NCAA tournament preview: James Madison vs. Duke

NEW YORK – A year later, Duke is headed into a similar situation as it was a year ago.

The Blue Devils’ second-round game of the NCAA tournament against James Madison will be as much a test of physical strength as it is basketball skill.

“For our guys, they remember that Tennessee game like it was yesterday,” coach Jon Scheyer said. “I can mention some other teams we've played this year that are really physical and really good, and I'll put James Madison up there with any of them.

“Ton of respect for them. But also for our guys, I feel there's no question we are ready for that, as well.”

Really, there’s the most important part.

Last year’s loss to Tennessee, upending a team that had won 10 straight games and finally felt like it was clicking at the right time, has felt like a cloud hanging over this year’s team. It comes with the territory, given the amount of key players who returned.

Maybe it should’ve been left in 2023; maybe losing the way Duke lost to Arizona, Arkansas and Georgia Tech early in the season, outmuscled in each of those games, should’ve been where the page was turned.

Here in Barclays Center on Sunday evening, though, represents a final chance to move forward — both from last year and to Dallas for what would be Duke’s 29th Sweet 16 berth.

“It's kind of ironic. Coach talked about it this morning. It's sort of the same matchup against Tennessee last year,” sophomore guard Tyrese Proctor said. “Two teams that are both physical, try and muck the game up, outbully you.

“Playing in that game last year is really going to help us this year.”

Playing in Friday night’s game against Vermont is going to help Duke, too.

The Blue Devils were tested in some of the same ways by the Catamounts. The pace was slower, the physicality was ramped up, and Duke had to figure out how to win that game without everything clicking offensively.

That was Friday night, which matters little by the time Sunday’s game starts.

“We haven't seen a team really come at us and we knew they would,” Wisconsin coach Greg Gard said after JMU’s 72-61 win over his team on Friday night. “Everybody that we talked to that played them said they are going to come at you and they are going to foul you, and it's going to be physical and they are going to reach and grab.”

Asked if Duke has seen any team similar to JMU, Scheyer said there wasn’t a direct comparison. But he likened the Dukes to N.C. State’s pressure defense, UNC’s defensive physicality, and Virginia and Clemson’s toughness on the defensive end, too.

Intentional or not, those four teams — plus Duke — made up the ACC’s representation in the NCAA tournament.

“We sort of played in games like this all year. So, we have shown that we can handle it,” Proctor said. “If we come out at the start of the game and throw the first punch, it's going to send a message to them.

“And I think that's just what we need to do, just be the aggressors all night, and I think, you know, we'll take care of business.”

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Here’s what to know ahead of Sunday’s game:

Time: 5:15 p.m.

Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, N.Y.

TV: CBS.

Announcers: Ian Eagle (play-by-play), Grant Hill and Bill Raftery (analysts), Tracy Wolfson (sidelines).

With a win …: The winner of this game plays the winner of Sunday’s game between Houston and Texas A&M. That game will be in Dallas on Friday night.

Series; last meeting: First meeting.

Records: James Madison 32-3; Duke 25-8.

Stat to watch (part I): 28.8%.

Both stats to watch have to do with things JMU’s defense does well and what Duke has to do for a win.

This one is JMU’s 3-point defense, which is the second-lowest in the country.

Going to Michigan State for the season opener and holding the Spartans to a 1-for-20 clip was a nice start.

The Dukes don’t let you beat them on 3s. Even in their three losses, Southern Miss was 4-for-15 and App State was 4-for-14 and 6-for-15. JMU plays an aggressive defense that leads to a lot of gambles on the perimeter for steals, and gives up more inside buckets than 3s.

Duke has taken more than 15 3-pointers in all but one of its games. The exception was actually in this city, when the Blue Devils were 4-for-12 against Baylor over at Madison Square Garden.

You’ll figure Duke is going to pound the ball inside to Kyle Filipowski — explainer on that below — and what’s left to figure out is how JMU will defend him. If double teams are the answer, he’ll be kicking out to shooters — and then it becomes a matter of Duke’s guards making shots ahead of JMU’s rotation.

Stat to watch (part II): 42.6%.

You didn’t think we were getting through one of these without talking assist rates, did you?

Vermont ended its season as one of the best teams in the country in defensive assist rate and Duke had 11 assists on 19 field goals (57.9%) on Friday night.

JMU enters this game a little better than where Vermont was.

The Dukes hold teams to an assist rate of 42.6%, which is 20th-best in the country. The only teams with better defensive assist rates still playing in the NCAA tournament are UNC (40.5%) and Creighton (40.6%).

Duke is 18-1 this season when its assist rate is above 50%. The game against N.C. State in the ACC tournament was the first time the Blue Devils have been over 50% and lost; they’re 7-7 when the assist rate is 50% or lower.

Of course, it’s not the end-all, be-all for JMU’s defense — Wisconsin had 13 assists on 19 field goals in losing to JMU on Friday night.

(And, well, Wisconsin had 19 turnovers and shot 19-for-51.)

Matchup to watch: JMU’s Terrence Edwards (No. 5) vs. a Duke guard to be determined by switches.

Edwards is JMU’s leader in scoring (17.3) and assists (3.5), is an 81.5% free-throw shooter, and hasn’t committed more than three fouls in any game this season.

The 6-6, 190-pound wing is in his fourth season (all at JMU). Last year he was 47% 3-point shooter (31 of 66); this year the volume has gone up and the percentage has dropped to 36% (45 of 125).

He’s an attacking and physical player, though. Edwards’ aggressiveness saw him score 14 points, with five rebounds, two assists, two steals and a block against Wisconsin.

Two parts of this will be worth watching. First, you’ll want to see which of Duke’s three guards — probably not Jeremy Roach — is guarding Edwards to start possessions. Proctor is the Blue Devils’ best on-ball defender and he’s one of the better ones in the country.

But it’s more a matter of how Duke handles switches. The Blue Devils like to switch everything, and against Vermont that meant the Catamounts wanted Filipowski isolated on guards and wings on the perimeter — with little success driving against Duke’s 7-footer.

Duke to watch: Center Jaylen Carey (No. 15).

This isn’t confusing, is it? JMU is the Dukes, and here’s the brother of a former Duke player as the Duke to watch.

Carey is the younger brother of Vernon Carey Jr., the ACC freshman of the year for the 2019-20 season.

Jaylen Carey hasn’t had quite the freshman season as his brother — high bar — but is having a big impact off the bench for the Dukes. Carey is scoring 7.1 points and grabbing 4.3 rebounds per game, playing 14.8 minutes off the bench.

The 6-8, 245-pounder only had two points against Wisconsin, but pulled in six rebounds, had two steals and an assist.

Blue Devil to watch: Forward Kyle Filipowski (No. 30).

If there are any prop bets out there that Filipowski will take more shots in this second-round game than he had in the first round, it’s free money.

Duke’s consensus second-team All-American took one shot, and missed it, during Friday night’s win over Vermont. The Catamounts double-teamed him every time he caught the ball within 15 feet of the bucket.

That was fine with Filipowski and the Blue Devils. He affected the game in other ways, with 12 rebounds, four assists — and Scheyer saying Duke’s guards “screwed him” by not making shots off his kickouts— three blocks and two steals.

It was a fine display of the ways Filipowski plays winning basketball without scoring, while also being an anomaly.

“We have to get him more than one shot. That's on me,” Scheyer said. “That's on us for the guards, when he's open, we have to hit him. But also, they sold out to double him. So, credit to him for making the right play.”

The sophomore’s previous season low in shot attempts was four. That was the fourth game of the season against Bucknell, a 30-point win in which Filipowski only played 16 minutes.

Good news for Duke is that after Filipowski’s lower-scoring games this season, he’s bounced back with big ones. A similar game was against Charlotte, when he scored five points and had 13 rebounds and four assists. His next game was two assists shy of a triple-double, going for 28 points on 10-for-16 shooting, with 12 rebounds, against Hofstra.

KenPom prediction: Duke wins 79-71.

Devils Illustrated prognosis: Duke played the same type of game against Vermont as its last NCAA tournament game. Friday night’s game was muddied and physical in the same ways that last year’s loss to Tennessee was.

With all due respect and in a most obvious tone, Vermont didn’t have the same caliber athletes as Tennessee.

JMU might not have quite the athletes either, but the Dukes are going to be a lot closer to Tennessee than Vermont was.

So, Duke heads into a game that’s going to test what was its biggest weakness last year — one that has still been a hindrance at times this year. The Blue Devils will have to handle physicality without being sped up; have to handle inevitable momentum swings with discipline.

It lines up as a way for Duke to show its growth one year later, with the same stakes as a game that’s stuck with them for a year — or it’s going to be a disappointing repeat and end of a two-year cycle.