Two critical losses that have both come down to the final plays are the difference between where Duke’s football team is — 4-3 and headed to Miami trying to avoid a third straight ACC loss — and where it wants to be.

By losing these past two games, the Blue Devils are learning what’s needed to win those close games.

“We use the analogy like we’re chopping down a tree,” left tackle Graham Barton said. “We’re turning this program around and we’re in a lot of close games and now the next step is learning how to execute in the crucial moments and learning how to win those games.”

It’s not a surprise that Duke fights and competes when things don’t go its way. That was the case when the Blue Devils played a subpar three quarters at Georgia Tech, and then rallied to have a chance to win.

And that was the case when the Blue Devils were trailing UNC by two scores entering the fourth quarter, and then rallied to have a chance to win.

That’s a byproduct of the culture change already established by the new staff.

“We’re going to play four quarters, regardless of the scoreboard,” Barton said. “Whether we’re up 30, down 30 or it’s a close game, we’re always going to play hard.”

Since his introductory press conference, Mike Elko has steered away from using the term “rebuild” to describe the task in taking over Duke’s football program.

It’s a noble approach with validity; the first-time eligibility rule for transfers and NIL makes it easier to reb—whoops, makes it easier to remake a roster.

And as long as we’re sticking with avoiding that term, it’ll be worded this way: Duke is further along in returning to contending in the ACC’s Coastal Division — albeit in the last season of it — than just about anybody would’ve thought entering the season.

The bitterness stems from the late-game mistakes that have resulted in back-to-back three-point losses.

“It’s been a long time since Duke has played games in the fourth quarter, in these types of matchups, to have success, and so it feels different,” Elko said. “They’ve got to learn how to still play the right way through feeling a little bit different.

“I think that’s part of the learning curve of where we’re at as a program right now.”

Here comes the next test to determine whether Duke has pulled ahead of that curve.

**********

Here’s a primer on what you need to know for Saturday’s game:

Time: 12:30 p.m.

Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami.

TV: Regional Sports Networks (Bally Sports South if you’re in N.C.)

Announcers: Tom Werme (play-by-play), James Bates (analyst), Wiley Ballard (sidelines).

Forecast: Low-80s, sunny, winds around 12-15 mph.

Series; last meeting: Miami leads 15-4; Miami won 47-10 in 2021.

Records: Duke 4-3, 1-2 ACC; Miami 3-3, 1-1.

Stat to watch: 205.9 | 98.2.

The first number is Duke’s rushing yards per game, which is second in the ACC; the second is how many rushing yards Miami allows per game.

This is the strength-on-strength aspect of this matchup. Duke is coming off of a season-best 297-yard performance against North Carolina, the fourth time this season the Blue Devils have crossed the 200-yard threshold.

Most impressively about Duke’s rushing attack last week is that it was the first full game without starting guard Maurice McIntyre, who’s out for the season, and it was the Blue Devils’ second straight game without running back Jaylen Coleman, who was Duke’s leading rusher until being passed by quarterback Riley Leonard and running back Jordan Waters last week.

Miami’s defense hasn’t been great, but it’s been great against the run. The most the Hurricanes have allowed this season was 161 to UNC, and the Tar Heels' average yards per rush was 3.7.

One other factor helping limit Miami’s rushing yards allowed: The Hurricanes are second in the ACC with 21 sacks, 11 of which have come in the last two games. Virginia Tech lost 28 yards to six sacks last week; UNC lost 22 yards to five sacks in the previous week.

Quote of the week: “Riley’s not the kid everybody thinks he is. I keep telling everybody that, he’s got a side about him. Like, he’s a phenomenal kid. He’s a Christian kid, he’s very strong in his belief, he does a great job in school, he represents this program and this university exceptionally well.

“But he’s a competitor with an edge. You put him on a football field, you put him on a basketball court, you get a really competitive kid.” – Mike Elko on quarterback Riley Leonard

Opposing offensive player to watch: Tight end Will Mallory (No. 85).

Mallory was slowed by an injury to start the season, but has reeled off four straight games with at least 50 yards – including a season-high 115 yards on eight catches against UNC a couple of weeks ago.

The 6-5, 245-pound tight end will move around in Miami’s offense and has taken 36% of his snaps from the slot (PFF).

Whether Duke uses linebackers or safeties (including nickel Brandon Johnson) to handle Mallory in coverage will be interesting to watch.

Opposing defensive player to watch: Defensive end Akheem Mesidor (No. 90).

Mesidor is the reigning ACC defensive lineman of the week – winning a vote against Duke’s DeWayne Carter – after a 3½-sack performance against Virginia Tech, which vaulted into the ACC lead for both sacks (five) and sacks per game (1.0).

The 6-3, 280-pound Mesidor is from Ottawa, Canada, and is a transfer from West Virginia. He had 33 total pressures for the Mountaineers last season, but his overall PFF grade has gone from 69.4 last season to 90.3 this season.

Young Blue Devil to watch: Nickel corner Brandon Johnson (No. 30).

This is all about figuring out how Duke wants to defend Miami’s plethora of skill players.

The absence of Xavier Restrepo might have limited Miami’s passing attack at first, but the Hurricanes have turned a corner and are now seemingly a team without a go-to receiver. Which makes them dangerous because there’s no focal point to stop in key situations.

Johnson, Duke’s second-year nickel, was used a blitzer a few times against UNC and parlayed that into three pressures (one sack and two hurries). If the Blue Devils have to dial up blitzes with Johnson again, it’ll create holes in a secondary that already feels like it’s teetering, given the injury to Datrone Young in the UNC game and high snap counts for other starters.

Don’t forget about: Defensive tackle DeWayne Carter (No. 90).

It’s not like you will have forgotten about Duke’s best defensive player.

It’s just that Carter deserves to have some more spotlight – and that his encore should be highly anticipated.

The fourth-year tackle has done everything asked of him this season, and it culminated with a great performance against UNC last weekend. The 6-3, 298-pounder had three tackles, one sack, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery.

Miami has been more stout in protecting its QBs than UNC has been, so Carter likely faces a stiffer test this week.

Prediction: It’s hard to see Duke losing this game by multiple scores (the line has hovered around Miami as a 9-point favorite all week).

The worst Duke has looked this season were the first three quarters against Georgia Tech, and that still wound up being a game Duke could’ve – should’ve – won. There was no emotional hangover from then to a UNC game that the Blue Devils (again) could’ve won.

Based on the recent history here, it’s probably safe to assume Duke comes out strong against Miami. In all likelihood, it’ll come down to whoever makes more game-winning plays in the fourth quarter.

Really stepping out on a ledge there, huh?

Whether Duke becomes a team that can find the edge and make those plays will determine whether the Blue Devils’ season ends in a bowl game and/or with a winning record.