Preview: No. 10 Duke at N.C. State

The revenge tour that became a staple of Duke’s last season didn’t have its final show in 2023.

Let’s explain:

A theme emerged late last season for the Blue Devils in the form of rematches against teams that beat them in the first game. Duke lost games at N.C. State, Miami, Virginia Tech and Virginia; during the 10-game winning streak that carried Duke through the end of the regular season and to an ACC title, the Blue Devils beat each of those teams.

After those games, against N.C. State and Virginia Tech at the end of the regular season and against Miami and Virginia in Greensboro, the term “revenge tour” was mentioned often.

It was vengeance in a simple form; it just didn’t end with those wins, at least in the minds of the Blue Devils.

“There are so many games you can look at be like, ‘Oh, we beat them last time. It’s whatever, we’ll beat them again,’” sophomore Kyle Filipowski said. “That’s how teams lose, you know? We’ve got to keep that edge, keep that chip on our shoulder, however we can find a way to do that.

“We’ve got some business we’ve got to handle there (at N.C. State), for sure, especially with what happened last year.”

Duke already won at two of those places, Miami and Virginia Tech, this season. The Blue Devils’ only matchup against Virginia was Saturday night’s game at Cameron, so they’ll have to settle for revenge against the Cavaliers coming in last year’s ACC tournament title game and the 25-point dismantling over the weekend.

Last year’s loss at N.C. State was first on the docket, though. That was an early January game that saw the Wolfpack jump out to a 15-0 lead. It was never all that competitive and

It’s still fresh in the minds of some Blue Devils.

“I mean, yeah, ‘cause that was not very good of a game,” freshman Sean Stewart said when asked if this year’s team still talks about last year’s loss at N.C. State. “We’ve just talked about how we need to get them back at their place.”

This is where you can both appreciate Duke’s core group, as coach Jon Scheyer has called it, that has been through two seasons together, while also lamenting that this sort of thing doesn’t happen that often anymore.

Returning a trio of sophomore starters, plus fourth-year guard Jeremy Roach, has meant this is an older Duke team than most of the past decade.

Still not an old team by anybody’s definition; but older in what’s become Duke’s standard.

“It’s been fun for me, going through two seasons with a core group,” Scheyer said. “Because … you’re allowed to grow with them. They’re allowed to grow with you.”

And with Monday night’s trip to Raleigh, they’re allowed to exact some revenge — even if it might come 14 months later.

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Here’s what to know ahead of Monday night’s game:

Time: 7 p.m.

Location: PNC Arena, Raleigh.

TV: ESPN.

Series; last meeting: Duke leads 151-103; Duke won 71-67 on Feb. 28 last season, with the teams splitting regular-season meetings.

Records: Duke 23-6, 14-4 ACC; N.C. State 17-12, 9-9.

Stat to watch: 40 of 62.

Here we are, last week of the regular season, still talking about Duke’s assist rate.

The Blue Devils had 40 assists on 62 field goals last week, going over 50% in both games (23 of 32 against Louisville; 17 of 30 against Virginia).

This one gets pretty simple when you look at the games Duke has won and lost. In six losses, Duke’s assist rate has been at 50% twice and under it in the other four games. The combined rate is 67 assists on 161 field goals (41.6%).

In 23 wins, Duke’s assist rate has been at or below 50% six times. So, in the other 17 wins, Duke’s assist rate has been better than 50%. The combined stats for wins is 389 assists on 666 field goals (58.4%).

Ball movement is more important to some teams than others; for Duke, it’s imperative.

Here’s that broken down into tweet form:

Matchup to watch: Duke’s post defense vs. N.C. State center DJ Burns Jr. (No. 30).

You can’t draw up a better warm-up game for Filipowski to defend the post than this one, ahead of his rematch against UNC’s Armando Bacot at the end of the week.

The ball is going to Burns when he’s in the game. N.C. State will post the 6-9, 275-pounder (listed) from as far out as the 3-point line, and he’ll back his way into left-handed hook shots and creative up-and-under moves. Burns’ usage rate is 26.9% (KenPom) this season, which is 184th in the country and higher than any Duke player other than Filipowski (28.3%); in ACC-only games though, Burns’ usage goes to 29.2% and is the fifth-highest in the ACC.

First, we’ll see if Duke leaves Filipowski on Burns one-on-one in the post or if the Blue Devils will double-team him. It feels a bit like it’s only a matter of time before you double Burns in the post, though, and the calculus usually becomes whether you do it on the catch or after he’s dribbled once or twice.

Doubling him in the post means making it difficult for him to pass out of the double; he has one of the best assist rates in the ACC (22.3%). The way the Wolfpack uses Burns leads to a lot of open 3s.

It obviously won’t all be Filipowski as Burns’ primary defender, too. Ryan Young will be called on to handle Burns, and some combination of Stewart and Mark Mitchell will be deployed.

Wolf to watch: Guard DJ Horne (No. 0).

Duke has played one of the ACC’s best villains — meant in the most respectful way possible — twice this season, and the second time wound up with him standing on Duke’s press table celebrating.

Now the Blue Devils will face the other Tier I villain in the league.

Horne is a smack-talking, in-your-face player who can back it up. He’s the brightest spot in an up-and-down season for the Wolfpack, a Raleigh native who spent two years at Illinois State, and then two at Arizona State, before landing back at home for his final season of eligibility.

In terms of what he does in plays that actually matter, Horne is a 6-2, 180-pounder who can get to his spots and score at all three levels. While the Wolfpack has scuffled along in the past five weeks, he’s been fantastic, averaging 23.7 points across N.C. State’s last nine games.

Blue Devil to watch: Guard Tyrese Proctor (No. 5).

The sophomore’s good games and not-so-good ones have come in bunches and Duke is riding a four-game stretch of the former right now.

Since missing a game with a concussion, Proctor has averaged 12.3 points on 18-for-34 shooting (10-for-23 on 3s; 8-for-11 inside the arc). He has 20 assists and five turnovers in this span.

Part of Proctor’s season has been defined by the ankle injury he suffered in December, and then the concussion in the first game against Wake Forest. Otherwise, when healthy, his shooting has come and gone.

But he looks to be rounding into form at the right time for the Blue Devils, similar to last season when he averaged 10.5 points in Duke’s 10-game winning streak plus the NCAA tournament loss, and had 48 assists and 15 turnovers in those games.

“Tyrese was just in complete control (Saturday) night,” Scheyer said. “Just driving, shooting, playmaking, competing, defending.”

What’s on deck: Eh, do you need much in this section?

Duke’s next game is the regular-season finale against UNC. The Blue Devils trail the Tar Heels by one game in the ACC standings and, given both handle early week business, Duke can tie UNC atop the standings by winning the rematch.

The tiebreaker scenarios are more complicated, should Duke notch that tie. It boils down to which team finishes in fourth place amid the glob of Syracuse, Clemson, Wake Forest and Pittsburgh; if it’s Syracuse or Clemson, Duke would be the No. 1 seed in the ACC tournament.

N.C. State closes an up-and-down regular season with a trip to Pittsburgh on Saturday.

KenPom prediction: Duke wins 78-72.

Devils Illustrated prognosis: The first thing I want to see in this game is the crowd.

The temperature at N.C. State, with Kevin Keatts, isn’t great. His seventh season is winding down without much hope for a third NCAA tournament berth, and in the two times the Wolfpack has reached the tournament, it’s lost in the first round. It’s a strange tenure, having successfully turned the page on a couple of atrocious seasons at the end of Mark Gottfried’s time in Raleigh, but now strangely with not much of a bright future.

So, it’ll be a crowd that wants to beat Duke, obviously. But this thing can turn ugly if Duke gets off to a hot start, with animosity shifting toward the home team and its bench.

As far as the game is concerned, it’s Duke’s third Saturday-Monday swing of the season and the Blue Devils have acquitted themselves well in the first two chances. That’s been one of the surest signs that this is a mature team, and passing this last test would be a nice leaping-off point into the UNC rematch and tournaments.