Published Nov 28, 2024
Preview: Seattle at No. 11 Duke
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Conor O'Neill  •  DevilsIllustrated
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Blue Devils in similar spot after second loss than they were after first loss

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Duke lost a neutral-court game because of some late-game errors against a blue blood that has more experience — and it showed.

Now the Blue Devils return home for a game against a mid-major, with another big non-conference game looming after this one.

Sound familiar?

Duke’s first loss was Kentucky in Atlanta; the Blue Devils returned home and beat Wofford by 51 a few days later.

Duke’s second loss was Kansas in Las Vegas earlier this week; the Blue Devils return home for a game against Seattle on Friday night, with its matchup against Auburn in the ACC-SEC Challenge on next week’s horizon.

The Blue Devils need to address some issues and a lot of the questions that about this team aren’t going to be answered against Seattle, no matter the margin.

Still, addressing them against Seattle would at least be a step in the right direction before things heat up again.

Here’s what to know ahead of Friday night’s game:

Time: 7 p.m.

Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium.

TV: ACC Network.

Series; last meeting: First meeting; N/A.

Records: Seattle 2-4; Duke 4-2.

Stat to watch: 23.5%.

That’s how often Duke turned the ball over against Kansas, nearly one-quarter of its possessions.

It’s hard to beat good teams when you don’t get a shot at the basket that often.

That’s Duke’s worst turnover rate of the season; it’s worse than all but two games last season. The Blue Devils’ turnover rate has actually gotten worse in each of its last three games.

- Despite losing to Kentucky and how the game ended, Duke had seven turnovers in 75 possessions (9.3%).

- Duke had 10 turnovers in 64 possessions against Wofford (15.6%).

- Duke had 14 turnovers in 68 possessions at Arizona (20.6%).

- And then Duke had 16 turnovers in 68 possessions against Kansas (23.5%).

Needless to say, that number can’t keep getting worse.

The inverse here is how much pressure Seattle applies, which — according to the numbers — is a fair amount. Opposing teams turn the ball over on 18.6% of possessions against the Redhawks, which is 133rd in the country (per KenPom).

Matchup to watch: Duke vs. its own defensive rotations.

Duke still has the best defensive efficiency rating in the country on KenPom, allowing 88.7 points per 100 possessions (or 0.89 per possession).

But the Blue Devils also have a tendency of losing track of switches and cutters.

It’s hard to be critical of a team that’s so good, for the most part, on the defensive end. But it’s also the one glaring defensive issue for this team right now. Too often, the Blue Devils get beat on a backdoor cut or lose track of a switching responsibility and it leads to a layup or open 3-pointer when the rest of the defense collapses.

Redhawk to watch: Center Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe (No. 12).

Averaging a double-double is going to land you in this spot most of the time — even if your team hasn’t played a Power-5 opponent yet.

Moncrieffe leads Seattle with both 14.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. The 6-8, 214-pounder has scored in double figures in every game and pulled down double-digit rebounds in four of six contests.

Moncrieffe is in his final season of eligibility after spending his first two at Oklahoma State, where he was a starter at the end of the season for a team that made the second round of the NCAA tournament, and then saw his playing time dwindle as a sophomore.

He spent the last two seasons at Georgia, starting 26 of the 28 games he played in his first season but only appearing in 16 games (four starts) last year.

Blue Devil to watch: Guard Caleb Foster (No. 1).

Duke’s sophomore guard is going to be under the microscope for a little while.

In the Blue Devils’ first three games against marquee opponents, he’s scored a combined 18 points on 6-for-20 shooting. He’s had four assists — all against Kentucky — and three turnovers in those games.

Foster only played 15 minutes against Kansas. That’s a season low, and he hadn’t played that low of a minutes count since a Jan. 29 game at Virginia Tech last season; he played seven games after that before suffering his season-ending injury.

Obviously and all due respect to Seattle, this isn’t a marquee opponent for Duke. But he’ll still be worth watching in this one to see where his confidence level is, with an eye toward next week’s games against Auburn and Louisville.

What’s on deck: As it says above — this is Duke’s one-game reprieve.

The Blue Devils play host to the team that’s probably the best in the country — or, at least, has the best résumé — on Wednesday night, with Auburn coming to Durham. The Tigers beat Houston early in the month and just ran through Iowa State, North Carolina and Memphis for the Maui Invitational crown.

Seattle heads back home to play Portland State on Wednesday.

KenPom prediction: Duke wins 80-59.

What a Duke loss looks like: How many more turnovers can Duke commit to lose this game?

That will have to be the first thing to happen — the Blue Devils being careless with the ball and turning it over on at least 25% of possessions.

Seattle would have to have some serious improvement on the defensive end, too. Opponents have an e-FG percentage of 59% against Seattle, which is the 12th-worst clip in the country (KenPom, going into Friday’s games).

What a Duke win looks like: The margin for error in this game is different than Duke’s last two games and its next two games.

This needs to be another get-right game for Duke. Seattle isn’t a very good defensive team; Duke needs to take advantage of that, especially with dribble-drives and lobs, to get easy offense at the rim.