Preview: Miami at No. 2 Duke

Every player was available and every staff member except one was present and accounted for in Duke’s win against Georgia Tech on Tuesday night.

But it was not, as coach Mike Krzyzewski said, the same team we saw before the 12-day pause necessitated by a COVID-19 outbreak.

“We’re not close to being the team that we were before the break,” Krzyzewski said on Tuesday night. “But we can be. We’ve just got to keep going.”

The Blue Devils have kept going in the days since and the next step toward reclaiming their former identity comes Saturday night with a visit from Miami, which is riding an eight-game winning streak.

There’s a level of patience required as Duke regains the conditioning level it had for the first two months of the season – some of which was washed out with players isolating in hotel rooms for five days.

“I mean, it’s definitely going to be a slow grind,” captain Wendell Moore Jr. said. “Because the place we were before took months of preparation, we were here since July preparing for that.

“This two-week layoff has definitely been something that’s new for us and like Coach said, we’ve just got to gradually get back into it.”

The schedule worked in Duke’s favor with Georgia Tech, and its adjusted tempo being 236th in the country (per KenPom), being the first game coming out of the break.

Miami doesn’t necessarily play at a fast pace, but its 112th ranking for adjusted tempo suggests Saturday night’s game will test Duke in a way that Georgia Tech didn’t.

Krzyzewski doesn’t want players rushed back into peak conditioning form because overloading – binging, as he called it – can lead to soft-tissue injuries like hamstring and groin pulls.

It’s also worth remembering that this is a team that saw a few players struggle with cramping in the early stages of the season. Freshman Paolo Banchero spent chunks of second halves against Kentucky and Gonzaga receiving medical attention.

“I do think we’ve taken steps diet and nutrition before our normal (game-day routine),” Krzyzewski said on Tuesday night. “That’d have been a hell of a thing tonight, if we got that.”

**********

Here’s what to know ahead of Saturday night’s game:

Time: 8 p.m.

TV: ACC Network

Announcers: Jay Alter (play-by-play) and Malcolm Huckaby (analyst).

Series; last meeting: Duke leads 22-8; Miami won 77-75 in 2021.

Records: Miami 12-3, 4-0 ACC; Duke 12-1, 2-0.

Stat to watch: Miami’s free-throw attempts.

Duke is No. 1 in the country at limiting opponents’ trips to the free-throw line – opposing teams’ FTA/FGA rate is 16.8%, per KenPom.

There are a few factors there – Duke has played one road game, Duke has played two games against teams in the top 100 for FTA/FGA, and Duke has been leading every game but one down the stretch, i.e. it hasn’t had to extend the end of a game by fouling.

The main factor, though, is that the Blue Devils are able to play pressure defense without fouling. The three-pronged wing attack of Jeremy Roach, Trevor Keels and Moore can lock down an opposing backcourt, and has been able to do so without drawing foul calls.

Now they’ll have to do the same against a Miami team that’s adept at getting to the free-throw line.

The Hurricanes’ FTA/FGA rate is 36.8%, which is 46th in the country. That’s a better clip than any team Duke has played this season.

Hurricanes to watch: Kameron McGusty and Isaiah Wong, wings.

In the same respect that Georgia Tech leans on Michael Devoe and Jordan Usher, Miami leans on a formidable duo of wing players to create its offense.

McGusty is fifth in the ACC in scoring (18.3 points per game) and Wong is seventh (16.3), with Duke’s Paolo Banchero (17.1) in between them.

They’re both capable 3-point shooters, but it’s not the featured part of the games. McGusty and Wong are slashers who put pressure on defenses with dribble-drives and by getting to the free-throw line.

How Duke switches pick-and-roll defenses will go a long way in determining how well the Blue Devils stifle Miami’s potent duo.

Blue Devil to watch: Wendell Moore Jr.

The version of Moore that was on the court against Georgia Tech was hardly the same one that we saw in the first 12 games.

Moore was 2-for-11 with two rebounds, two assists and three turnovers against the Yellow Jackets. His eight points marked the first time this season that he’s scored in single digits; he tied a season-low in rebounds, and in the other game he had (South Carolina State), he played a season-low in minutes; and it was the second time this season that he’s had more turnovers than assists (also South Carolina State).

It was, simply put, an off night for Duke’s junior captain.

“First game back coming off two weeks of pause, I mean, (it) was really just a chance to knock some of the rust off,” Moore said.

Moore’s night wasn’t without key plays, though. His 3-pointer and mid-range jumper at the midway point of the second half – his only two field goals – came on back-to-back possessions and helped give Duke the cushion it needed down the stretch.

When he made the 3-pointer, his body language took an obvious turn for the better.

“Really, some of the rust started coming off toward the end of that second half,” Moore said. “I got some work in (Wednesday), knocked some rust off, and then I got a chance to knock some more off (Thursday).

“So we’ve got another day of preparation, another day to get better and kind of get back into the groove of things.”

KenPom prediction: Duke wins 86-71.

Devils Illustrated prognosis: It feels like this will be a tougher game for Duke than the Georgia Tech matchup, given Miami is hot and has a better supporting cast around its two stars.

The style of play, though, couldn’t be much different between Georgia Tech and Miami.

The Yellow Jackets play defense and are offensively challenged, in spite of Michael Devoe and Jordan Usher. The Hurricanes get up and down the court and have a prolific offense – a bit of a renaissance for coach Jim Larranaga, who’s had his share of disappointment over the last few years.

Whereas Tuesday night was a test of whether Duke could get up to speed for a game like that, this one will test how quickly the Blue Devils are able to get up to an optimal speed against a high-scoring team.