Preview: No. 8 Duke at Miami
Jon Scheyer makes clear that his team has toughness
From last Monday night’s declaration that anybody who questions the toughness of Mark Mitchell and Kyle Filipowski doesn't know them to this Monday morning’s defense of his team’s toughness in general, Duke coach Jon Scheyer has made one thing clear.
He believes his team has plenty of it.
“I just, I think some of that talk is kind of funny to me because how many teams in the country right now have 20 wins and people are talking about, ‘How tough are they?’” Scheyer said on Monday’s ACC teleconference. “‘Do they have dogs?’
“How do you get 20 wins without having that?”
Duke’s second-year coach was asking a rhetorical question and driving home the point. The eighth-ranked Blue Devils have lost twice since the first week of December, when back-to-back road losses at Arkansas and Georgia Tech — games that haven’t aged well, with both under .500 — dropped Duke to 5-3.
Scheyer knows that part of it, too.
“Are there moments where we could’ve played better, or we didn’t play through the contact that we needed to?” Scheyer said. “Of course. But you could show that for any team in the country.”
In the selection committee’s first early reveal of the season, in which the top 16 teams are ranked, Duke was 12th, meaning the Blue Devils were the worst of the teams on the 3-seed line. Since then, Iowa State — ranked 11th by the committee — lost at Houston. It’s also notable that the No. 10 team in that ranking, Baylor, lost to Duke on a neutral court.
Part of the questions about Duke’s toughness, consciously or not, stem from how Scheyer’s first season ended. A Duke team that hit its groove and won 10 straight games was undone by a Tennessee that lacked any type of scoring punch, but imposed its physicality on the Blue Devils to knock them out of the NCAA tournament.
Whether that’s how this team’s season ends is a chapter yet to be written, and can only be written next month. For now, though, the feeling for Scheyer seems like that won’t be the case again.
“Some of the narrative, I just don’t agree with,” Scheyer said. “I know the competitors we have in that locker room.”
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Here’s what to know ahead of Wednesday night’s game:
Time: 7 p.m.
Location: Watsco Center, Miami.
TV: ESPN.
Announcers: Dan Shulman (play-by-play) and Jay Bilas (analyst).
Series; last meeting: Duke leads 25-10; Duke won 85-78 in an ACC tournament semifinal game last season. The teams split regular-season meetings, each winning on its home court.
Records: Duke 20-5, 11-3 ACC; Miami 15-11, 6-9.
Stat to watch: 37.5%.
That’s the percentage of points scored against Miami that have come on 3-pointers, the 13th-highest clip in the country (per KenPom).
Duke has taken more 3s than 2s in two games — the fourth of the season against Bucknell and the home loss to Pittsburgh. If you were betting on a third game happening, this is the one.
Miami blitzes ball screens, meaning the Hurricanes trap far away from the basket. That can lead to turnovers, but if the dribbler gets rid of the ball quick enough, it can lead to open shots.
That happens often.
Twelve times in 26 games, Miami’s opponent has taken more 3s than 2s. It’s happened in each of the last three games, and seven of the last nine. The Hurricanes won eight of the first nine games in which that happened, but have lost the last three games (and are on a four-game losing streak).
In the last three games, UNC, Clemson and Boston College have made a combined 39 of 91 3-pointers (42.9%).
Matchup to watch: Duke’s shorthanded backcourt vs. Miami’s shorthanded backcourt (both tentative).
Taking Nijel Pack away from Miami had a bigger impact than taking Tyrese Proctor away from Duke. At least, that’s one way to look at each team’s last game.
Duke’s sophomore point guard missed Saturday’s win over Florida State because of a concussion suffered against Wake Forest. Scheyer didn’t sound all that optimistic, nor did the timeline seem great, when discussing Proctor on Monday.
“When you’re in concussion protocol, you can’t just come back and practice,” Scheyer said. “There’s steps that need to be made.”
Miami lost at Boston College 85-77 on Saturday without Pack, who’s dealt with lingering injuries throughout the season. While coach Jim Larranaga was on Monday morning’s ACC teleconference, Miami’s medical staff was on one, too.
“Our doctors are going to be on a conference with Nijel and his parents to really look into look into the future and see what’s best for this young man,” Larranaga said.
For Duke, it means extended minutes are in order for Caleb Foster, Jeremy Roach and Jared McCain, all of whom played at least 35 at FSU. And Jaylen Blakes, who Scheyer has praised for his 10 minutes against the Seminoles, will be needed again.
Miami’s backcourt sans Pack is a little more complicated. Bensley Joseph is better known as a defensive stopper, though he had 13 points and seven assists on Saturday. Wooga Poplar is one of the most improved players in the ACC and he becomes the top-scoring guard with Pack out. Kyshawn George is a freshman who’s a projected first-round pick (he’s 6-8 and shooting 40.8% on 3s), but he was scoreless at BC.
Hurricane to watch: Center Norchad Omier (No. 15).
It’s hard to pin Miami’s dip over the last 45 days on Omier.
The 6-7, 240-pounder is sixth in the ACC in scoring (17.8), second in rebounding (9.8) and second in field goal percentage (60.3%). While it’s actually the lowest rebounding clip of his career — two years at Arkansas State, this is his second at Miami — his offense has steadily improved to the point that he is Miami’s best scorer.
Omier has scored 20, 18 and 20 points in Miami’s last three games. He had a 33-point game on 12-for-14 shooting against Notre Dame a month ago, and had a five-game stretch bridging December and January averaging 22.6 points per game.
In the Hurricanes’ win over Duke last season, Omier had 17 points. You might remember that as the game in which he made two 3-pointers, as he was 5-for-16 on the season. He’s been shooting more 3s this season, making 17 of 46 (37%).
Blue Devil to watch: Guard Jeremy Roach (No. 3).
This is the non-Jared McCain selection, as there will be a separate story on him.
Roach has been the other half of Duke’s consistent backcourt duo. The second-year captain is averaging 14 points per game, shooting 44.8% on 3s and 86.4% on free throws.
You need experienced guards to be able to win on the road; here’s what Roach has done in Duke’s seven ACC road games:
Scored 15.7 points, shot 35-for-76 (46.1%), made 14 of 29 3-pointers (48.3%), made 26 of 28 free throws (92.9%), and had 24 assists and 11 turnovers.
What’s on deck: Duke’s three-game road swing ends with Saturday’s trip to Winston-Salem for another matchup against Wake Forest.
Last month, when Duke played the same team in a two-week span, things went a lot better in the first game than the second. That was the dominant win at Pittsburgh, and then the home loss to the Panthers. The Blue Devils didn’t blow out Wake Forest last week, and this rematch is on the road against a team desperate for a Quad-1 win.
Miami is home against Georgia Tech on Saturday, and then has a quick turnaround to a Monday night game at UNC.
KenPom prediction: Duke wins 79-73.
Devils Illustrated prognosis: Both of Duke’s next two games have some trap-game feelings.
The Wake Forest game on Saturday is, on paper, the tougher game. The Deacons need a Quad-1 win to feel better about their NCAA tournament résumé and are trying to keep pace for the No. 4 seed in the ACC tournament. Miami’s status has been removed from bubble talk and losing the last four games, five of the last six, has the Hurricanes running on fumes.
It’s still a Miami team with firepower, though. Omier is a load and while he’s shorter than the centers who have given Kyle Filipowski problems, he scores in a lot of the same ways as Armando Bacot and such. Poplar and George, plus Matthew Cleveland, are all capable of offensive explosions.
This is bound to be a tight and tricky game for Duke.