Blue Devils riding efficient offense into what could be toughest game of NCAA tournament
NEWARK, N.J. – Most times there’s a “first time in program history” stat with Duke’s men’s basketball program, it’s notable.
Like this one: For the first time, the Blue Devils have shot at least 60% from the field, 50% from 3-point range, and 80% at the free-throw line in back-to-back games.
“I know we've had teams that have been in great rhythm,” coach Jon Scheyer said on Friday. “I think for us, it's just about we've found our flow in terms of how to play really connected without having to call a set every time down.”
That’s going to be all the more important for Duke in Saturday night’s Elite Eight game.
The Blue Devils play Alabama with a berth in the Final Four at stake. The Crimson Tide has modernized basketball as much as any one team in college basketball, playing at breakneck speed under coach Nate Oats and operating under the guise that every shot should be a 3-pointer or a layup/dunk.
Overcoming Alabama would mean the Blue Devils punch their first Final Four berth under Scheyer, who’s in his third season as a head coach. The man who replaced Mike Krzyzewski had the Blue Devils in this same position last year, where they lost to N.C. State.
There’s some thought that this game of the NCAA tournament is the most difficult to win, given the stakes attached and the blitz that the first two weekends can be.
Scheyer said Friday he agrees with that notion.
“One, each team has great momentum going into this game. No matter who you play, each team has won three games in a row,” Scheyer said. “And then obviously you're an inch away from the promised land, going to a Final Four.
“I think with that at stake, it brings out really high-level basketball, desperation, the competitive level. I've been on both sides, and it's heartbreaking when you lose, and it's the best feeling when you win. That's what you work for. That's why you recruit. That's why you build a team. All the time, energy and all that goes into those moments.”
All of those moments, leading to a question of whether Duke will have more moments next weekend.
Here’s what to know ahead of Saturday night’s Elite 8 game:
Time: 8:49 p.m.
Location: Prudential Center, Newark, N.J.
TV: TBS/TruTV.
Announcers: Brian Anderson (play-by-play), Jim Jackson (analyst) and Allie LaForce (sidelines).
Series; last meeting: Duke leads 8-3 and has won seven straight meetings; Duke won 74-64 on Nov. 27, 2013 at Madison Square Garden. Jabari Parker led Duke with 27 points in that game, on 9-for-12 shooting and 9-for-10 at the free-throw line.
Records: Alabama 28-8; Duke 34-3.
The winner will …: Play the winner of the Midwest Region, which has Sweet 16 games on Friday night. Those matchups are 1-seed Houston against 4-seed Purdue, and 2-seed Tennessee against 3-seed Kentucky.
Stat to watch: 25.
It’s the one number that stands out above the rest from either of Thursday night’s games.
Alabama broke the single-game NCAA tournament record for 3-pointers with 25 of them. The Crimson Tide got hot and stayed hot, pouring them in against an overwhelmed BYU defense.
Alabama took 66 shots and 51 of them were 3-pointers; as hellbent as coach Nate Oats is about his team launching 3s (along with getting to the rim), that 77.3% clip for 3-pointers/FGA is the highest in his six-season tenure at Alabama (207 games).
It’s safe to assume Duke isn’t going to let Alabama take aim to the level that BYU did.
Maybe the real stat to watch here is Duke’s season average of allowing 38.1% of opponents’ shots to come from behind the 3-point line; or the 31% 3-point defense Duke has allowed, which is 36th-lowest in the country.
Matchup to watch: Pace.
Nothing individual to watch here — well, there are possibilities. Duke needs a guard to hound Mark Sears after he made 10 3-pointers against Alabama; the Crimson Tide have to come up with a solution for Cooper Flagg.
Godspeed to both.
But speaking of speed, this is one of the key contrasts to watch.
Alabama plays at the fastest pace in the country. That’s a KenPom stat, as Alabama games average 75.2 possessions. It’s a team that wants to go fast and take the first available shot; its collective skill level means even if some of those would be considered “bad” or “rushed” shots, enough of them go in that make Alabama one of the best offenses in the country.
Duke, meanwhile, does have the best offense in the country — by efficiency, also on KenPom. But the Blue Devils only play an average of 65.9 possessions per game, ranked 264th in the country.
The one additional thing to know, here: Duke has been playing a faster pace lately and that’s part of why it has eclipsed 100 points in four of the last 13 games. Duke played 23 games between mid-November and mid-February that didn’t go above 69 possessions, but in the Blue Devils’ last 11 games, six of those saw a game with 70 possessions or more.
EvanMiya note: The kill shots.
Duke has the most kill shots in the country, 38 of them in 37 games, per EvanMiya.
The Blue Devils have had at least one kill shot — defined by a run of 10 straight points or more — in all six of their tournament games, three in Charlotte and three in the NCAA tournament so far.
Duke’s kill shot against Arizona came early but it was needed.
Crimson Tide to watch: Guard Mark Sears (No. 1).
You’ve got to pick the guy who just made 10 3-pointers in a game — one shy of tying the NCAA tournament record.
It felt like Sears was taking 25-foot layups against BYU. The shots were so open and Sears was in such a groove, making 10 of 16 on Thursday night, there wasn’t much guesswork left about whether he’d make those open shots or not.
Next, though?
Next is Duke’s task of making sure Sears returns to the form he had in the previous five games, which would make a Final 4 berth more likely. Before Thursday night’s explosion, Sears was a combined 3-for-25 in the previous five games.
Blue Devil to watch: Forward Cooper Flagg (No. 2).
Nothing about this is complicated. And the repeat selection in this category is warranted.
Flagg had a virtuoso performance against Arizona, putting up 30 points, seven assists, six rebounds and three blocks — and committed one turnover.
He was cooking early and often in the scoring category; the second half saw more of the stat-sheet-stuffing tendencies Flagg has shown throughout the season.
So, which version of Flagg will we see in this game? Or perhaps a better question: Which version will we see first, and will it be the same for all 40 minutes?
KenPom prediction: Duke wins 87-81.
Injury report: Maliq Brown is only permitted to miss four games at a time.
The junior center was back in action against Arizona, the third time in the last three months he’s returned after missing exactly four games. He only played 4½ minutes in the first half, but it was in a critical stretch when Khaman Maluach (two fouls) and Patrick Ngongba II (three) were both saddled with foul trouble.
“Look, he's not 100%. He's not close to it. And ideally he wouldn't have played in last night's game,” Scheyer said on Friday. “It was more in an emergency. … I thought he did some really good things in his minutes. We're going to have him ready to go in the next game.”
Alabama had a season-ending injury early in the year, when Latrell Wrightsell went down after eight games. The only recent trouble was the status of Grant Nelson, the 4-man from Devils Lake, N.D., after he suffered a knee injury in the SEC tournament.
Nelson only played seven minutes in the first round of the NCAA tournament, but has played 28 and 25 minutes in the two games since.
What a Duke loss looks like: An avalanche of 3-pointers would do it.
Alabama doesn’t have to make a ton of 3s to beat the Blue Devils. The Crimson Tide is skilled enough, with enough size, to score on the interior.
But it feels like the most likely way Duke loses this game is with Alabama pouring in another 10-15 3-pointers.
What a Duke win looks like: The Blue Devils can keep putting up ridiculously efficient offensive displays en route to a national championship.
But this feels like a game Duke will have to ride its defense to win. That doesn’t mean holding Alabama under 70 points or anything — it’s got to do with points per possession. Since the start of February, Alabama has been held under 1.1 ppp three times and has lost each of those games.
Here’s the ominous part for Duke: The Blue Devils have allowed a points per possession clip over 1.1 twice since their loss at Clemson — in each of the last two games. Giving up 1.11 ppp to Baylor wasn’t that big of a deal but giving up 1.31 to Arizona should sound some alarm bells for the Blue Devils.
Fix that, and Duke should be rolling toward San Antonio.
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