of his 3s and ranking eighth in the league in field goal percentage (49.8%, better than any other guard).

And he’s coming off his best game of the season.

Sallis scored a career-high 33 points against N.C. State on Saturday, going blow-for-blow with DJ Horne (who had 31 points). He did so on 12-for-17 shooting, including a 4-for-6 clip on 3s, and added six rebounds.

The sidenote here is that Duke's Mitchell is familiar with Sallis:

“I’ve been playing against Hunter Sallis since I was about 16 years old, him being from Omaha, me being from Kansas City,” Mitchell said. “I’ve known about him before he was a top-ranked recruit or anything, so seeing him play the way he is, coming from Gonzaga, really I’m happy for him.

“Having someone from the Midwest be able to revive their career and be one of the best players in the country is good to see.”

Blue Devil to watch: Center Sean Stewart (No. 13).

He’s getting there.

Duke’s freshman center has had high-energy impacts on each of the last two games. Against Notre Dame, it was the block-run the floor-lob that pumped electricity into the home crowd; against Boston College, it was two buckets close to the rim in the closing minutes of the first half after the Eagles briefly took a lead.

Stewart has been a rollercoaster in his freshman season and is still going through some growing pains — see Scheyer yelling for him to clear the side on Duke’s final play of the first half against BC, or the once or twice per game a teammate is screaming at him.

But his burgeoning confidence gives Scheyer an athletic option in the frontcourt, allowing the second-year coach to mix and match lineups with Ryan Young being the other frontcourt option off the bench.

“I think he can bring something that nobody else has on this team,” Young said after Duke’s win over Notre Dame. “His ability, just jumping on the defensive end, blocking shots, getting rebounds … and then obviously a lob threat, it just brings so much energy into our group and into the building.

“It’s fun to play with him because he makes you play harder when you watch him do what he does.”

What’s on deck: Duke finishes its three-game homestand with this game and heads onto the road for the next three.

The next two are trips to Florida. The Blue Devils play at Florida State on Saturday, and then at Miami next Wednesday. A rematch against Wake Forest is on the other side of it, that one set for Feb. 24 and marking the second instance of the season that Duke plays the same team twice in less than two weeks (Pitt was the other).

Wake Forest comes out of this Quad-1 chance with another one, as the Deacons head to suddenly surging Virginia on Saturday.

KenPom prediction: Duke wins 79-73.

Devils Illustrated prognosis: I think this game and the next three road games are going to tell us what Duke’s ceiling in March is.

Not to oversell the importance or anything.

It just feels like a stretch of now-or-never for this team. Either things come together and it clicks, they play connected, and can beat similarly talented teams. Or it’s a team that’ll be comfortably in the NCAA tournament, maybe even win a game or two, but have a hard cap of how far it can advance — without that being close to reaching Phoenix.