You won’t find a team in the ACC that faces more of a challenge in moving away from divisions than Duke.
The Blue Devils took advantage of their final season in the unpredictable Coastal Division by going 9-4. You can point out how manageable the schedule was — Duke played all five ACC teams that didn’t qualify for a bowl game, going 4-1 in such games — while also praising the job of coach Mike Elko and his staff to turn the program around in the first season.
They won’t get the same benefit with this season’s schedule — at least, that’s how it looks a month and a half before a game is played.
Seven of Duke’s eight league games are against teams that finished 2022 with a winning record. The Blue Devils start in the deep end of the pool with a Monday night opener against Clemson, which has won the ACC in seven of the last eight seasons, and have a stretch of four road games in five weeks in the second half of the season.
Oh and by the way, the non-conference schedule basically traded Temple for a Connecticut team that was as surprising as Duke was last season under new coach Jim Mora, and trades Kansas for a visit from Notre Dame.
Here are the five most-important games for Duke to win this season:
1. Clemson
Date: Sept. 4 (Monday Night).
Location: Wallace Wade Stadium.
Last meeting; series: Clemson won 35-6 in 2018; Clemson leads 37-16-1.
Overview: If you’re going to face the reigning ACC champs who have a new quarterback (Cade Klubnik) and offensive coordinator (Garrett Riley), you might as well do it in the first game of the season.
Duke has an opportunity to showcase its program on a national stage on the opening weekend of the season. The Blue Devils haven’t beaten a ranked team since 2016; they haven’t beaten a top-10 team since 1989 (when the opponent was Clemson).
A talented returning core from Duke’s nine-win campaign a season ago should make the Blue Devils confident they can run with the Tigers.
Brace yourselves for much of the discussion around this game being about Clemson and whether the Tigers can not only fend off Florida State — more on the Seminoles shortly — in the ACC, but return to the College Football Playoff.
But Duke can throw a wrench into all of that with a win to close out Labor Day.
A win would mean …: Duke is a contender atop the ACC.
Along with all the other historical data, a win here would establish the Blue Devils as one of the top two teams in the ACC. Clemson is the likely pick as the league’s preseason champ when the votes are tallied at next week’s ACC Kickoff in Charlotte.
It’d also be concrete evidence that A) last season wasn’t a fluke and B) the Blue Devils’ progression from last season has outpaced the increased difficulty in its schedule.
2. at Florida State
Date: Oct. 21.
Location: Doak S. Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Fla.
Last meeting; series: Florida State won 56-35 in 2020; FSU leads 21-0.
Overview: At the risk of crying wolf, FSU is finally be back as a national power.
The Seminoles have faded with Clemson’s rise for most of the past decade, but last year’s 10-win season and the returns of quarterback Jordan Travis, running back Trey Benson, wide receiver Johnny Wilson and defensive end Jared Verse have ratcheted up the optimism in Tallahassee.
It’ll be interesting to see how FSU and Duke match up. The only two meetings since the teams met in the ACC championship game (2013) were in 2017 and 2020, when the Seminoles were scuffling. They enter this season boasting two of the top three QBs in the league and plenty of returning firepower on both sides of the ball — these teams are more alike than most realize.
A win would mean …: Kind of the same as above, that Duke is a contender atop the ACC.
Of course, the meaning of a win here changes based on what Duke has already done to this point in the season. The Clemson matchup is a measuring stick right out of the gate, while this one falls in the middle of the schedule.
If Duke’s season is going well, a win here can propel the Blue Devils into the second half; if things are sideways, a win here can get things turned in the right direction for the second half.
It’d also be a heck of a start to a portion of the schedule where Duke plays four road games in a five-week span, heading to Louisville, UNC and Virginia, with a home game against Wake Forest in between.
3. at North Carolina
Date: Nov. 11.
Location: Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill.
Last meeting; series: North Carolina won 38-35 in 2022; UNC leads 64-41-4.
Overview: You had to know this game would be on here and maybe you’re disappointed it’s not listed higher.
Quarterback matchups are for the birds — they’re literally never on the field against each other — but it’s hard not to get swept up in the high-caliber matchups the Blue Devils will have. In the first seven games, Riley Leonard will match up against Klubnik, Sam Hartman at Notre Dame, and Travis, and later in the season comes this game.
Drake Maye is the ACC’s reigning player of the year; Leonard is a dark horse to win that award this season.
Beyond the QB matchup, though, is a game that figures to pit two explosive offenses against the other. If the edge goes to which team has the better defense, that could be Duke.
A win would mean …: Sweet, sweet revenge.
Yes, it’d be a strong win. There’s no telling where each team will be in the middle of November, but one or both of them could be vying for a place in the ACC championship game.
We don’t know about any of that, though. What we do know is that UNC stole a last-minute victory from Duke last year, extending its win streak to four games in this series.
That was one of Duke’s three losses that came by three or fewer points and is the one that stung the most. Paying back the Tar Heels by notching a win on their home field would be awfully satisfying for this program.
4. vs. Notre Dame
Date: Sept. 30.
Location: Wallace Wade Stadium.
Last meeting; series: Notre Dame won 27-13 in 2020; Notre Dame leads 5-2.
Overview: The season is going to start with Duke playing host to a national power and we won’t get out of September before that happens again.
This isn’t a top-10, CFP-contending Notre Dame team — at least, not yet. But the Irish is in that next tier of teams that, if new pieces mesh quickly with a strong foundation, it won’t take long before garnering a top-10 ranking.
A lot of that has to do with a quarterback Duke beat last season.
Hartman went from Wake Forest to Notre Dame in college football’s biggest transfer portal move. The ACC’s all-time touchdown pass leader will play six ACC teams in his sixth college season.
Duke had an interception and three sacks against Hartman is last year’s regular-season finale.
A win would mean …: Duke notches a marquee win that either pairs with one against Clemson, or is a nice consolation prize.
In either scenario, Duke scores a win against one of the sport’s premier programs. Obviously the preference would be to beat both of them, in which case Duke would likely hold a top-15 ranking entering its off week.
If it’s just a win against the Irish, though, it’ll be quite the story.
Notre Dame hasn’t lost a regular-season game to an ACC team since 2017. It’ll put that streak (28 wins) on the line with a trip to the Triangle before the trip to Durham, as the Irish plays at N.C. State on Sept. 9.
5. vs. Pittsburgh
Date: Nov. 25.
Location: Wallace Wade Stadium.
Last meeting; series: Pitt won 28-26 in 2022; Pitt leads 17-9.
Overview: How hard is the wind going to be blowing a couple of days after Thanksgiving?
(remember the absurdity of that last year?)
In all seriousness, this matchup pales in comparison to others on this list. Pitt doesn’t have a nationally acclaimed program nor are the Panthers a rival of Duke (though they’ve shared some memorable battles in the Coastal).
Being the last game of the regular season, though, this one is bound to mean *something* for the Blue Devils. Maybe Duke is in need of a win to punch a ticket to the ACC championship game; maybe it needs a win to reach a bowl game. There’s an awfully big gray area there, too.
It’s an interesting matchup because of the dichotomy of it. Both head coaches have defensive coordinator backgrounds, yet Pat Narduzzi seems to prioritize everything about defensive football, while Elko has taken more of a balanced approach to building Duke’s program.
A win would mean …: Sweet revenge and capturing a distinction.
It’s impossible to know where these teams will be in the final week of the season. Duke could be playing for a trip to Charlotte in the following week; it could be dragging through the end of a brutal schedule, or it could fall anywhere in between.
Similar to the explanation on UNC, though, this would deliver some revenge for the Blue Devils after losing at Pitt last season. That was Duke’s only loss in the last six games of the season and it came because of a missed two-point conversion in the final minutes.
That game held particular importance to Duke because of last year’s emphasis on being the most-physical team in the ACC. That’s a title long held by Pitt and retained by Pitt with that two-point margin.
Wrestling that crown away from the Panthers would be a nice way to end the season, regardless of what were to follow.