Preview: No. 7 Duke at No. 3 North Carolina

It’s not that the last nine meetings between Duke and North Carolina were wrong.

It’s just that this latest iteration of the rivalry is the way it should be.

Saturday night’s latest edition of the best rivalry in sports is the first time since 2019 that both teams are ranked in the top 10. Duke heads to UNC trying to narrow the gap atop the ACC standings, while both are looking to solidify themselves as national championship contenders over the next five weeks.

“There’s always a hype and a buzz and excitement,” Duke coach Jon Scheyer said, “but for me, this is how it should be.”

The 2019 matchup came in the ACC tournament semifinals, with both teams eventually earning No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament. Duke won 74-73, beating Florida State the following night for the ACC title.

Of the nine games since that fated meeting — the only one that Zion Williamson played more than the opening minute — Duke has been ranked entering five of the games, and in the other four both teams were unranked.

“This is how it should be with our two programs and what they’ve done through the years,” Scheyer said. “There’s been a bunch of these games, but this is how it should be.”

The players’ perspective, at least that of Duke’s Jeremy Roach, doesn’t get too caught up in that side of it, though.

“Obviously it’s been one of the best rivalries in all of sports,” said Duke’s fourth-year guard. “It’s always the UNC-Duke rivalry, it doesn’t matter if top-ranked, not top-ranked.

“It’s always going to be a bloodbath every time we step across those lines. I’m just excited to compete in this rivalry and it’s going to be a crazy matchup on Saturday and I can’t wait for it.”

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Here’s what to know ahead of Saturday night’s game:

Time: 6:30 p.m.

Location: Smith Center, Chapel Hill.

TV: ESPN.

Announcers: Dan Shulman (play-by-play), Jay Bilas (analyst) and Jess Sims (sidelines).

Series; last meeting: UNC leads 143-117; Duke won 62-57 on March 4 last season, sweeping the season series (along with a 63-57 win in Durham).

Records: Duke 16-4, 7-2 ACC; UNC 17-4, 9-1.

Stats to watch: 38.7% | 29.9%.

The first number is Duke’s 3-point percentage, which is 15th-best in the country (per KenPom); the second is UNC’s defensive 3-point percentage, 22nd-best.

Where this stat shows more of a divide is ACC-only games. Duke has made 40.3% of its 3-pointers; UNC has held ACC teams to a 26.8% clip.

Quick, off the top of your head, can you think of the last “bad” shooting game Duke had?

The Blue Devils have made between eight and 11 3-pointers in each of the last nine games (the last eight being ACC games). They’ve made at least 40% of their 3s in five of those nine games.

Duke can stretch defenses in a way that few others can because the Blue Devils are comfortable with most in their rotation taking 3s. In what has become an eight-man rotation, six Blue Devils have taken at least 25 3s this season. Along with the four guards, Kyle Filipowski is shooting 37.3% (25 of 67) and Mark Mitchell has worked through his early season slump.

UNC makes most of its opponents have bad shooting nights — though, that’s trending in the other direction lately.

In the Tar Heels’ first eight ACC games, opponents shot 22.5% (38 of 169). That includes a 1-for-18 by Clemson, a 3-for-20 by Wake Forest and a 5-for-29 by Pitt.

But the last two teams, Florida State and Georgia Tech, to play the Tar Heels were both 9-for-20 on 3-pointers. And it’s not like those are the two best 3-point shooting teams in the ACC; FSU is 193rd in 3-point accuracy and GT is 222nd.

That helps explain why, after a margin of plus-127 in winning those first eight games, UNC beat FSU by seven and lost at GT.

Matchup to watch, part I: Duke’s Tyrese Proctor (No. 5) and Jeremy Roach (No. 3) vs. UNC’s RJ Davis (No. 4).

They don’t hand out player of the year awards at the halfway point of the ACC slate.

That said, it’ll be tough for anyone to overcome Davis.

UNC’s fourth-year guard leads the ACC with 21.5 points per game, which is eighth in the country and second among power conference players (behind Zach Edey’s 23.4 average). Davis is a three-level scorer who, because of the development of freshman Elliot Cadeau, has a point guard’s control of the offense in the role of an off-ball scorer.

It might be guesswork, but reason would suggest Duke deploys Proctor and Roach as Davis’ primary defenders.

Proctor became Duke’s pick to guard the opponent’s best guard over the second half of last season. When he missed four games in December, that responsibility shifted to Roach; and then with Roach dealing with knee and ankle ailments recently, Proctor took his spot in the starting lineup and again took on those assignments.

Through the sprained ankles of both and Roach’s tweaked knee, Duke now has both healthy — and two options to throw at Davis.

At 6-5, Proctor is the matchup against Davis should the Blue Devils want to throw length at him (listed at 6-foot, 180). Roach is listed at 6-2, 180, and is the veteran option, matching Davis in experience.

You’re likely to see both of Duke’s guards match up against Davis; the question will be which one proves effective (if at all).

Matchup to watch, part II: Who goes big first?

Both of these teams start three guards, with Duke even having started four twice in the last month.

If Duke starts the lineup it’s had in the last two games, that’s Proctor with the freshmen, Caleb Foster and Jared McCain, and then Roach coming off the bench. For UNC, Davis has started every game, Cadeau moved into the starting lineup in late November and Cormac Ryan has started all but two games.

But there’s a who-blinks-first? aspect of this matchup.

Duke can go big by putting Filipowski back at 4-position he played last year, Mitchell at the 3, and either Ryan Young or Sean Stewart at the 5. Long-range shooting is sacrificed a bit, but it adds length.

It could be necessary against a UNC team that has recently shown a willingness to put forward Harrison Ingram (6-7, 235) at the 3, plug in Jae’Lyn Withers (6-9, 215) at the 4, and play either Armando Bacot or Jalen Washington at the 5.

Tar Heel to watch: Center Armando Bacot (No. 5).

Just to confirm: This is, indeed, his final season of eligibility.

Bacot will be playing in his 10th Duke-UNC game.

The 6-11, 240-pounder has averaged 15.1 points and 9.4 rebounds across his first nine games against the Blue Devils. The highlights — lowlights for Duke — have been a 23-point game in the 2022 regular-season finale in Durham (his only 20-point game against Duke), and a 21-rebound game when these teams met in the Final Four a month later.

It’s a new role for Bacot this year. UNC’s offense isn’t as reliant on feeding him the ball in the low post and his usage rates are at a career low (21.3% of UNC’s possessions when he’s on the court end with either a shot or turnover from him; last year it was 27.2%, per KenPom).

That helps explain why he’s scored in single-digits for the last three games — five points against Wake Forest and FSU, nine against GT. It’s the first time he’s had a stretch like that since his freshman season (2019-20).

What he’s done against Duke, though, makes you think it’s not a single-digit streak that’s going to continue.

Blue Devil to watch: Center Kyle Filipowski (No. 30).

Well, I guess this is another matchup to watch with both centers being featured as players to watch. That was unintentional.

We’re entering mercurial territory with Duke’s sophomore center.

Filipowski can look like the best player not named Edey in college basketball. He’s a 7-footer who makes 3s, initiates offense from the top of the key, is a threat on pick-and-roll as much as he is on pick-and-pop, and can score through the low post. We’re a few weeks removed from him averaging 25 points and 9.3 rebounds, making 11 of 15 3-pointers, in a three-game span.

But Filipowski’s lows sink lower than you’d expect for a player of his talent. He’s 1-for-10 on 3s in the last three games, committing three turnovers in each game. His scoring average is 13.3 in that span. Filipowski was a 76.5% free-throw shooter last season, was at 70.6% through the first 15 games of this season, and has made 23 of 40 (57.5%) in Duke’s last five games.

This would be a nice time for him to snap out of his mini-slump. Filipowski scored 14 points on 4-for-14 shooting and had seven rebounds in his first game against UNC, and then had a 22-point, 13-rebound game in Chapel Hill at the end of last season.

Ironically, that game last year saw him play minutes at the 5-spot where he now starts because of foul trouble elsewhere.

What’s on deck: Duke has three home games in a six-day span starting Wednesday night.

The Blue Devils have a rematch against a Notre Dame that played them tight up in South Bend about a month ago. On Saturday, it’s a home game against Boston College, followed by a Monday night visit by Wake Forest.

Though this one is the main matchup, UNC has back-to-back games against the ACC’s locks for an NCAA tournament bid (seemingly); the Tar Heels play host to Clemson on Tuesday night.

KenPom prediction: UNC wins 78-73.

Devils Illustrated prognosis: I don’t know, what more is there to add?

I won’t go full Bilas but this game rarely disappoints. It’s a state holiday (or should be). The atmosphere is unlike any other.

It’s better when both teams are at or near the top of the ACC. And when there are players well versed in the rivalry.

Not to get too sappy and give you the, “I just hope everybody has fun” line … this is bound to be a high-level, boundless-energy game that’s going to feel like momentum swings on every bucket and every stop.