Published Nov 25, 2024
Preview: No. 11 Duke vs. No. 1 Kansas
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Conor O'Neill  •  DevilsIllustrated
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Blue Devils learned from first big game to second one; now they have to keep it going against top-ranked Jayhawks 

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There was no beating around the bush or avoiding the obvious.

Tyrese Proctor was asked after Friday night’s win at Arizona what helped push the Blue Devils through the second half and his answer was, at least initially, one word.

“Kentucky.”

Yes, there was more. We’ll get to that. But first, the basics:

- Duke led by nine at halftime against Kentucky in the Champions Classic; the Blue Devils lost the second half by 14, with a final score of 77-72. Duke’s defense suffered in the second half and its offense went stagnant, with only Cooper Flagg making a shot from the field in the last 10½ minutes.

- Duke led by seven at halftime against Arizona; the Blue Devils also won the second half by seven, with a final of 69-55. Duke’s defense was elite for the entire game, stifling an Arizona team to the tune of 0.82 points per possession and getting a couple of dagger 3-pointers by Kon Knueppel in the closing minutes.

“Kentucky was a really good test,” Proctor continued. “Coming out of halftime in this game, we talked about Kentucky, and we huddled before we went back out, and we just said, we have to a have a better start than we did back then.

“And we came out a little shaky, but we stayed together. I think everyone just came as one and we didn't separate. We trusted our work, like Coach (Jon Scheyer) said, and we just knew we could pull through the second half.”

In so many words, it’s why Scheyer created the schedule this way. Duke has experience with the three transfers who come off the bench, and Proctor and Foster have experience as returning guards.

But Duke also remains a team that starts three freshmen, and if Scheyer goes deeper into his rotation than those eight, he’s picking one of three freshmen.

It’s a team that has to grow up in a hurry and took some leaps forward in that purview Friday night.

The Blue Devils have to keep moving forward, as it doesn’t get easier.

“The connectivity of our team to be able to bounce back after a tough loss and to … move on” was encouraging, Scheyer said. “We talk about having to move on and have that ‘next play’ mentality, and we’ve had that. Incredibly proud.”

Duke’s next play comes against Kansas.

Here’s what to know ahead of Tuesday night’s game:

Time: 9 p.m. (6 local time).

Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas.

TV: ESPN.

Announcers: Karl Ravech (play-by-play), Fran Fraschilla (analyst) and Kris Budden (sidelines).

Series; last meeting: Duke leads 8-6; Kansas won 69-64 in the Champions Classic two seasons ago.

Records: Duke 4-1; Kansas 5-0.

Stats to watch: 118.2 | 87.9.

The first number is Kansas’ offensive efficiency rating on KenPom and it’s the 14th-best clip in the country; the second is Duke’s defensive efficiency rating, and it’s No. 1 in the country.

Kansas has been … decent offensively in the early going. The Jayhawks have scored over 1.2 points per possession in three of five games, scored 1.19 against North Carolina, and survived their worst offensive game of the season — a 77-69 win over Michigan State in the Champions Classic, when Kansas scored 0.98 ppp.

The Jayhawks rely heavily on senior center Hunter Dickinson — more on him below, of course — and guard Zeke Mayo, who transferred in after three seasons at South Dakota State. Dickinson has taken 65 shots, Mayo has taken 51, and no other Jayhawk has taken more than 40.

Duke has had the 16th-ranked defense on KenPom in each of the last two seasons and one of those is not like the other. The Blue Devils’ first season under Scheyer saw their defense gradually become dominant — as Dereck Lively II’s confidence rose — and last season, well, when it was good it was elite and the floor for the collective defensive performance was awfully low.

The early returns on how the Blue Devils have looked so far are a return to two seasons ago. Duke has held four of its five opponents to season-low offensive efficiency clips; the exception is Maine, which scored 0.84 against Duke and then laid a clunker at Quinnipiac (0.81 in a 58-55 loss).

Matchup to watch: Duke’s frontcourt vs. Kansas’ frontcourt.

This was going to be all about Dickinson until the realization that former Duke recruiting target Flory Bidunga has had a decent start to his career, albeit in limited minutes.

Dickinson is the one, though. The fifth-year 7-footer has scored 2,297 points in his career between three seasons at Michigan and one-plus at Kansas. He has played in 131 games and fouled out four times; Dickinson is only committing 2.3 fouls per 40 minutes (KenPom), while drawing 5.1 per 40 minutes.

Therein lies the issue for Duke’s frontcourt.

Both of the Blue Devils’ centers, Khaman Maluach and Maliq Brown, are committing 4.8 fouls per 40 minutes. Neither of them draws many fouls, either; Brown at 2.9 fouls drawn per 40 and Maluach at 1.5.

The foul count for big men in this game has to remain equal. If the Blue Devils’ centers get hamstrung by early foul trouble, Dickinson will feast — puntentional, given what week it is — on Duke’s interior defense.

Of course, if Duke gets Dickinson out of the game because of his foul situation, it will have the advantage. It’s not just on Duke’s centers to draw fouls on him; Flagg draws 5.2 fouls per 40 and Sion James draws 3.5.

EvanMiya lineup note: Two top-10 players.

This is hardly breaking news, but this game features two of the top 10 players in the country in EvanMiya’s Bayesian Performance Rating, defined as, “the ultimate measure of a player’s overall value to his team when he is on the floor.”

Flagg is fourth in the country at a rating of 7.84. Duke’s adjusted efficiency numbers with him on the court are: 1.14 points per possession on offense, allowing 0.73 ppp on defense.

Dickinson is sixth in the country, at 7.55. Kansas scores 1.17 ppp with him on the court and allows 0.82 ppp.

Jayhawk to watch: Guard Zeke Mayo (No. 5).

A local product who had to go win the Summit League twice and score over 1,500 points in three seasons before coming home.

Mayo became a starter for the Jackrabbits halfway through his freshman season and was a star before departing after last season. The Lawrence High School graduate gets to play his final season as a Jayhawk and he’s had an interesting first five games.

The 6-4, 185-pounder scored a combined 40 points in his first two games, including a 21-point game in beating UNC.

He’s scored 23 points in three games since, though, going 1-for-12 on 3-pointers. Mayo has contributed in other ways, with 10 rebounds and seven assists in the Champions Classic win over Michigan State and a combined 12 assists and four turnovers in the last three games.

Blue Devil to watch: Wing Kon Knueppel (No. 7).

It’s been a bit of feast-or-famine with Knueppel in Duke’s two big games so far.

And the Blue Devils sure are fortunate he ended Friday night’s game set on the former.

The freshman hit two dagger 3-pointers late to close out Arizona, part of his 13-point game — 11 of those coming in the second half. The 6-7, 217-pounder looked overwhelmed for most of the first half, which was a continuation of how he looked in the second half against Kentucky, before burying the Wildcats (the ones from the desert, at least).

Now, we’ll see how much of Knueppel’s late-game prowess is carried north to Las Vegas for this game.

What’s on deck: Duke comes home for a one-game reprieve of playing elite teams.

The Blue Devils play host to Seattle on Friday night. Even though the game is in Durham, it’s part of the Las Vegas Showdown; Seattle plays Furman as the opening act before Duke-Kansas. Duke’s next game after playing Seattle, which is 2-3, is at home against Auburn in the ACC-SEC Challenge next Wednesday night.

Kansas plays host to Furman on Saturday as it completes the Las Vegas Showdown. And then the Jayhawks have a big game of their own next Wednesday night, traveling to Creighton.

KenPom prediction: Duke wins 75-71.

What a Duke loss looks like: It revolves around the foul situation for the big men.

Dickinson could take over this game if he’s able to get Duke’s centers into scenarios where they’re either on the bench, or on the court and unable to defend him for fear of picking up more fouls. The first 4-5 minutes of this game, and how it’s called, will be worth monitoring closely.

A loss also probably means Duke’s 3-point shooting resembles the 4-for-24 it had against Kentucky and not the 45.8% it’s shooting in the other four games.

What a Duke win looks like: Starting with that last point — Duke has averaged 13.3 made 3s in its four wins.

With how this team plays defense, if the Blue Devils even come close too hitting that many 3s, it’s going to mean a 2-0 west coast trip has been accomplished.

Even without the 3s, if Duke defends to the same level as it did against Arizona, it’s going to be hard for the Blue Devils to lose. Holding Kansas under 1.0 ppp would be a tall task — but within the realm of possibility for a Duke team as strong defensively as it is.