Published Feb 16, 2025
Preview: No. 3 Duke at Virginia
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Conor O'Neill  •  DevilsIllustrated
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Blue Devils look to use lessons from first quick turnaround of ACC play

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The last time of the ACC schedule that Duke played two games in three days, they were a couple of grinds.

Those were the Blue Devils’ slugfest of a 63-56 win at Wake Forest — still the fewest points for Duke this season — and the 74-64 win against N.C. State that saw Duke trail by 11 in the second half.

So, in that regard and headed into Monday night’s game at Virginia, Duke is already ahead of the curve — having dismantled Stanford by 36 on Saturday.

“I think it’s a wake-up call for the younger guys, they haven’t been in situations like this,” junior guard Tyrese Proctor said. “I’ve obviously had experience in it but I think recovery is just a big thing.

“And then mentally, just being able to lock in for the next scout.”

Duke has one more Saturday-Monday swing on the schedule, playing Florida State and Wake Forest at home on March 1 and 3, respectively.

Of course, the Blue Devils would like to have several more quick-turnaround games, starting with the ACC tournament and running through the first week of April.

“The games with a one-day break in between are where we want to be playing and we want to play a lot of them,” freshman Kon Knueppel said. “So, we’re taking it as another opportunity to practice what that’ll be like in March and we’ll get after it.”

Nobody is going to confuse Virginia for an NCAA tournament team, but the Cavaliers are playing better of late. They’ve won three straight and five of their last seven games, having scored a couple of road wins at Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech recently.

Strangely enough, Virginia’s three-game win streak is the longer streak between these teams. Duke won both games of the past week coming off last weekend’s loss at Clemson.

Between the 21-point win against California and 36-point conquest against Stanford, though, the Blue Devils look to have quickly regained whatever momentum was lost in their first ACC defeat.

“Whether it’s a win or a loss, Coach (Jon Scheyer) always tells us to stay humble and have humility,” guard Sion James said, “and recognize there (are) things to learn.

“Losses sting a little bit more, so that kind of ups the sense of urgency. But, same message whether it’s a win or a loss. Flush it and keep getting better.”

Here’s what to know ahead of Monday night’s game:

Time: 8 p.m.

Location: John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, Va.

TV: ESPN.

Announcers: Dave O’Brien (play-by-play) and Cory Alexander (analyst).

Series; last meeting: Duke leads 125-54; Duke won 73-48 in Durham last season.

Records: Duke 22-3, 14-1 ACC; Virginia 13-12, 6-8.

Stat to watch: 70-plus.

You might want to be sitting down for this one.

Virginia has scored more than 70 points in five straight games.

This is not Tony Bennett’s Virginia — as strange as that is, given he pulled a parachute on coaching this season a few weeks before the season opener, handing over the reins to Ron Sanchez as interim coach.

Virginia has leapt up almost 100 spots in offensive efficiency from last season to this one, in KenPom’s rankings. The Cavaliers were No. 200 last year, scoring 105.1 points per 100 possessions; they’re scoring 110.7 per 100 possessions this season, which is 111th entering Sunday’s games.

Granted, Virginia has the record it does because its defense also doesn’t resemble what you came to expect from Bennett-coached teams. Virginia gives up 104.7 points per 100 possessions, which is 116th in the country; in 15 seasons under Bennett, that efficiency number was over 95.0 three times (two of them in his first two seasons) and Virginia had a top-five defense seven times.

Matchup to watch: Duke’s defensive rotations vs. Virginia guard Isaac McKneely.

There’s no secret about the key to slowing down Virginia’s offense.

McKneely is one of the best shooters in the ACC. He entered the season as a career 42.3% 3-point shooter, having taken 4.7 of them per game in his first two seasons at Virginia. So, everybody knows his reputation — and he’s still made 78 of 187 (41.7%) this season.

He’s been hot in the last two games. The 6-4, 195-pounder was 4-for-9 from long range and scored 20 points against Georgia Tech, and then was 6-for-14 on 3s with 22 points against Virginia Tech.

Duke can take shooters out of their comfort zones, though.

- Stanford’s Maxime Raynaud scored 19 points and made four 3s on Saturday, but he took 21 shots to get there and scored one point in the second half.

- Louisville’s Reyne Smith, leading the ACC in made 3s, was 3-for-9 from long range against Duke in December.

- Clemson’s Chase Hunter is fourth in the ACC with 2.46 made 3-pointers per game, but he only made one and took two against Duke last weekend.

The chess match within this game of Duke running McKneely off the 3-point line and limiting his looks will be fascinating.

Cavalier to watch: Guard Andrew Rohde (No. 4).

Introducing you to the most unconventional point guard in the ACC.

Rohde is a 6-6, 200-pound junior who spent most of last season — his first with the Cavaliers after transferring from St. Thomas — playing the 3-position. He showed some distributor skills last season, with 90 assists in 33 games.

Virginia moved onto the ball during the season and he’s flourishing.

Rohde has nine assists in each of the last three games. The two turnovers he committed Saturday at Virginia Tech are the only two he’s committed in these past three games — a 27-2 assist-to-turnover rate is going to pop off the page.

In the past month, he’s also had a seven-assist, zero-turnover game against VT and a six-assist, zero-turnover game against Boston College.

It’s not just ball movement to watch with Rohde; he’s a 40.8% 3-point shooter.

Blue Devil to watch: Guard Tyrese Proctor (No. 5).

Each one of his games lately presses the combined 3-for-18 against Wake Forest and N.C. State further from your memory.

Proctor’s 23 points against Stanford matched his season high, which he set a week before at Clemson. He’s averaging 19.4 points across Duke’s last five games, which started with his 17-point game against UNC.

“His preparation has been high level,” Scheyer said after Saturday’s game. “I think for him, he’s done two things incredibly well that’s, to me, why he’s going to be in the NBA for a long time. It’s his shooting and it’s his competitiveness in his defense.

“He can do a lot more than those two things. But I think the strength of his game is built on those two things and he’s embraced it.”

Indeed, that’s where it’s always worth noting Proctor is going to draw the defensive assignment of the opponent’s best guard. Former teammate Jaylen Blakes was about 12 points under his season scoring average and 1-for-10 from the field on Saturday.

What’s on deck: Duke’s break from ACC play is coming up this weekend.

The Blue Devils play Illinois on Saturday at Madison Square Garden. Duke’s trip to the famed arena comes later in the season but it’s a big one, as Illinois is better than most of the ACC teams Duke has beaten up on for the past couple of months.

Virginia comes out of this one and heads to Tobacco Road, facing UNC on Saturday.

KenPom prediction: Duke wins 73-58.

Injury report: Duke seems to be as healthy as it’s been all season, with 13 players checking into Saturday’s blowout of Stanford.

Virginia appears to be healthy, too. The Cavaliers played nine players, eight of them for at least 16 minutes, in Saturday’s victory at Virginia Tech.

What a Duke loss looks like: Looking at McKneely’s ability to be a game-breaker gives you the idea that Virginia has to have at least 15 points, 3-4 3-pointers from him to win.

Rohde putting up another nine assists would be great for Virginia’s offense, too. Only 53.5% of field goals against Duke are assisted (221st-lowest in the country, per KenPom), so that would mean some out-of-character defense from the Blue Devils.

But this ultimately comes down to Duke’s focus and recovery on a one-day prep. If those things are lacking, an upset could be within reach for Virginia.

What a Duke win looks like: So, we’ll start with where that last point ends.

Dialing into the game plan and getting their bodies back are the main things that have to happen for a Duke win. Those are before Khaman Maluach jumps for the tip against Blake Buchanan.

And then it’s a matter of this being one of the most complete Duke teams we’ve seen in a while. The Blue Devils are the only team in the country with top-five ranks in offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom.

Duke is coming off a game with 14 3-pointers and Virginia has tended to give up some high percentages lately. VT was 10-for-24 against Virginia on Saturday; Georgia Tech was 8-for-18 last weekend. Virginia’s last two losses have seen its opponent make 11 of 21 3s (VT) and 12 of 23 3s (Notre Dame).

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