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Published Oct 20, 2023
Preview: No. 16 Duke at No. 4 Florida State
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Conor O'Neill  •  DevilsIllustrated
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Blue Devils get another chance to prove themselves on big stage; Plus a preview of Saturday’s Duke-FSU game

Five of Duke’s first six games were at home, and the Blue Devils have had their off week, too. Duke’s football team has spent a lot of time in Durham.

The glass-half-empty view of what comes next — four of five games on the road, three of them against the other three ranked ACC teams — is that Duke will spend a lot of time away from Durham over the next month.

And from a certain point of view, that’s the glass-half-full perspective, too.

“For me, I like going on the road. I think it’s because my first ever big game was on the road … so I think that’s how I’m ingrained,” defensive tackle DeWayne Carter said. “We obviously love playing at home, but it’s however many games plus the bye week.

“Like, dang, all right let’s go see something new.”

The environment will be new; the stage will not be.

Duke is at Florida State this weekend for a Saturday night showdown. The winner will have a clearer shot to Charlotte for the ACC championship game; the loser won’t be out of that race, but it’ll become tougher.

“I mean, there’s no hiding from it. It’s a big game,” left tackle Graham Barton said with a chuckle. “Everyone knows that. Both sides know that. We’re preparing how we always prepare, but obviously we’re adding in the crowd noise element.”

For the third time in the first seven games of the season, Duke lands in the primetime, national TV spotlight. It’s a place that outsiders are surprised to find Duke; it’s a place the Blue Devils expect to be, one in which they’re becoming more comfortable.

“We’re definitely getting a lot of experience, just from the confidence standpoint,” Carter said. “I think it’s more reinforcing what we already knew about ourselves.

“And it’s another thing when you go out there and actually execute and do it.”

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Here’s a primer on what you need to know for Saturday night’s game:

Time: 7:30 p.m.

Location: Doak S. Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Fla.

TV: ABC.

Announcers: Chris Fowler (play-by-play), Kirk Herbstreit (analyst) and Holly Rowe (sidelines).

Radio link: Listen to the crew that knows Duke's football program best.

Forecast: Low-70s at kickoff, low-60s by the game’s end, clear skies and light winds throughout the game.

Series; last meeting: FSU leads 21-0; FSU won 56-35 in 2020.

Records: Duke 5-1, 2-0 ACC; FSU 6-0, 3-0.

Stat to watch: Plus-3 | Plus-5.

Remember all of the focus in the preseason about turnover margin? About how Duke was due for a regression from staggering numbers last season?

Was two months ago — give or take a couple of weeks — the last time you thought about that?

Duke is plus-3 in turnover margin this season; not quite on pace to match last year’s plus-16, but strong enough to be in the top 40 among FBS programs. FSU is plus-5, standing out more for its lack of giveaways (three) than its takeaways (eight).

So, why is this the focus if neither team relies heavily on takeaways, and neither one has been susceptible to turnovers?

Because in games with two teams that don’t often turn the ball over, those types of mistakes are magnified. You reach a point with both teams in which there’s enough sense of security that it’s jarring — to both observers and those on the team — when a turnover is committed.

It can lead to compounded mistakes and a decisive advantage for the other team.

Matchup to watch: Duke’s cornerbacks against FSU’s wide receivers.

It’s not the first example of why Duke needed to bring in lengthy cornerbacks Myles Jones and Al Blades Jr.

It is the latest, though.

Jones (6-4) and Blades (6-1) have allowed 14 catches on a combined 36 targets, per Pro Football Focus. After missing two games, Jones returned against N.C. State and forced a fumble; Blades has allowed one catch on 12 targets across the last three games, with that catch going for 3 yards last weekend.

They, along with Chandler Rivers, Johsua Pickett and the rest of Duke’s secondary, will have their hands full in this game.

FSU had one grown-man type of wide receiver who was a second-team All-ACC pick last year (Johnny Wilson, 6-7, 237) and went to the transfer portal to add a another freakishly athletic wide receiver (Keon Coleman, 6-4, 215, from Michigan State).

“On some receivers, you can be in great coverage and you can know that there’s probably not a window to throw them the football,” Duke coach Mike Elko said. “With these guys, you can be in phenomenal coverage and there’s still a window to throw them the football.”

Wilson missed last weekend’s game against Syracuse but is expected to play against Duke.

Quote of the week: “You would think we’re playing in the Super Bowl every week with Coach Elko out there. It doesn’t matter if it’s Game One or Game Two or Game Six, we’re locked in on the details.” — Barton

Opposing offensive player to watch: Running back Trey Benson (No. 3).

It was around this time last year that Benson emerged from the pack as the Seminoles’ best running back. He went over 100 yards in four of the last six games, with a 111-yard effort against Georgia Tech in what was the first of FSU’s current 12-game winning streak.

He has not had the same effectiveness this season — but he might be hitting his stride again.

Benson was held under 50 yards in three of FSU’s first four games. He exploded for 200 yards against Virginia Tech two weeks ago, needing just 11 carries because he scored on runs of 62 and 85 yards in the second half.

Last weekend against a Syracuse defense that’s better against the rush than the Hokies, Benson had 14 carries for 74 yards.

The 6-1, 223-pounder’s yards after contact pops off of the page for the last two weeks. Benson had 125 yards after contact in the Seminoles’ first four games, per Pro Football Focus; he’s had 122 yards after contact in the last two games.

Opposing defensive player to watch: Defensive end Jared Verse (No. 5).

In a matchup loaded with talented players, this one is likely to be the highest NFL draft pick.

Verse transferred to FSU from Albany — unlike so many of FSU’s other high-level players, he wasn’t plucked from another P5 — and popped onto draft boards last season. He’s a 6-4, 260-pound, super-athletic defensive end who’s more of a speed rusher, but still has power moves to record QB pressures.

The Dayton, Ohio, native was the sixth pick in The Athletic’s mock draft released this week, and was the first defensive player to be selected.

Young Blue Devil to watch: Safety Terry Moore (No. 23).

Duke didn’t want to have to play Jeremiah Lewis last weekend and that meant playing Moore for every defensive snap.

The converted running back was around the ball all night, had a career-high seven tackles, recorded a ½-sack and a pass break-up.

Moore was more.

The sophomore’s career-high in snaps was 40, and that came against Lafayette. Otherwise, he’d averaged around 23 snaps per game. Against the Wolfpack, Moore played all 74 defensive snaps for the Blue Devils.

“Terry’s a guy that we have a lot of confidence in and I think he’s playing at a really high level,” Elko said after last weekend’s game. “He’s very athletic. He’s very dynamic. He can down the football really well for a safety.”

Don’t forget about: Defensive tackle DeWayne Carter (No. 90).

This is another one in the category of don’t forget how freaking good this guy is.

You’re unlikely to forget about Duke’s best defensive lineman. Carter has played the most snaps of any Blue Devils defensive lineman, the 300-pounder is versatile enough to line up at end positions in certain packages, and he’s elevated his game in recent games, his coach pointed out.

“I just think the last three weeks, he probably has gotten completely healthy,” Elko said of Carter. “I think he, maybe, would even tell you the first handful of games he wasn’t as disruptive or as active as he would have liked to have been.”

Also: Don’t forget how good his sense of humor is.

The fifth-year defensive tackle was limited entering the season because of nicks in camp, Elko said. That’s where the getting healthy part factors into the equation.

“You know, I’m old,” Carter said. “I don’t think I realized how old I am. So at the beginning of the year I had to figure out my routine and what was going to work for me, how much extra I had to do.”

Carter, for the record, turns 23 in December.

Prediction: You can hold what Duke has done this season in high regard while acknowledging the Blue Devils have not faced a team as complete as this FSU team.

It’s a team that seems bound for the College Football Playoff because it checks all of the boxes. A steady and dynamic QB, playmakers at the skill positions, talented offensive line, freakish defensive line, versatile on the back end of the defense — it’s the total package.

Duke’s recipe for a win, before you get to who plays QB, involves avoiding obvious passing downs, making FSU’s offense one-dimensional, and holding a significant special teams edge. Two of those three might not get the job done.

This is where you’re reminded that Duke has never, in 19 games, failed to keep a game close under Elko. In a year and a half, the “worst” loss was an eight-point loss at Kansas last year when the Jayhawks were a Top-25 team. Whatever the formula is, it’s kept Duke in every game under Elko — with 14 wins to boast.

Now we’ll see if the formula works against a bona fide national champion contender.

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