Preview: Wake Forest at Duke

There’s not much of a difference between a seventh and eighth win in a college football season.

Maybe the bowl destination improves, but that’s not always the case. You’re already guaranteed of a winning record. In this regular-season finale week, the Thanksgiving holiday becomes a distraction.

The motivation for Duke quarterback Riley Leonard going into Saturday’s game against Wake Forest, though, is the same as it’s been throughout the season.

“My motivation just comes off of the blatant disrespect that we’ve been kind of given this year, especially at the beginning of the year,” Leonard said. “To end the year with a win against a team like Wake, I think it would kind of set a statement and prove where this program is going.”

Well … OK then.

Playing the disrespect card doesn’t have a statute of limitations. Leonard and the Blue Devils can certainly enter the bowl game on a high note by beating a Wake Forest team that was, only a month ago, ranked in the top 10.

It’s also a team that Duke hasn’t beaten since 2018, losing three meetings since then, two of them blowouts (59-7 in 2018 and 45-7 last season).

You know, if the Blue Devils needed any further motivation.

“I don’t really look for it,” Leonard said if he seeks out disrespect angles. “But I think it’s pretty funny when somebody will come up and tell me what somebody said.”

**********

Here’s a primer on what you need to know for Saturday’s game:

Time: 3:30 p.m.

Location: Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham.

TV: ACC Network.

Announcers: Wes Durham (play-by-play), Roddy Jones (analyst), Taylor Davis (sidelines).

Forecast: Low-60s at kickoff, low-50s by the end, partly cloudy, winds minimal.

Series; last meeting: Duke leads 58-41-2; Wake Forest won 45-7 in 2021.

Records: Wake Forest 7-4, 3-4 ACC; Duke 7-4, 4-3.

Stat to watch: 191 yards per game | 139.5 yards allowed per game.

Duke’s rushing average dropped 12.8 yards after only netting 63 against Pittsburgh last week — and it’s still the third-best average in the ACC.

The Blue Devils left fall camp feeling good about depth on their offensive line and in the backfield. That’s played out as expected, with eight offensive linemen playing at least 100 snaps this season.

Carries have also been divvied up; Jordan Waters has been (relatively) healthy this season and leads Duke’s running backs with 116 carries, 557 yards and eight touchdowns. Jaylen Coleman led Duke through the first five games, missed four because of an ankle injury, and returned for the last two games. Jaquez Moore and Terry Moore (no relation) have also played large roles, though neither played last weekend.

And then there’s the QB run effect of it all.

Leonard’s 621 rushing yards are the fifth-most in the ACC, trailing only four running backs who carry heavy loads for their offenses. The second-year QB and first-year starter has proven more than capable of operating the spread-option offense of Kevin Johns, and is a threat to break loose on a zone-read at any time.

Wake’s rushing defense has been so-so this season.

The 139.5 yards allowed per game is ninth in the ACC. Louisville put up 211 rushing yards on the Deacons a month ago, but the last three games have seen Wake Forest give up 115, 136 and 120 rushing yards to N.C. State, UNC and Syracuse, respectively.

None of those teams are in the top five of rushing offenses in the ACC, though.

Matchup to watch: Wake Forest’s receivers vs. Duke’s secondary.

First comes a disclaimer: Wake Forest might be down one or two of its best wide receivers for this game.

Donavon Greene and Jahmal Banks both suffered first-half leg injuries against Syracuse last weekend and didn’t play in the second half. Greene’s 567 receiving yards are second on team; his 17.2 yards per catch average is first. Banks is second in receptions (39) and touchdowns (eight) for the Deacons.

Coach Dave Clawson said both are in a “wait-and-see” status of whether they play. In a Twitter photo, Greene appears unencumbered but Banks is wearing a knee brace.

Regardless of their statuses, this is the pick for matchup to watch.

A.T. Perry is healthy and that’s concern enough for Duke’s cornerbacks. The 6-5, 205-pounder has 893 yards and 10 touchdowns — three last week — this season. With Banks and Greene sidelined last weekend, slot receiver Taylor Morin shifted to the outside — so expect that move again if both of them are out.

Ke’Shawn Williams is Wake’s fourth receiver with more than 500 yards, and he’s been steady in the slot for the past couple of seasons.

Duke has held its last two opponents — Virginia Tech and Pitt — under 200 passing yards. Those are hardly the ACC’s most-dangerous passing attacks.

The Blue Devils have given up 254.6 passing yards per game, which is still third-worst in the ACC (ahead of Wake Forest’s 262.3). Duke’s secondary has been relatively healthy but lacks depth; safeties Darius Joiner and Jaylen Stinson have played 94.2% and 93.5% of Duke’s defensive snaps this season, respectively.

It’ll be interesting to see how much Joshua Pickett plays at cornerback. He was replaced by freshman Chandler Rivers in the starting lineup, but Pickett has played three of his best games of the season (per Pro Football Focus) this month.

The only other comparable group of receivers to Wake’s assortment is UNC’s — and the Tar Heels had 380 yards passing in their 38-35 win at Duke.

Quote of the week: “It’s funny because I’m a kid from Ohio. My rivalry growing up was Ohio State-Michigan. That was like, the rivalry for me. Coming down here, I didn’t realize how big the Carolina-Duke rivalry was. And then we went and played State, I didn’t realize how big that rivalry was.

“And then we played Wake, I didn’t realize how big that rivalry was.” – defensive tackle DeWayne Carter

Opposing offensive player to watch: Wide receiver A.T. Perry (No. 9).

He’s worth watching no matter the circumstances; he’s going to play a huge factor if one or both of Wake’s other two wide receivers can’t play.

Perry is Wake’s top wide receiver for the second straight season and has been on fire lately. In Wake’s last three games, Perry has 27 catches for 341 yards and five touchdowns. He came to Wake Forest in the same class as Sam Hartman, and the fifth-year duo connected for three scores last week in their Senior Night games.

This recent stretch has seen Perry gain some separation in stats from Wake’s other four receivers, and no stat is more clear of that than targets. Perry has been targeted 97 times; the other four have been targeted between 54 and 56 times.

Opposing defensive player to watch: Defensive end Jasheen Davis (No. 30).

Wake’s best defensive end, Rondell Bothroyd, suffered an ankle injury against Louisville — the first thing that went wrong that day — and hasn’t been able to do much over the past month.

Enter Davis, a 6-3, 250-pound speed rusher who’s grown into a force on the edge.

Davis has 17 QB pressures over the last three games, including three sacks against UNC (PFF). That’s two more pressures than he had in the first eight games for the Deacons.

He moves around in Wake’s defensive alignment, but his matchup against Duke left tackle Graham Barton, when the situation arises, will be worth watching on pass-rush snaps.

Young Blue Devil to watch: Cornerback Chandler Rivers (No. 0).

It feels like Duke has a budding star on its hands with Rivers.

He’s started the last four games and has been better with more snaps. The 5-10, 182-pounder has 21 tackles and just one missed tackle in that span (per PFF), and he’s been targeted in coverage 21 times and has given up 10 catches.

In Duke’s first six games, he had 16 tackles and four misses; and was targeted 17 times and allowed 11 catches.

The freshman is going to be tested heavily by Wake’s wide receiver corps, as noted above.

Don’t forget about: Defensive tackles DeWayne Carter (No. 90) and Ja’Mion Franklin (No. 55).

If Duke is going to slow down Wake’s offense, it’ll come with pressure up the middle.

Good thing for the Blue Devils they have a pair of stalwarts in the middle.

Carter and Franklin have been dynamic in the middle of Duke’s defensive line, and the Blue Devils will call on them again to control the line of scrimmage.

The duo complements each other in the middle. Carter is a gifted interior pass-rusher and has 44 QB pressures this season, third-most in the ACC. Franklin is a 6-2, 311-pound ball of muscle, clogging the middle and helping Duke’s rushing defense go from allowing 205.1 yards per game last year to 122.5 (fourth in the ACC) this year.

Of note: Franklin is a fifth-year player and Carter is a fourth-year, and both have one season of eligibility remaining. Carter confirmed earlier this week that he’s not participating in Senior Day, but that it isn’t a guarantee he’ll be back at Duke next season.

Prediction: Duke’s key to this game will be winning the turnover margin — shocking, I know — and controlling the line of scrimmage.

That’s been the recipe for Duke’s success all season, but it’s also been the areas that have crippled Wake Forest in three losses in the second half of the season.

It’s not impossible for Duke to win a high-scoring game against Wake Forest; it’s just that it feels like the odds of that decrease with how high the score climbs. Another fast start — Wake Forest has started slow in most games — would allow the Blue Devils to dictate the game’s pace.