Summer preview: 5 most important games

They’re all big games.

You’ve got to take them one game at a time.

The next game is the biggest game simply because it’s the next game, no matter the opponent or circumstances.

Now that we’ve got the clichés out of the way, we can have a rational conversation.

Some games are bigger than others. Coaches occasionally admit it, players feel it and you know it. Football seasons have an ebb and flow and the only thing equal about each game is that it either counts as one tick in the win column or in the loss column.

Here, we’ll dive into which games mean the most to Duke in the upcoming season.

As a schedule reminder: This is one of those weird calendar years in which there are 14 weekends starting with Labor Day and ending with Thanksgiving. That’s why, for the first time since 2019, there are two off weeks on the schedule instead of one (and it’s going to be the case again next year).

Here are the five most important games for Duke to win this season:

Date: Sept. 28.

Location: Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham.

Series record; last meeting: UNC leads 65-41-4; UNC won 47-45 in double overtime last season.

Week before; week after: at Middle Tennessee; at Georgia Tech.

Overview: It’s not *just* the rivalry aspect.

Which one of the losses to UNC in the last two seasons was more painful? The one with nullified touchdowns in the fourth quarter and game-winning touchdown with 16 seconds left? Or the one in double overtime, Duke’s freshman quarterback going toe-to-toe with a top-five pick, and no shortage of questionable calls?

That is, of course, rhetorical.

Losses to the Tar Heels in each of the last two seasons have come in equally painful fashion. Players who meant so much to Duke’s program like DeWayne Carter and Graham Barton finished their careers without ever ringing the Victory Bell. Now comes another chance for Duke to snap what’s been a five-year streak of losing to UNC.

A win would …: Give Duke a 1-0 start in the ACC and, more importantly, give Manny Diaz a signature win in his first game with such stakes.

The second game of the season, at Northwestern, could be tricky. But the first four games are all non-conference games against opponents who, frankly, don’t move the needle a ton. If Duke starts the season 4-0, it’s still not likely going to be ranked.

But a win against UNC? Something Duke hasn’t done since Daniel Jones was the quarterback?

That would be worth a lot of bell rings.

Date: Nov. 30.

Location: Allegacy Stadium, Winston-Salem.

Series record; last meeting: Duke leads 60-41-2; Duke won 24-21 last season.

Week before; week after: vs. Virginia Tech; ACC championship(?)/end of regular season.

Overview: Mike Elko was 0-2 against UNC but he was 2-0 against his former boss, Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson.

Duke beat Wake Forest by a field goal in each of the last two years. For the private schools that play power conference football in the state of North Carolina, this is a game that always reverberates a little bit more, given how often they cross paths on the recruiting trail.

It feels right when these teams play each other in the final regular season game, since UNC and N.C. State have a showdown cemented onto the schedule for this weekend. This will be the second time in the last six seasons these teams end the season against each other.

A win would …: Obviously send the victor into a potential bowl game on the high note of winning a rivalry game.

It could also wind up meaning the winner punches a ticket to a bowl game. Neither team is expected to cruise into bowl eligibility, so there’s always a chance that one or both of them enters this game with five wins.

Date: Oct. 26.

Location: Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham.

Series record; last meeting: Duke leads 2-0; Duke won 14-6 in 1956.

Week before; week after: vs. Florida State; at Miami.

Overview: From games against two in-state rivals who Duke will have on the schedule through 2030 — assuming the ACC’s schedule model stays intact, which is no safe bet these days — to one against a team the Blue Devils last played during the Dwight D. Eisenhower administration.

SMU is the only one of the three newcomers to the ACC that Duke will play this season. That’s generally what lands the Mustangs here — in Duke’s only shot at a league newcomer, it’d be nice to score some early bragging rights.

That’s not the only reason, though.

It’s a matchup with a lot of coaching staff familiarity. SMU coach Rhett Lashlee was Diaz’s offensive coordinator for two seasons at Miami (2020-21). Duke offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer spent four seasons at SMU, in a pair of two-year stints, one of which was in the last two years as quarterbacks coach and then co-offensive coordinator.

A win would …: Score some bragging rights on multiple fronts.

As explained above, there’s a new league member and relationships between a few of these coaches.

And where this one falls on the schedule shouldn’t be ignored. In addition to the games against the Florida teams, Duke goes to Raleigh — a matchup that perhaps *should* be on this list — on Nov. 9. It’s a four-game stretch in which the Blue Devils play SMU and three teams among the favorites to be atop the ACC.

Notching a win against the Mustangs would be critical in this part of the season.

Date: Nov. 23.

Location: Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham.

Series record; last meeting: Virginia Tech leads 19-11; Duke won 24-7 in 2022.

Week before; week after: off; at Wake Forest.

Overview: Duke’s second off week comes in the middle of November, on the later side of where you’d want it.

And the Blue Devils emerge from it playing two games that line up as four of the most important ones (at least according to this list).

Regional rivalries matter, and Duke and Virginia Tech have faced off in a few recruiting battles over the last couple of years. Head-to-head wins aren’t going to be the sole factor in winning those battles; but they certainly don’t hurt.

A win would …: Mean Duke has come out of that grueling four-game stretch discussed in the section above, and an off week, to score a win against a team it figures to be jockeying for position with in the ACC.

The Blue Devils aren’t expected to compete for a league championship and the Hokies might have a little better of a chance to do so, but it’s unlikely. The most likely scenario is these will be a couple of teams vying for a bowl berth in the same tier, so a head-to-head result could matter in determining who gets the better assignment.

Date: Oct. 5.

Location: Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta.

Series record; last meeting: Georgia Tech leads 54-35-1; GT won 23-20 in overtime in 2022.

Week before; week after: vs. UNC; off.

Overview: Clearly it’s not the most important of Duke’s first six games, all of them coming before the first off week. There’s the UNC that tops this list, and road games at Northwestern and Middle Tennessee will be important for establishing some early momentum under Diaz.

This one being the last of that six-game salvo to start the season is why it’s here, though.

It’s not just a six-game sprint to the first off week; Duke goes through a month of fall camp leading into this game. There’s some fatigue that’s bound to take shape by this point on the calendar; some human nature to relax with an off week looming on the other side.

A win would …: Send Duke into its first off week with good vibes.

It’s hard to know exactly what Georgia Tech will look like. But the Yellow Jackets return quarterback Haynes King, who was responsible for over 3,500 yards and 37 touchdowns last season, to an offense that was electric last year.

If things materialize for Duke’s offense, this could wind up being a shootout — much different than Duke’s trip down to Atlanta two seasons ago.