Published Jan 26, 2025
Preview: N.C. State at No. 2 Duke
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Conor O'Neill  •  DevilsIllustrated
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Blue Devils introduce new defensive pitch and it immediately paid off

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Sometimes when Jon Scheyer talks about defensive approaches, you’d think he was a pitching coach.

Duke’s third-year coach has talked throughout the season of having a “fastball and splinker” in respect to centers Khaman Maluach and Maliq Brown. The difference there is in the sizes; Maluach as the 7-2, 250-pound rim protector and Brown (6-9, 222) as the smaller, still-disruptive option.

Naturally, with Duke basically unveiling a 2-3 zone defense for the first time in Saturday’s win at Wake Forest, there needed to be a distinction on what pitch that was.

“We’ve kept it in our back pocket and it’s good to have a curveball,” Scheyer said after Saturday’s 63-56 win at Wake Forest. “Even if it’s not, maybe, the best zone in the world.”

Wherever it ranks in the world, it was exactly what Duke needed against the Deacons. Wake’s offense was rolling and went stagnant when the Blue Devils played a defense they’d played one possession of this season.

And as Scheyer noted, it’s in Duke’s back pocket. If it’s only deployed in crack-glass-in-case-of-emergency situations, it might get predictable — but it’s also an extra wrinkle Duke’s opponents will have to consider.

It’s also bound to improve, given freshman Cooper Flagg admitted he had never played zone in his career before Saturday.

“We kind of worked on it at the start of the year and we’ve always had it there,” Flagg said of the zone. “Kind of practiced it a little bit coming into this game, thinking we might need to throw something else at them.”

Here’s what to know ahead of Monday night’s game:

Time: 8:30 p.m.

Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium.

TV: ESPN.

Series; last meeting: Duke leads 152-105; N.C. State won 76-64 in the Elite 8 last season.

Records: N.C. State 9-10, 2-6 ACC; Duke 17-2, 9-0.

Stat to watch: 23.7%.

That was Duke’s turnover percentage against Wake Forest on Saturday; it was the worst of the season for the Blue Devils.

Duke had done a great job of protecting the ball and valuing possession of it for about a month and a half. Before Saturday, one of the previous eight games saw Duke with a turnover rate above 20%; and that was in a 29-point win over Pittsburgh.

Wake Forest excels at turning teams over, though, and did so against the Blue Devils — to the tune of 16 turnovers. In a game the Deacons only scored 56 points, 12 of them came after Duke turnovers.

Now, the Blue Devils face an N.C. State team that also excels in forcing turnovers.

N.C. State has recorded a defensive turnover rate over 20% in 11 of 19 games this season. The Wolfpack’s 20.4% clip for the season is 48th in the country (KenPom, entering Sunday’s games). It’s down a little bit, to 18% in ACC games only — but the Wolfpack forced SMU into 15 turnovers in Saturday’s game.

Matchup to watch: N.C. State’s Dontrez Styles (No. 3) vs. Duke’s Cooper Flagg (No. 2).

Kind of an unenviable position for Styles, who’s giving up 3 inches in a matchup against Flagg.

Duke’s freshman star is averaging 24.9 points across the last seven games. In six of those seven, he has shot 50% or better. He’s also averaging 5.3 assists in this stretch.

Styles is 6-6, 210 and averaging 9.1 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. He’s not shooting 3s that well (21 of 71, 29.6%), nor is his free-throw clip impressive (21 of 32, 65.6%).

According to EvanMiya, Styles is the second-worst defensive player in N.C. State’s rotation.

Wolf to watch: Guard Paul McNeil Jr. (No. 2).

We’re going off the map with this pick.

But N.C. State is searching for something, having lost four straight and six of its last seven.

The Wolfpack had eight players play at least 15 minutes against SMU on Saturday, and another four played between 2-7 minutes.

McNeil was one of the players who got an extended look and showed a glimpse he could do more than what he’s shown this season. The freshman had a season-best eight points in 15 minutes, along with three rebounds and three assists.

Blue Devil to watch: Center Khaman Maluach (No. 9).

Easy bounce-back selection here.

Maluach had his first scoreless game of the season at Wake Forest. In fact, he didn’t register a shot attempt in his 18 minutes. He did have three rebounds and two blocks, but fellow freshman center Patrick Ngongba II was more effective and played 21 minutes.

This should line up as a better matchup for the 7-2, 250-pounder. N.C. State plays either Ben Middlebrooks or Brandon Huntley-Hatfield at center, neither of whom is much of a scorer or lockdown defender.

What’s on deck: Three straight Tobacco Road games for Duke is a little odd — but no complaints, because they’re typically big games.

And next up is the biggest, as Duke plays North Carolina at Cameron on Saturday night. The Tar Heels and Blue Devils have alternated season sweeps of the series in the last two years; Duke swept UNC in 2023, and UNC won both games last season.

N.C. State has a home game against Clemson on Saturday.

KenPom prediction: Duke wins 77-55.

Injury report: Count on this being another game without Maliq Brown.

Duke’s backup center was still in sweats during warmups for Saturday’s game at Wake Forest. It’d be a miracle of a comeback if he, all of a sudden, is ready to play two days later. This will be the fourth full game he’ll miss with a sprained knee.

N.C. State has been relatively healthy this season — with one glaring absence. Transfer Mike James, who averaged 12.6 points and 5.0 rebounds per game at Louisville last season, hasn’t played a game yet. He suffered a preseason knee injury and his timeline just keeps being pushed back.

What a Duke loss looks like: Not that it’s likely … but if Duke’s offense is plagued by the same issues as it was against Wake Forest, this could be a losable game.

There’s some flukiness involved when a team misses 18 of 19 field goals to start a half, as was the case for Duke in the second half on Saturday. And N.C. State isn’t the same level of defensive team that Wake Forest is.

But when it comes to forcing turnovers, this is another team that can give the Blue Devils problems.

A loss here would also include some tired legs on Duke’s behalf; though, N.C. State also played a tough, emotional, down-to-the-wire game on Saturday.

What a Duke win looks like: The rust should all be gone.

Duke can keep things rolling in the ACC by doing a couple of things. And confidence that the Blue Devils can do those things stems from them doing so against most of the ACC already this season.

Duke has an elite shot-making offense and is one of the best defensive teams in the country. Even when the Blue Devils didn’t shoot the ball well Saturday, they still wound up with nine 3-pointers. Other than the 4-for-24 against Kentucky in the third game of the season, Duke has made at least eight 3s in every game.

This should be a straightforward game for Duke to hit the halfway point of ACC play with an unblemished record.