Preview: Virginia at Duke

DURHAM – It’s easy to point to last season’s loss to Charlotte in the opener as the beginning of the end to Duke’s season.

After that loss, though, the Blue Devils reeled off three non-conference wins in a row to go into ACC play at 3-1 – the same record the current team has. After a defeat snatched from the jaws of victory against Georgia Tech in the second ACC game, Duke headed to Virginia.

That 48-0 loss was truly the beginning of the end; it was the first of six straight blowout losses to end what turned out to be David Cutcliffe’s final season as coach. It was also the seventh straight loss to Virginia.

Now with each program led by a new coach, the Blue Devils know the past doesn’t matter – while also aware of the prolonged stretch of Cavaliers wins in this series.

“We try to focus on ‘now,’” defensive tackle DeWayne Carter said, citing the program’s G.R.I.N.D. mantra. “But of course like, guys who have been here, we know how that feels. We know how it feels like the past couple of years … to go up there and play against them and the results that we’ve had.”

Mike Elko has made it clear that he wants the Blue Devils to press forward and leave behind the recent history of the program.

That means a laser-focused approach to execution.

“We’ve got to be able to execute for a full four quarters,” Elko said. “I think the only thing that we try to impress on our kids, it really started last week in the Kansas game, is just when you play teams where the skill level is identical or close, one way or the other … execution is more important.

“That’s where the little things that you don’t do right can cause you more problems than maybe when the talent is a little more lopsided in your favor.”

It’s also been quite a while since Duke won an ACC game.

The Blue Devils have lost 13 straight league games, dating back to a 38-24 win at Syracuse. This is Duke’s first of eight ACC games in the next nine weeks – so it’s the first chance for the new-look Blue Devils to distance themselves from the ineptitude of the last few seasons.

“It’s a different team but the same team in some sense,” offensive lineman Jacob Monk said. “I think internally we know what it’s felt like in the past couple of years of being unsuccessful in the conference.

“But also, it’s a new mindset as well. We don’t want to look too far in the past, but we have that internal feeling of what it has been.”

We’ll see how much of a driving factor that is against Virginia.

**********

Here’s a primer on what you need to know for Saturday night’s game:

Time: 7:30 p.m.

Location: Wallace Wade Stadium.

TV: Regional Sports Networks (Bally Sports South if you’re in N.C.)

Announcers: Tom Werme (play-by-play), James Bates (analyst), Lyndsay Rowley (sidelines).

Forecast: Mid-to-low 60s, cloudy, minimal winds.

Series; last meeting: Virginia leads 40-33; Virginia won 48-0 in 2021.

Records: Virginia 2-2, 0-1 ACC; Duke 3-1, 0-0.

Stat to watch: 212 yards per game | 252.5 yards allowed per game.

Virginia’s passing attack hasn’t exactly gotten off the ground this season; Duke’s passing defense has proved susceptible a couple of times.

The Cavaliers went from a team that had over 400 passing yards in six of 12 games last season to one that hasn’t cracked 300 in four games of 2022. It’s hard to fathom such a drop-off, especially when considering the quarterback (Brennan Armstrong) and top three receivers returned.

Duke’s breakdown isn’t quite that night-and-day from year to year. But the Blue Devils have two games of holding opponents under 150 passing yards (Temple and N.C. A&T) and two games of allowing 435 and 324 passing yards (Northwestern and Kansas, respectively).

It’s pretty simple here: Virginia needs its offense to regain at least some of its 2021 form; Duke needs to make sure that doesn’t happen this week.

Quote of the week: “I believe our confidence comes from our preparation because piss-poor preparation promotes piss-poor performance. And that’s something I try to live by, and that’s what we live by here as well.” – defensive tackle DeWayne Carter

Opposing offensive player to watch: Keytaon Thompson, all-purpose back (No. 99).

Last year’s version of Virginia’s offense was pick-your-poison of which receiver you wanted to get beaten by; this year’s version has seen drop-offs from nearly everybody.

Thompson is why the word “nearly” is in that sentence.

The converted quarterback is second in the ACC in receptions per game (6.5) and sixth in receiving yards per game (72.5). His lone touchdown of the season came on a 1-yard run last weekend at Syracuse.

Virginia lines Thompson up all over the field, using the 6-5, 216-pounder’s versatility and athleticism any way they can.

Opposing defensive player to watch: Linebacker Nick Jackson (No. 6).

Jackson has 263 tackles in Virginia’s last 26 games, combining the last two seasons with this year’s first four games.

And Duke will look to take advantage of his absence in the first half.

Jackson was ejected from last week’s game at Syracuse for a targeting penalty, leaving the Cavaliers without their top linebacker for the first half against the Blue Devils.

Young Blue Devil to watch: Defensive end Vincent Anthony Jr. (No. 19).

Anthony had two pressures in Duke’s first three games, and then the freshman had two pressures against Kansas’ Jalon Daniels last week (per Pro Football Focus).

The 6-6, 240-pounder from Durham has eight tackles, two of them for losses, with a pass break-up and fumble recovery this season. While he hasn’t been dominant, he’s seemingly figuring out the speed of the game a little more each week.

Armstrong might not be as dynamic a runner as Daniels – few in college might meet that level – but it’ll be a key for Duke’s defensive line to get pressure without getting out of rush lanes against him. Virginia’s QB rushed for 552 yards in 2020 and that dropped to 251 yards last season, but he’s already up to 179 yards this year.

Don’t forget about: Running backs Jaylen Coleman and Jordan Waters (Nos. 20 and 7).

Coleman had a season-low 34 yards against Kansas, while Waters’ 41 yards was his second-lowest of the season – the only one lower was 32 yards on five carries in the opener.

Duke’s running game on the whole was OK against the Jayhawks; it helped that Riley Leonard supplied 54 yards.

But it stands to reason that one or both of Duke’s running backs will get more going against Virginia.

The Cavaliers gave up 146 yards to Illinois’ Chase Brown on 20 carries in the Illini’s 24-3 win a few weeks ago.

Prediction: If you have a coin, now is the time to flip it.

Maybe I’m giving Virginia too much benefit of the doubt, but it feels like its offense could find its stride sooner rather than later. One of the key parts of this game will be whether Duke’s defense tackles better than it did against Kansas – 19 misses in 63 Jayhawks snaps (per PFF) was abysmal.

The Blue Devils getting back to fast starts would be a big help. Last weekend was the first time they had to play from behind and while the near comeback was admirable, it’s not a habit you’d like to form in ACC games.

Whatever hex Bronco Mendenhall had over David Cutcliffe in the coaching matchup ended in December – now we’ll see if that was any kind of factor in a Virginia-Duke game.