Preview: No. 12 Duke at Virginia Tech

A down-to-the-wire home win on a Saturday in January. The first of three Saturday-Monday swings on tap, with a trip to Virginia Tech looming in the second half of that back-to-back.

That was the case last year; it’s the case for Duke’s basketball team again right now.

Duke beat Miami 68-66 on Jan. 21 last season; two days later, it lost at Virginia Tech 78-75.

Duke beat Clemson 72-71 on Saturday; two days later … the Blue Devils head to Blacksburg, Va.

“Clemson, I think they’re a really good team,” coach Jon Scheyer said after Saturday’s game. “To find a way to win, sometimes that’s what it’s about. And we have to move on quickly to get ready for Monday.”

In Duke's first two Saturday-Monday instances last season, the Blue Devils won a home game in the first game and lost a road game in the second one. It wasn't until the third and final Saturday-Monday swing that Duke won both games (when both were home games).

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Here’s what to know ahead of Monday night’s game:

Time: 7 p.m.

Location: Cassell Coliseum, Blacksburg, Va.

TV: ESPN.

Announcers: Dave O’Brien (play-by-play), Corey Alexander (analyst) and Angel Gray (sidelines).

Series; last meeting: Duke leads 52-13; Duke won 81-65 on Feb. 25 last season, as the teams split regular-season meetings.

Records: Duke 15-4, 6-2 ACC; Virginia Tech 13-7, 5-4.

Stat to watch: 38.1% | 71.9%.

The first percentage is Duke’s assist rate against Clemson, with eight assists on 21 field goals; the second is VT’s assist rate against Georgia Tech on Saturday, with 23 assists on 32 buckets.

We’ve discussed Duke’s assist rate plenty this season. It’s still worth discussing.

The Blue Devils had seven assists on 11 field goals in the first half against Clemson. That’s when they led by as much as 12 and took a six-point lead to halftime.

It was one assist on 10 field goals in the second half. That lone assist was Jared McCain getting into the paint and getting trapped, finding Tyrese Proctor nearly out of bounds on the sideline, and Proctor rattling home a long-range 3 with the shot clock winding down.

With Duke’s offense, it really does feel as simple as looking at assist rate to know if it’s operating well.

Virginia Tech is in a similar spot.

In the Hokies’ four ACC losses, all of which came between Dec. 30 and Jan. 17, their assist rates were 50%, 36%, 42.9% and 67%. That last one is the outlier; it was a 65-57 loss at Virginia in which VT shot 38.9% and turned the ball over 15 times.

In the Hokies’ five ACC wins, they’ve been above 50% every time, including that 71.9% clip in Saturday’s 24-point throttling of Georgia Tech. What’s more impressive about VT’s assist rate being at those levels is four of the five teams VT has beaten in the ACC — Clemson, N.C. State, Boston College and GT — have defensive assist rates of 50% or below on the season.

Matchup to watch: Duke’s Tyrese Proctor (No. 5) vs. VT’s Sean Pedulla (No. 3).

With Jeremy Roach hobbled by his right ankle injury and coming off the bench, Proctor was back in the same defensive role he embraced last year — guarding the opponent’s best guard — against Clemson.

Joseph Girard III had 13 points, but six of those came on 3s on scramble plays, and he was mostly ineffective for the first 30 minutes of Saturday’s game. Pedulla spends more time running VT’s offense than Girard does of Clemson’s, but they’re similar shooters and builds, and it’s likely Duke opts for Proctor on Pedulla to disrupt the flow of the Hokies’ offense.

It’ll be interesting to see who VT plugs onto Proctor — the likely scenario is Hunter Cattoor or MJ Collins, both of whom have more length, at 6-3 and 6-4, respectively, than the 6-1 Pedulla.

Proctor is riding the hot hand with 42 points in the last two games, a career-high and a couple of game-deciding free throws to really make his impact pop. A few weeks ago, that was Pedulla, averaging 30.3 points across a three-game span.

He’s cooled off a bit, scoring 14 points a game across the last four, but is still the most important part of VT’s offense.

Hokie to watch: Guard Hunter Cattoor (No. 0).

He’s still there, working on a fifth season, all of which have been at Virginia Tech after he committed to Wofford before Mike Young moved from the Terriers to Hokies in 2019.

Cattoor is working on his fifth season of shooting above 40% on 3-pointers. He’s been a thorn in the Blue Devils’ side twice, the first time scoring 31 (7-for-9 on 3s) in the ACC championship in 2022; the second scoring 15 (5-for-10 on 3s) in last year’s win in Blacksburg, Va.

Duke locked him down in the rematch last season, as he had more turnovers and fouls (three each) than field goals (two), and he missed the only two 3s he attempted.

The 6-3, 200-pounder has been efficient lately, averaging 15.7 points during VT’s three-game win streak and making 9 of 17 3-pointers. He also has 11 rebounds, 10 assists and five steals during this streak.

Blue Devil to watch: Forward Mark Mitchell (No. 25).

The stat got updated again; Duke is 26-2 across the last two seasons when Mitchell scores at least 10 points.

He’s hit that threshold in 9 of the last 10 games he’s played, picking up in these last two games where he left off before a two-game absence for a knee injury. The 6-9, 232-pounder has three 20-point games this month; he had one in the first 46 games of his Duke career.

More impressive against Clemson, though, was Mitchell’s defense.

Because Kyle Filipowski was in foul trouble, Mitchell spent the last several minutes of Saturday’s game defending Clemson center and likely first-team All-ACC pick PJ Hall. The last two steals Duke had in the string of Clemson’s four in the last two minutes came with the Tigers trying to enter the ball to Hall, and Mitchell denying those entries.

“They’re a big team, very physical. We knew that coming into the game,” Mitchell said of Clemson. “We knew the post-ups and (Ian) Schieffelin and Hall, we knew it was going to be tough. But we just tried to battle through it.”

Virginia Tech is physical in different ways. The Hokies will post up Lynn Kidd but that’s about it; the physicality the Blue Devils will have to play through Monday night will be in the form of constant off-ball screens.

What’s on deck: Well, you probably know which one comes next.

Duke goes to Chapel Hill on Saturday to face the team with a two-game lead atop the ACC standings. North Carolina has trailed at halftime at each of the last two games and won the second halves by a combined 34 points. UNC is at Georgia Tech on Tuesday night before the first entry in the greatest rivalry in sports is played next weekend.

Virginia Tech is at Miami on Saturday and has a chance to pay the Hurricanes back for a four-point loss in Blacksburg earlier this month.

KenPom prediction: Duke wins 75-73.

Devils Illustrated prognosis: I don’t know that I’d trust KenPom too much on that one.

These teams are trending in opposite directions. Duke played two underwhelming games in the past week; wins shouldn’t be taken for granted, but you can’t help but feel like the Blue Devils aren’t maximizing their talent.

Virginia Tech has won three straight games to put itself in the NCAA bubble conversation and just steamrolled a GT team that has wins against Duke and Clemson, and has kept things tight in its other six ACC losses.

Throw in Duke’s recent history at Cassell Coliseum — the Blue Devils have lost five of their last six there — and getting out of Blacksburg with a win feels like an uphill climb.