Preview: UNC at Duke

DURHAM – This isn’t just another game, with the Victory Bell at stake and a three-year losing streak. Duke-North Carolina games, regardless of the sport, take on lives of their own.

And yet, it is just another game.

“It’s always great to be a part of a big rivalry, but to me it’s just a regular game,” safety Darius Joiner said. “I’m just trying to approach it the same way I always approach it … do a lot of film study, get extra work in.

“But I know it’s going to be rocking Saturday.”

Joiner came to Duke over the summer after transferring from Western Illinois – and he was at Jacksonville State for four seasons before that.

He grew up a Duke fan but hasn’t exactly shared the same experiences as veteran Blue Devils when it comes to losing three straight games to UNC – which comes on the heels of Duke winning three straight between 2016-18.

“I don’t know about grudges, but the guys are very hungry,” Joiner said of his teammates. “You can tell how they’re coming in, how they’re working, how … you see everybody late at night. They’re ready for this game.”

That's a good example of the balance that coach Mike Elko has tried to strike this week – getting the Blue Devils amped up, but also maintaining some level-headedness so as to keep emotions in check.

“Our kids don’t need to be reminded who we’re playing,” Elko said. “They certainly understand the significance of this game and the significance of this game to our fan base, our community, our alumni, to themselves.

“We talk a lot about what the energy and emotion is going to be like Saturday night and making sure that we handle that the right way.”

Duke played poorly for 3½ quarters last week in part because of things Georgia Tech did, but in part because of mistakes the Blue Devils made.

Correcting those things is where Elko has wanted his team’s focus to be this week – not on any extra meaning of the Victory Bell or a three-year losing skid in this rivalry.

“We kind of just focus on those parts of it and where we can clean up our execution,” Elko said. “I think the kids see that, they certainly felt it on Saturday because when we were able to clean up and execute the way we were capable of, we were able to get ourselves right back in the game.”

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Here’s a primer on what you need to know for Saturday night’s game:

Time: 8 p.m.

Location: Wallace Wade Stadium.

TV: ACC Network.

Announcers: Wes Durham (play-by-play), Roddy Jones (analyst), Taylor Davis (sidelines).

Forecast: Mid-60s, clear, winds around 5 mph; high-50s when the game ends.

Series; last meeting: UNC leads 63-49-4; UNC won 38-7 in 2021.

Records: UNC 5-1, 2-0 ACC; Duke 4-2, 1-1.

Stat to watch: 465.3 | 32.0

Those are both averages for UNC’s defense – yards allowed per game and points allowed per game, both last in the ACC.

Duke is coming off of its worst offensive performance of the season – albeit with several injuries occurring against Georgia Tech – and UNC’s defense could be the elixir it needs to get back on track.

UNC gave up 496 passing yards against Miami in last week’s 27-24 win, with previously benched Tyler Van Dyke completing 42 of 57 passes.

Other times, opponents have gashed UNC on the ground. The Tar Heels gave up 288 rushing yards to Appalachian State, 287 to Notre Dame, and 235 to Georgia State, with those games played consecutively. In UNC’s three other games, the Tar Heels have held each opponent under 100 rushing yards.

Duke has rushed for at least 130 yards in all six of its games, and crossed the 200-yard mark three times – against Virginia (248), N.C. A&T (222) and Northwestern (221).

The Blue Devils went into the week optimistic about who would return in this game.

Matchup to watch: UNC’s offensive line v. Duke’s defensive line.

Duke has to get UNC quarterback Drake Maye out of his rhythm, and the quickest way to do that is to applying pressure.

This is where the Blue Devils have to get some dynamic performances from a defensive line that hasn’t won many one-on-one battles this season.

DeWayne Carter is tied for second in the ACC with 24 QB pressures, and defensive end R.J. Oben is tied for 13th with 16 (Pro Football Focus). Otherwise, Duke doesn’t have a defender with double-digit pressures.

It’s part of the explainer as to why Duke has recorded the second-fewest sacks in the ACC. In the 40 combined pressures of Carter and Oben, only three have resulted in sacks.

The Blue Devils’ defensive staff will have to have an early gauge of whether they can apply pressure without bringing extra pass-rushers – and if it’s the cast that blitzes have to be dialed up, that’ll leave some dangerous matchups in space against a talented bunch of UNC receivers.

Maye was sacked five times by Miami last week, and the Tar Heels gave up three sacks in each game against Appalachian State, Georgia State and Notre Dame. UNC’s offensive line is a veteran one, with three graduate students and two seniors as starters, but it hasn’t exactly been a position of strength in the past few seasons.

Seven ACC teams are allowing more than two sacks per game and UNC (2.3) is one of them; by contrast, the only team recording fewer sacks per game than Duke’s 1.7 is N.C. State, at 1.3.

Quote of the week: “Riley (Leonard) is going to have to be extremely efficient. We’ve been through this before with two really good quarterbacks in a game where Riley is going to have a little bit of onus on him to kind of match, and he’s going to have to do that Saturday.” – Mike Elko on his quarterback

Opposing offensive players to watch: Wide receivers Antoine Green (No. 3) and J.J. Jones (No. 5).

You should know about Maye and slot receiver Josh Downs by now.

But UNC had a dynamic QB and Downs last season; what makes the Tar Heels more dangerous this season is the dual threat on the perimeter to complement the middle-of-the-field passing attack.

Green missed the first three games and debuted with a three-catch, 150-yard, two-touchdown performance against Notre Dame. In two games since then, he’s had a combined six catches for 122 yards and a score – ringing up an average of 30.2 yards per catch, which is about 9 yards better than the ACC’s leader in yards per catch (he doesn’t qualify for the category because he’s only played three games).

The ACC’s leader in yards per catch? That’s Jones, with his 12 catches for 255 yards (21.3) and two scores. His role has decreased a little bit since the first two games, given Green’s absence and Downs also dealing with an injury, but he had a 74-yard touchdown catch on UNC’s first possession against Miami and had catches of 43 and 28 yards against Notre Dame.

Green is in his fifth season and is slightly taller (6-2½) than Jones (6-2), who’s only in his second season.

Opposing defensive player to watch: Linebacker Cedric Gray (No. 33).

Turns out that the best linebackers in the ACC don’t just play for N.C. State and Clemson.

Gray leads the ACC in tackles (68). He’s had double-digit tackles in four of UNC’s last five games, including 13 (nine solo) against Miami last week. The Charlotte native also has two interceptions this season and forced a fumble last week.

The Tar Heels used Gray as a pass-rusher more against the Hurricanes than any other time this season, and he recorded two QB hits and a hurry.

He’s a 6-2, 230-pounder who Duke’s offensive line and running backs will need to be aware of before each snap.

Young Blue Devil to watch: Linebacker Dorian Mausi (No. 8).

Duke’s third-year linebacker has missed two games (N.C. A&T and Virginia) and only played 26 snaps last week, but the Blue Devils will need him to be at the top of his game for this one.

UNC boasts three tight ends – Bryson Nesbit, Kamari Morales and John Copenhaver – in the top seven for receiving yards this season. The Tar Heels’ rushing game is a concern, but it’s the variety and versatility of weapons at Maye’s disposal that make the offense deadly.

That means Duke will need Mausi, along with middle linebacker Shaka Heyward and backup Cam Dillon, to be at their best if they’re going to slow down UNC.

Don’t forget about: Wide receiver Jalon Calhoun (No. 5).

Yeah yeah, you’re not going to forget about Duke’s leading receiver.

Calhoun’s absence against Georgia Tech can’t be overstated, though.

The fourth-year receiver was injured on the first punt return of the game and was sorely missed for the rest of it. Without Calhoun, Leonard completed 20 of 42 passes – the first sub-50% completion percentage of the season.

Calhoun has had at least 90 yards in three of Duke’s six games this season, and had touchdown catches in each of the two games before exiting last week’s game before the Blue Devils took an offensive snap.

The 5-11, 189-pounder from Greenville, S.C., is expected to be back for the Blue Devils against UNC.

Prediction: It feels like Duke’s primary objective in this game is to control the clock and possessions. Recording a time of possession of about 32 or 33 minutes and keeping it at an 11- or 12-possession game for each team would limit the effectiveness of UNC’s prolific offense.

Then again, Duke’s offense might be primed to bust out after a season-low 278 yards last week – and against a UNC defense that’s given up over 600 yards once, and over 500 yards in two other games.

The usual clichés apply here: That whoever wins the turnover battle and makes fewer mental errors is going to have the inside track on winning this game.

If the Blue Devils clean up those things that proved costly against Georgia Tech, they won’t only give themselves a fair shot at beating UNC – they’ll give themselves a chance to take control of the Coastal Division.