Published Nov 8, 2024
Preview: Duke at N.C. State
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Conor O'Neill  •  DevilsIllustrated
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Blue Devils excited to get back on road, prove themselves in hostile environment; Plus a preview of Saturday’s Duke-N.C. State game

For as many steps forward that Duke’s football program has taken in the last three seasons, at least one hurdle remains for the Blue Devils to ascend in the ACC.

They’ve got to win ACC road games.

Duke is 2-8 in league road games across the last three years. The wins came when a five-win Miami team turned the ball over eight times, and by a touchdown against a three-win Boston College team (both in 2022).

Headed back onto the road this weekend with a short trip to Raleigh and game against N.C. State, Duke can prove it can handle hostile road environments with a win against the Wolfpack.

“Of all the things that have been on the positive uptick here, road conference wins has been the one metric that’s been lagging behind,” coach Manny Diaz said earlier this week. “If you look at our two road losses this year in the league, both games we had second-half leads. …

“What’s happening on the road? How do you close somebody out? That’s a learned skill, it’s not easy to do. … We actually feel kind of blessed this week to go on the road, to play an in-state rival at one of the better atmospheres in the league. To go challenge ourselves to be in this position again.”

And then we’ll see if the result changes for the Blue Devils.

Here’s a primer on what you need to know for Saturday’s game:

Time: 3:30 p.m.

Location: Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh.

TV: ACC Network.

Announcers: Chris Cotter (play-by-play), Mark Herzlich (analyst) and Coley Harvey (sidelines).

Radio link: Listen to the crew that knows Duke best.

Forecast: Mid-60s, sunny, winds around 8 mph at kickoff; mid-50s, clear, winds around 3 mph by game’s end.

Series; last meeting: Duke leads 42-37-5; Duke won 24-3 in Durham last season.

Records: Duke 6-3, 2-3 ACC; N.C. State 5-4, 2-3.

Matchup to watch: Duke’s defense vs. N.C. State running back Jordan Waters (No. 7).

You know there is at least part of Duke’s defense that’s looking forward to facing a former teammate.

Waters transferred to N.C. State after spending five seasons at Duke. He finished his Duke career tied for third in program history for touchdown rushes (23), 12 of those coming last season.

The 6-foot, 224-pounder has had a hit-or-miss season with the Wolfpack. He’s had two 100-yard games, including last week against Stanford.

But the big games have come because of long runs — he had 115 yards last week and 94 of it came on one run — and he hasn’t had more than 36 yards in any other game.

Quote of the week: “We made a point to the team last week, we showed them Game 5 of the World Series. And nobody thought that game was going to be won by a pitcher not covering first base, but it was. And it was also won by a Los Angeles Dodger running out a ground ball.

“You can never predict those little things that get practiced from the very first day any little league team gets together. But in crucial moments, when the heat is turned up, can you do simple well?” – Diaz

Opposing offensive player to watch: Receiver Kevin Concepcion (No. 10).

N.C. State’s do-a-bit-of-everything option as a freshman last year, Concepcion hasn’t been as much of a focal point or playmaker this season.

His yards per catch has gone from 11.8 to 8.4; his yards per rush has gone from 7.8 to 2.2. It means he’s averaging about 40 yards per game less than his freshman season, when he was the ACC rookie of the year.

That doesn’t mean Duke can ignore him.

Concepcion scored twice last weekend and is always a big-play threat, even if he’s lacked them this season.

Opposing defensive player to watch: Cornerback Aydan White (No. 3).

N.C. State’s best cornerback is either going to be lined up across from Jordan Moore or Eli Pancol, so that’s going to put him in the spotlight with where Duke wants to go with the ball.

White is third on N.C. State in tackles with 49 and tied for the team lead in passes broken up (six). He has not allowed a touchdown catch in either of the last two seasons.

Young Blue Devil to watch: Running back Peyton Jones (No. 5).

Encore! Encore!

Jones had a breakout game at Miami with 132 offensive yards — 71 on the ground and 61 as a receiver. He scored both of those ways, too.

“We train our running backs to be like receivers,” offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer said.

Brewer added that running backs coach Willie Simmons and offensive analyst Cam Clark were the driving forces behind Jones getting the deep ball in the first half when he was matched up against a linebacker.

What a Duke loss looks like: First thing that comes to mind is how Duke’s defense will have to play better — tackle better, to be specific — if the Blue Devils win this game.

N.C. State’s skill position players aren’t at the same level of Miami’s, in terms of physicality and elusiveness. But they’re more dynamic than those from, say, Florida, Georgia Tech and UNC, so if Duke’s defense doesn’t improve it’ll be another long day for its defense.

And then there’s Duke’s inconsistent offense, plus special teams units that continue to find new gaffes that cost the Blue Devils some combination of field position, momentum and points.

What a Duke win looks like: Some inverses of above apply here; Duke tackles better, doesn’t give up explosive plays, finds some consistency on offense and doesn’t shoot itself in the special teams foot, its chances of winning increase dramatically.

N.C. State’s defense has allowed more than 5 yards per play in eight of nine games this season. That’s a good aiming point for Duke’s offense, getting above that clip — which the Blue Devils have done in each of the last two games.