Blue Devils travel to Pitt looking to prove physicality; Plus a preview of Saturday’s Duke-Pitt game
To be the man, you’ve got to beat the man.
This applies to Duke’s football team not in terms of beating the reigning ACC champions — for a few more weeks, anyway — with this weekend’s trip to Pittsburgh, but in terms of taking a crown Pitt has held for a few years.
Duke’s goal has been to be the most-physical team in the ACC; Pitt has been the most-physical team in the ACC for a while.
“I think this week especially, being the toughest, most-physical team is really important to us,” linebacker Cam Dillon said, “considering how well their offense runs the ball, how physical their offensive line is, how physical their defensive line is.
“Just in general, it’s just been a huge deal for us to step up and really show our true colors this week.”
The question of how Mike Elko has turned things around so quickly in his first season as Duke’s coach doesn’t have a singular answer. Duke has gone from winless in the ACC last season, losing every game in the second half of the season in blowout fashion, to an already-bowl-eligible team with a chance to win 10 games.
The Blue Devils don’t get to this point without having fundamental changes throughout the program, and one of them has been the general physicality — which will be put to a serious test against Pitt.
“I just think when you play championship football in November, controlling the line of scrimmage is where it starts,” Elko said. “Controlling the line of scrimmage is critical. Obviously they’re the team, right? They’re the team that has the physical label in this league, they’ve been the most-physical team in this league for years.”
No single statistic exists to summarize physicality — and yet, somebody who hasn’t watched a down of ACC football this season could take a gander at the team statistics and have a good handle on where these teams stand.
Duke is second in the ACC in rushing yards per game (203.8); Pitt is fifth (180.7). Pitt is second in rushing defense (97.7 yards allowed per game); Duke is fourth (122.7).
Offensive skill players are often omitted from the physicality discussion. Running back Jaylen Coleman, though, is ready to deploy his punishing style after missing about a month and returning last weekend.
“Being physical for me, honestly I feel like more so starts with being able to pass block,” Coleman said. “And then after that, it’s just being able to run the ball. Being able to run the ball hard, being able to hit the defenders so that later on in the game, they won’t want to hit me and I’ll be able to run free.
“That’s really what I’m looking forward to.”
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Here’s a primer on what you need to know for Saturday’s game:
Time: Noon.
Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh.
TV: ACC Network
Announcers: Chris Cotter (play-by-play), Mark Herzlich (analyst), Lericia Harris (sidelines).
Forecast: Low-30s, partly cloudy, winds around 12-15 mph.
Series; last meeting: Pitt leads 16-9; Pitt won 54-29 in 2021.
Records: Duke 7-3, 4-2 ACC; Pitt 6-4, 3-3.
Stat to watch: 203.8 | 97.7.
If those numbers look familiar … it’s because they are. Duke rushes for 203.8 yards per game; Pitt holds opponents to 97.7 yards per game on the ground.
The 165-yard performance by Duke’s ground game against Virginia Tech was only the Blue Devils’ second time in six ACC games to be held under 200 yards. Duke’s rushing attack has remained consistent through a myriad of injuries along its offensive line and in its backfield.
The last time Duke went up against an ACC defense allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards per game, the Blue Devils racked up 200 against Miami.
“I think maybe, sometimes, expectations get high quick,” Elko said. “I don’t know that it’s fair to assume that we’re just going to be able to run for 200 yards every week.”
Pitt is going to present a different challenge.
Even the sack-adjusted yardage — take out the 251 yards opponents have lost on Pitt’s 37 sacks — would have Pitt’s rushing defense fifth in the ACC, one-tenth of a yard behind Duke in average rushing yards allowed.
For a bonus, the vice versa here: Pitt averages 180.7 yards per game and boasts the only running back in the ACC averaging more than 100 yards per game (we’ll get to him in a minute). Duke allows 122.7 rushing yards per game.
Matchup to watch: Duke’s receivers vs. Pitt’s secondary.
This is the corresponding subject based on what’s explained above.
Duke very well could run the ball successfully against Pitt. As Elko noted after the win against Boston College, the Blue Devils’ rushing attack has been doubted a few times this season and answered the bell each time.
It’s more likely, though, that Duke needs to follow a similar offensive script as the Virginia Tech game — open things up through the air to allow the ground game some breathing room.
“That’s why we felt like we had to throw the ball coming out. We felt like we had to try to loosen them up,” Elko said of the plan against the Hokies that saw Riley Leonard throw for 162 yards in the first half — eclipsing his total from four of the previous five games.
That’s where Jalon Calhoun, Jordan Moore, Sahmir Hagans and Jontavis Robertson enter the equation.
Calhoun and Moore have been the consistent targets this season, while Hagans and Robertson have admirably stepped into larger roles after the season-ending injury to Eli Pancol.
Pitt is going to pressure your quarterback and dare you to make early throws. It’s part of why Pitt’s completion percentage against is 54.7%, lowest in the ACC, and QBs have a passing efficiency rating of 119.2 against the Panthers — second-lowest in the ACC behind N.C. State (116.4).
The Panthers’ secondary has three of the nine ACC players with at least 10 passes defended this season: A.J. Woods (12), Erick Hallett II and M.J. Devonshire (10 apiece).
Quote of the week: “It was great just to, you know, get hit a little bit. That was kind of the weirdest thing for me was just being able to take a hit. I’ll say I was a little bit rusty, but once I got my feet underneath me, I knew I was going to be fine.” Running back Jaylen Coleman, who missed four straight games before returning against Virginia Tech.
Opposing offensive player to watch: Running back Israel Abanikanda (No. 2).
Sometimes this category has been a quarterback in spite of that being the most-obvious selection.
Same logic here.
Abanikanda has a 308-yard and five-touchdown lead for ACC rushing yards and touchdowns — with 1,207 yards and 17 touchdowns, ahead of Clemson’s Will Shipley in both.
And Abanikanda missed a game with an injury.
The 5-11, 215-pounder’s big day was bigger than anyone else’s in the ACC — 320 yards and six touchdowns against Virginia Tech last month — but he’s six 100-yard games in the other eight he’s played. That includes three straight such games, with a combined 78 carries for 377 yards and five touchdowns.
The way Pitt’s offense has been rolling, this lines up as a “make sure he doesn’t go crazy and make somebody else beat you” type of game.
Opposing defensive player to watch: Defensive tackle Calijah Kancey (No. 8).
Kancey might be a more-obvious pick than Ibanikanda.
The 6-foot, 280-pounder was named to a Bronco Nagurski Award finalist earlier this week— it goes to the best defensive player in the country, and he’s one of four finalists (along with Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr., who won the award last season).
Kancey is tied with Virginia’s Chico Bennett Jr. for the most sacks in the ACC (seven). Per Pro Football Focus, Kancey leads the ACC in total QB pressures with 45 (three ahead of Duke’s DeWayne Carter).
The Miami native is coming off of a career day, as he had 3½ sacks last weekend against Virginia and 11 total pressures.
Young Blue Devil to watch: Freshman cornerback Chandler Rivers (No. 0).
The ascension of Rivers has occurred quickly.
Rivers went from backup nickel to starting at cornerback in the last three games. He averaged 26.3 snaps across Duke’s first six games, and has played 61.8 snaps in the Blue Devils’ last four. (Pro Football Focus)
The PFF grades have been kind to Rivers, too. He had grades of 33.6, 49.9 and 37.5 against Kansas, Virginia and Georgia Tech; in the last four games, his lowest grade was 62.4 against Boston College, and his 75.8 was the fifth-best grade of any Blue Devil defender against Miami.
The 5-10, 182-pounder from Beaumont, Texas, endured some early season growing pains, but he’s become a difference-maker in Duke’s secondary.
Don’t forget about: Tight end Cole Finney (No. 82).
This one is reaching deep into the bag of possibilities.
Elko said earlier this week that starting tight end Nicky Dalmolin is “day-to-day” with a lower leg injury suffered against Virginia Tech. Dalmolin is tied for third on the team with 21 catches, and his four touchdown catches lead the Blue Devils.
If Dalmolin is unable to play, it’ll be Finney stepping into the void.
The 6-7, 261-pound Finney has two catches for 32 yards this season — he’s the only tight end besides Dalmolin with a catch. Those are also the only two times he’s been targeted this year.
Finney has been required to be more of a blocker than receiver this season—of the 135 snaps he’s logged, 105 have seen him blocking. (per PFF)
Prediction: Everything about this game lines up like an old-school, pound-each-other-until-somebody-blinks football game.
For the past 4-5 seasons, that type of game favored Pitt. For this season … it still might favor Pitt.
Duke is one of the few teams playing for significant stakes in the ACC, while Pitt is trying to rally from the disappointment of not making it back to Charlotte. Two surging teams duking it out should make for entertaining football, at the very least.