Blue Devils know program turnaround isn’t complete after just one game; Plus a preview of Saturday’s Duke-Northwestern game
DURHAM – It’s obvious and yet it still feels important to get the message across:
One 30-point win didn’t accomplish any long-term goals for Duke.
“We didn’t come here just to win a game,” coach Mike Elko said earlier this week. “We’re here to build the program and now we’ve got to take our show on the road.”
There’s been a bit of a measured and calculated approach from Elko and the staff this week to make sure the Blue Devils don’t get too high after one game. Success can breed success – but only if shortcuts are avoided and level heads prevail.
“This is what I told them: Successful people in life want to know what they did wrong,” Elko said of his message to the team. “I don’t need someone to wake up in the morning and tell me what I did well, I need them to tell me the three things that I can get better at, because that’s how I get better tomorrow.”
So while racing out to a 24-0 lead against Temple was encouraging, it’s the six-point second half that’s been dissected ahead of this weekend's trip to Northwestern.
It’s a bit of a balancing act for Elko. Obviously the Blue Devils earned praise with such a thorough first impression. Doing something that hadn’t been done since Steve Spurrier was the coach – shutting out an FBS opponent – is always going to register high in significance.
It just can’t overshadow the work and improvement to be made.
“You should have confidence, you’ve worked extremely hard,” Elko said. “You should be aware that we have another game to play. We’re all in this thing, we all understand what we’re doing.”
Duke has lost eight straight road games and 13 of the last 14 away from Wallace Wade Stadium. Results on the whole haven’t been pretty these last few seasons, but the Blue Devils have particularly struggled when going on the road.
“I think it’s unfolding before everybody’s eyes that (Elko) knows what he’s talking about,” defensive tackle Ja’Mion Franklin said. “All of the guys are buying in.”
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Here’s a primer on what you need to know for Saturday’s game:
Time: Noon.
TV: FOX Sports 1.
Announcers: Eric Collins (play-by-play) and Devin Gardner (analyst).
Forecast: Partly cloudy, high-70s, calm wind.
Series; last meeting: Duke leads 11-10; Duke won 30-23 in 2021.
Records: Duke 1-0; Northwestern 1-0.
Stat to watch: Duke’s passing yards.
You can’t expect Riley Leonard to complete his first 15 passes again and you might not even expect Duke to rack up another 300-plus passing yards.
That doesn’t mean the Blue Devils can’t still be efficient through the air.
Leonard’s first showing as Duke’s starter – not just as an injury fill-in – saw the second-year QB complete 24 of 30 passes for 328 yards and two touchdowns. The Blue Devils’ offense was crisp early against Temple, both with Leonard firing accurate passes and Duke’s receivers making things happen after catches.
Northwestern gave up 355 passing yards to Nebraska two weeks ago but that number also had a lot to do with the Wildcats turning the Cornhuskers’ offense one-dimensional. Duke will try to be more balanced than Nebraska wound up being in the second half of that Week 0 game.
Matchup to watch: Northwestern QB Ryan Hilinski vs. Duke’s secondary.
The pacing of this game will be intriguing if both teams become pass-happy.
Hilinski is coming off of his own strong performance in his first game, completing 27 of 38 passes for 314 yards and two touchdowns.
Last season was a bumpy road for Hilinski after he transferred from South Carolina, and he entered the season as the No. 3 quarterback. His first action came against Duke last year, though his Week 0 performance was the closest he’s looked to the QB who started as a freshman for the Gamecocks.
Duke’s secondary played great against Temple, regardless of personnel turnover and last year’s results. The Blue Devils’ overall coverage grade of 78.8 (Pro Football Focus) was higher than any game last season, holding the Owls to 114 yards on 29 attempts (3.9 yards/attempt).
It might be too early in the season to call this matchup strength-on-strength, but it’s certainly a matchup of two confident units.
Quote of the week: “I don’t have a pretty or sexy game, I’m a grinder. I want the knock-back, I want the doubles and I want to free up my guys. Of course I want to make plays, everybody wants to make plays. But if I can take on a double for Dorian (Mausi) or somebody to fly through and blow somebody up in the backfield for a TFL and create a turnover, then I’m happy with that.” – defensive tackle Ja’Mion Franklin
Opposing offensive player to watch: Peter Skoronski, left tackle (No. 77).
The sample size is obviously tiny, but through all 131 FBS teams playing at least one game, Northwestern’s left tackle grades out as the fourth-best offensive lineman in college football (89.9 grade, per Pro Football Focus).
This isn’t unexpected. Skoronski is a projected first-round pick in next year’s NFL draft. He’s a 6-4, 315-pounder who was a preseason All-America pick by the Associated Press.
In 39 pass-blocking snaps against Nebraska in the season opener, Skoronski didn’t allow a single pressure of any kind – no sacks, hurries or hits. In 792 career pass-blocking snaps, he’s only allowed four sacks.
Opposing defensive player to watch: Jeremiah Lewis, safety (No. 9).
This is a familiar one – Lewis transferred to Northwestern after spending the last four seasons at Duke.
The 6-1, 190-pounder from Lewisville, Texas, played in 38 games as a Blue Devil, including 10 starts. He had 30 tackles, two interceptions and two pass break-ups for Duke last season, after recording 46 tackles, two interceptions and a team-best 10 pass break-ups in 2020.
Lewis had an early impact with the Wildcats, recording six tackles and a pass break-up against Nebraska, playing 74 of 75 defensive snaps. He started at safety and figures to be there again when matched up against his former teammates Saturday.
Young Blue Devil to watch: Sahmir Hagans, wide receiver (No. 85).
Hagans’ two catches against Temple doubled his total from last season (when he only played in four games) and included his first career touchdown, a perfectly lofted sideline throw from Leonard for a 39-yard score in the second quarter.
It’s always good to see strong fall camp performances carried into the season.
Hagans had a spring, carried that into the fall, and it coalesced early to give him his first touchdown – against one of his hometown teams, being a Philadelphia native.
With Duke facing a stiffer test in Northwestern’s defense, it’ll be interesting to see if Hagans can continue his upward trend.
Don’t forget about: Jaylen Stinson, safety (No. 2).
Stinson had a solid day at safety against Temple, with three tackles, and he was one of two defensive players to play at least 40 snaps (he played 40 and Duke’s other starting safety, Darius Joiner, played 41).
This is more about kickoffs, though.
Stinson fair-caught the first kickoff of the game against Temple and, well, as is the nature of a shutout, never got a chance to return a kick for the rest of the game.
If Duke pitches another shutout then this will be moot, but given that seems unlikely, you’ll expect Duke’s dangerous returner to get at least a couple of shots at returns against Northwestern.
Wildcats kicker Adam Stage had six kickoffs against Nebraska and three of them were returned. His average depth was 58.3 yards – meaning his kickoffs were landing, on average, around the 7-yard line.
Prediction: It feels like the dominant season-opening win showed that Duke has talent on the roster, and that the new staff has done a nice job in eight-plus months of molding it into their system.
And it feels like this is a game that might reveal how much further that coaching staff has to go in building this program.
Northwestern is hardly an Alabama-type juggernaut, but it’s a solid program with a well-established foundation. Duke is trying to get to that level first, and then to push past it.
The Blue Devils aren’t there yet – winning this game would be a nice early step toward that.