Taking a swing at three things that could happen for Duke’s football team this season
Do you want the good news or the bad news first?
Or in this case: The optimist side of bold projections or the pessimistic one?
Well, you’re getting the former.
It’s the time of year when optimism reigns supreme in college football and that’s what we’re leaning into here. As the headline says, these three predictions skew toward best-case-scenario territory.
There will be a yin to this yang, but that’s coming later.
Here are three bold predictions — on the positive side — for Duke’s football season:
1. Duke goes 4-1 in September
The context: Duke has five games in the last 27 days of September, starting with a Monday night opener against Clemson at Wallace Wade Stadium.
The Blue Devils’ four non-conference games are next; home games against FCS-level Lafayette and turmoil-stricken Northwestern, a trip to Connecticut, followed by a home game against Notre Dame on Sept. 30.
Why it’s bold: Because you don’t just walk into Storrs, Conn., and beat the defending national champs.
Oh, right, wrong sport.
Duke’s last win over a top-10 team — where Clemson is likely to be when the rankings come out in several weeks — was in 1989. Notre Dame might be in that top 10 when they visit Durham.
I think Duke gets a win over one of them.
Why so confident: All of the talk about how much more difficult Duke’s schedule is compared to last year has to be accompanied with discussion of how many of those players are back this season.
This is a team that lost little production from a nine-win team, and it’s one that should help Duke establish itself as one of the better teams in the ACC this season.
I think that happens with an early win against a marquee opponent.
2. Riley Leonard has better stats than last year
The context: As a first-year starter, Leonard completed 63.8% of his passes for 2,967 yards and 20 touchdowns, only throwing six interceptions. He was Duke’s leading rusher, with 699 yards and 13 scores (5.6 yards per carry).
Why it’s bold: Well … it is and it isn’t.
It’s natural to expect some growth in a player’s second season as a starter. Defensive coordinators like to throw the kitchen sink at new quarterbacks and Leonard handled whatever was thrown at him last year. Plus, he’ll benefit from a wealth of familiarity, as Duke returns every contributor at the skill positions.
He set the bar high for himself, though.
His 33 total touchdowns are the most ever for a Duke quarterback; his 3,666 total yards last season was the second-most (behind Anthony Dilweg’s 3,713 in 1988). Leonard’s 20:6 ratio on touchdown passes against interceptions was the most-efficient in Duke history.
Why so confident: It’s for a few reasons but the main one is simply believing that the first part of the section above matters more than the second part.
Leonard’s rapport with Jalon Calhoun, Jordan Moore, Eli Pancol and Sahmir Hagans (among others) was one of the most impressive things about his season a year ago. Barring something crazy, those are bonds that have only strengthened since we last saw the Blue Devils in action.
The level of continuity for Duke’s skill positions — and the coaches of those positions — should pay dividends in the form of a more-explosive offense.
3. Duke finishes top five in ACC
The context: We’re done with the Atlantic and Coastal divisions in the ACC, as the league is moving to a 14-team amorphous blob of a structure.
The two powerhouses of the Atlantic — formerly Florida State and currently Clemson — are going to be picked atop the ACC. Champions of preseason hype like UNC, Miami and N.C. State are likely to be picked next (order TBD), and the next tier will include some smattering of Duke, Wake Forest and Pittsburgh.
Why it’s bold: Annnd now we’re back to talking about schedule difficulty.
We’ve had a story already that helps lay out how much harder this season’s schedule is compared to last year’s.
Duke is bound to have some bumps in the road — phrasing that becomes literal. The stretch of four road games in five weeks spanning October and November — against teams that were a combined 43-23 last season — looks daunting.
There are going to be games this season in which Duke’s depth is stretched to a breaking point.
Why so confident: First of all, the preseason media poll is never accurate. So it’d benefit Duke — picked to finish last in the Coastal ahead of last season and came within a called-back touchdown against UNC of winning the division — to be picked near the bottom of the ACC.
But moving beyond meaningless preseason polls, confidence in the Blue Devils competing at the top of the league stems from how complete the roster is.
It’s not just an offense returning so many key contributors; it’s a good offense returning so many key parts. It’d be one thing to return a bunch of the same players who struggled through growing pains in the first year with a new staff; that’s not the case here. Duke was fifth in the ACC in scoring and fourth in total offense last season.
Defensively, you’re counting on more new faces than the offense will be, but still have the core of contributors returning. All three levels — DeWayne Carter, Cam Dillon and Brandon Johnson — have a player who’s capable of playing at an All-ACC level.