Preview: Staying grounded

It took all of five games for Duke to exceed its win total from last season, and it took all of one game for the Blue Devils to match their ACC win total from the last two seasons combined.

With success comes celebration, but it also brings a required dialogue about staying on this path rather than getting swept up in hype.

“People who have success do one of two things,” coach Mike Elko said this week. “They get addicted to success, which means they continue to work as hard as they’ve worked. They continue to understand how small the margins are to being successful. And they find ways to work harder and up their game.”

That’s one thing … the other?

“Or people get lazy and they relax. You see it all over the country, when you relax for a second in this game, you’ll get humbled in a heartbeat.”

The key to being the former in this scenario is constant conversation, Elko said.

“Our coaches are really good about keeping our heads in the same place,” fourth-year wide receiver Eli Pancol said. “They congratulate us on the win, but then they say it’s time to get back to work because the only reason we got to where we are is because we’ve worked hard.”

The work continues with a trip to Atlanta to face a Georgia Tech team in the midst of a coaching change, and one that’s coming off of a win at previously ranked Pittsburgh last week under interim coach Brent Key.

“We want to sustain that, so we just make sure everyone’s on the same page as the head coach,” Pancol added.

**********

Here’s a primer on what you need to know for Saturday’s game:

Time: 4 p.m.

Location: Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta.

TV: Regional Sports Network (Bally Sports South if you’re in N.C.).

Announcers: Tom Werme (play-by-play), James Bates (analyst), Lauren Jbara (sidelines).

Forecast: Mid-70s, sunny, winds around 10 mph.

Series; last meeting: Georgia Tech leads 53-35-1; Georgia Tech won 31-27 in 2021.

Records: Duke 4-1, 1-0 ACC; Georgia Tech 2-3, 1-1.

Stat to watch: 29.3% | 46.4%.

The first percentage is Georgia Tech’s third-down conversion rate; the second is Duke’s opponent’s third-down conversion rate. Those are respectively the worst clips in the league.

In other words, GT is the worst team in the ACC when it comes to converting third downs and Duke is the worst team in the ACC when it comes to stopping opponents on third down.

The only game that GT converted more than 33% of its third downs was against FCS-level Western Carolina, and that was just a 5-for-11 mark. In last week’s win against Pittsburgh, the Yellow Jackets were 5 of 17; the difference was GT’s defense holding Pitt to a 2-for-12 number on third downs.

Duke has allowed each of the last three teams to convert more than 50% of their third downs – a combined 22-for-38 (57.9%). The only ACC team also allowing opponents to convert more than 40% of their third downs this season is UNC (42.5%).

“It’s just something we’ve got to work on,” Duke safety Jaylen Stinson said. “This week we’ve put a lot of emphasis on our third downs.”

Quote of the week: “There (are) weeks where the matchups are there for us to throw the ball a little bit better. And then there (are) matchups where we feel like we’re going to have to run the ball to be successful.

“We’ve got to be able to be diversified in our attack. We can’t be one-dimensional.” – coach Mike Elko

Opposing offensive player to watch: Jeff Sims, quarterback (No. 10).

Sims completed less than 50% of his passes (12 of 25) against Duke last season, but managed to accumulate 297 yards and three touchdowns.

Just in case you needed a reminder.

That performance last season was the middle game of a three-game stretch in which Sims averaged 318.7 passing yards per game. In seven games since then, he’s averaged 174 passing yards.

Sims is coming off of a winning effort at Pittsburgh in which he completed 11 of 26 passes for 102 yards and a touchdown. He was sacked four times but still totaled 81 rushing yards and a touchdown.

Opposing defensive player to watch: Ayinde Eley, linebacker (No. 2).

The ACC’s leading tackler is in his second season at Georgia Tech after grad-transferring from Maryland, where he spent three seasons.

Eley has 56 tackles this season, one more than North Carolina’s Cedric Gray. That high total shouldn’t be all that surprising, as Eley was fifth in the ACC last season with 90 tackles.

What’s impressive about the 6-3, 233-pounder from Olney, Md., is that he’s also second for the Yellow Jackets in QB pressures (13, according to Pro Football Focus). In 46 snaps as a pass-rusher, Eley has two sacks, one hit and 10 hurries; GT’s leader in pressures, defensive end Keion White, has 17 pressures in 108 pass-rush snaps.

Young Blue Devil to watch: Jaquez Moore, running back (No. 20).

Elko said the only long-term injury concerns this week are defensive end Anthony Nelson and linebacker Tre Freeman.

Still, the way running back Jaylen Coleman was hobbling off of the field after Saturday’s win over Virginia is cause for concern until you see him running at full speed Saturday.

In the event Coleman can’t play or is limited, it’ll bump Moore up into the rotation with Jordan Waters.

Based on last weekend’s limited sample size, that might provide a spark.

Moore’s first carry against Virginia resulted in a 59-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter. It was the second time he’s busted a long run this season, after recording a 42-yarder against N.C. A&T. Moore dropped behind Coleman and Waters and didn’t record a carry at Kansas, but he’s remained in Elko’s favor despite the diminished role.

“I love Quez, I think Quez runs the ball really well. He hasn’t done anything wrong,” Elko said a few weeks ago. “We just kind of feel like Jaylen and Jordan have kind of stepped forward.”

Don’t forget about: Sahmir Hagans, wide receiver (No. 85).

Hagans has had three catches for 13 yards in the last two games and feels due for a big play, like the 39-yard touchdown he caught against Temple in the opener, or the 41-yarder against N.C. A&T.

Duke has a five-man rotation at receiver and it’s becoming clear that Jalon Calhoun, Pancol and Jordan Moore are the top three, and then it’s Hagans and Jontavis Robertson.

Prediction: So much of the forecasting about this game has to do with variables on the GT side of things that are difficult to project.

What kind of crowd do the Yellow Jackets get in their first home game after the firing of Geoff Collins? The noise and atmosphere at Kansas negatively affected the Blue Devils, but now that they’ve been through that once, they’re better equipped to handle it again.

Was last week’s performance at Pittsburgh a one-week rallying point for GT, or does the emotional response carry into this game?

Is Georgia Tech a better team if Sims completes less than 50% of his passes? Seriously, GT’s last three wins – Duke last season, Western Carolina and Pitt this season – have seen Sims’ passing rates of 12-for-25, 8-for-17, and 11-for-26. Every other game he’s started since last October that he’s completed more than 50% of his passes, the Yellow Jackets have lost.

As is laid out in the top of this preview, Duke needs to focus inward on keeping things rolling. If it does, the Blue Devils could muscle their way to a 5-1 record with a nighttime showdown against UNC on deck next weekend.