If not now, when?
Duke has swung and missed 22 times against Florida State, never having beaten the Seminoles in football. With FSU sitting at the bottom of the ACC with a 1-5 overall record (1-4 in league games) and currently suing the league with the intent of leaving it, it’s worth pondering whether this is Duke’s best chance to beat the Seminoles for a while (they’re not slated to play again until 2027).
FSU's 22 wins against Duke are the most without a loss in a series between two current Power 4 teams in the Poll Era (since 1936).
To get to know all about the Seminoles, we’ve enlisted the help of Curt Weiler, senior writer for The Osceola on the Rivals network.
Here is our five-part Q&A:
1. I like to start these with a simple vibe check. So, hopefully in the most obvious question of this exercise, how are things with this program?
Answer: It probably won't surprise you to hear that the vibes are quite bad at the moment with regard to the Florida State football program.
I don't think it was anyone's expectation that FSU was going to run off a second straight undefeated regular season. But the belief was they had developed enough players and added the right pieces through the portal that this team was supposed to be in contention to repeat as ACC Champs despite all it lost off last year's team to the NFL.
Instead, FSU has fallen off the face of a cliff and has gone from ACC Champs to ACC basement and national laughing stock. It's been astounding watching things sour so quickly. And there are real questions about how Mike Norvell will manage to climb his way out of this hole he's stunningly found himself in.
2. What kind of effect did Brock Glenn have on the offense against Clemson and what steps/tweaks do you think were made over the off week with him?
Answer: I think we saw some of what we expected from Glenn in his first start of the season. While DJ Uiagalelei seemed to struggle to process the field quickly enough to play effectively, Glenn brought a confidence that he always seems to play with, despite being put in some gnarly circumstances in the first few starts of his career.
He made some high-level throws (like his first touchdown to Amaree Williams) and looked far more comfortable running the offense in his second season with the program.
What I think we expected to see more of and didn't see much in the Clemson game was using Glenn in the run game. He's shown quite a few times at practice that he's deceptively fast and capable of breaking off a chunk play with his legs. Maybe we see more of that from him coming out of the bye week, especially because it could bring a spark to the run game that has been badly missing.
3. I’m struggling to wrap my head around what this offense has become — but the QB situations offers a partial explanation. Why has the rushing game bottomed out, though — and how much can be fixed with the benefit of an off week?
Answer: You and me both, Conor. It's been baffling seeing what FSU's offense has become this season. You're right that the QB situation presents a partial explanation, but I think Uiagalelei may have worked out better if he had any semblance of a run game to lean on to make his job much easier.
Six games into the season, FSU ranks dead last out of 134 FBS teams in rushing yards per game (58.0) and 133rd in yards per carry (2.16). An offensive line that was supposed to be a strength of this team has instead been a glaring weakness.
The injury aspect up front can't be denied. FSU is expected to start its sixth different offensive line combo in seven games Friday night and a number of expected contributors have missed time. However, that's not a full explanation.
Frankly, I think this season has shown that we overestimated how good this FSU offensive front was because Jordan Travis made the linemen look better than they actually are with his mobility and miraculous ability to escape sure sacks as well as by being a number that had to be accounted for in the running game. That plus a few transfer lineman additions this year that haven't worked out have put FSU's offensive line in a precarious position.
Coming out of the bye week, Norvell has attempted to fix the problem by making changes to the depth chart (even though he says he doesn't care about the depth chart), putting in a pair of younger, more athletic players at the guard spots. Those positions have been the biggest issue with FSU's run game this season, taking away its ability to use counter run plays. We'll get a bit of an idea Friday if anything on that front is remotely salvageable.
4. FSU’s defense has been … kind of OK? Outside of an awful showing at SMU and early against Clemson? What did those teams do well that Duke should try to replicate?
Answer: Ok is probably a fair way to describe FSU's defense through the first half of the 2024 season. The only problem is much more was expected of this side of the ball coming into the season.
There were questions about the linebacker unit, but even with all the talent FSU lost to the NFL, there's still a lot of talented, experienced players on the defensive line and in the secondary that were expected to keep things rolling this season.
Instead, it's been a unit that has shown its potential in moments but not nearly consistently enough. FSU's defense has allowed too many chunk plays and really struggled on third down (118th nationally). And yet, in two of the last three games vs. Cal and Clemson, the Seminoles have allowed no red-zone touchdowns in 11 combined trips. So that's one area where the defense has been great.
Clemson and SMU both ran for over 200 yards against FSU's defense, something I know Duke hasn't yet done this season. They combined to amass 51 first downs. FSU's defense has been susceptible to allowing extended, time-consuming possessions this season. That's a bad recipe for this team as it limits the number of possessions that an underperforming offense gets in a game.
5. These always end with some big-picture, overarching question about a team’s direction. Knowing FSU’s goals are all out the window, what’s left to be salvaged from this season?
Answer: What is left to be salvaged from this season is a few words I didn't think I would ever utter about an FSU team: Youth movement.
More and more true and redshirt freshmen have started to infiltrate FSU's depth chart and playing rotation. Each of the last two weeks, a true freshman tight end has caught their first career touchdown. Freshman running backs and receivers have started to get more burn. Finding those players to build around for a suddenly critical 2025 season becomes the focus with all expected 2024 goals long since out the window.
Additionally and perhaps most important of all, FSU needs to find out who its next quarterback will be.
Glenn has shown some promising signs of being the immediate future at QB. But true freshman Luke Kromenhoek was a talented recruit and has shown progress on the practice field. Norvell sald after the Clemson game there was a plan to potentially get him some reps in that game. Could he make his debut at Duke? Norvell needs to know exactly what he has in that pair of quarterbacks to ensure he doesn't need to hop back onto the portal QB carousel this offseason. That's exactly what these next six games should be.