Published Dec 16, 2024
Preview: George Mason at No. 5 Duke
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Conor O'Neill  •  DevilsIllustrated
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Blue Devils jump back into things with two games this week before another lengthy break

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After playing its shortest turnaround of the season, Duke had its longest break of the season.

All things balanced, so on and so forth.

The Blue Devils come out of their final exams break with Tuesday night’s game against George Mason. It’s the first game in a week for Duke, which played at Louisville on Dec. 8 and came back to Durham for a game that tipped off within 48 hours of the ACC opener, beating Incarnate Word on Dec. 10.

“You know, this was the most unusual turnaround for us,” coach Jon Scheyer said after Duke’s last game. “If we knew we were going to be playing Sunday at 6 o’clock, not sure we would have ever scheduled this on a Tuesday. I think I set our guys up, to be honest with you, a little bit tonight.”

So … got that one, ACC schedule maker(s)?

The Blue Devils have two games this week before a longer break, though they’re not on top of each other. After Tuesday night’s game against George Mason, the Blue Devils’ next game is Saturday at Georgia Tech — and then Duke has its longest break of the season, off for 10 days before a New Year’s Eve matchup against Virginia Tech.

In his own sardonic way, freshman Kon Knueppel said yes, he was looking forward to the rest that was coming the Blue Devils’ way after they dispatched Incarnate Word last week.

But also that he wasn’t looking forward to it too much.

“I’m looking forward to (rest). But I’m looking forward to getting back out there on Tuesday against George Mason,” Knueppel said.

Here’s what to know ahead of Tuesday night’s game:

Time: 7 p.m.

Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium.

TV: ACC Network.

Series; last meeting: Duke leads 3-0; Duke won 69-53 in Dec. 2006, when DeMarcus Nelson scored 24 points and then-freshman Scheyer had 18 points and six assists.

Records: George Mason 7-3; Duke 8-2.

Stats to watch: 42.4% | 41.8%.

The first number is Duke’s effective field goal defense, which ranks sixth in the country; the second is GMU’s e-FG defense, which ranks fourth (per KenPom and entering Monday).

In short: These teams are elite defenses when it comes to making opponents miss shots.

They do it in similar ways, which is to say both teams give up a fairly high percentage of 3-point shots and pack in their defense to limit shots at the rim.

Opponents make 41.3% of 2-point shots against Duke, which is fifth-lowest in the country; GMU’s opponents make 42.3% of their 2s, which is eighth-lowest.

Duke has allowed e-FG clips over 50% in two games this season — Kansas’ was 56.1% and Auburn’s was 53.1%. On offense, the Blue Devils’ e-FG rate against the Jayhawks was actually 61.5%; the 23.5% turnover rate is what doomed them to that loss.

One team has a 50% e-FG clip against GMU — that was Tulane in the Patriots’ most-recent game (Dec. 7). It was still a 76-64 win by GMU.

As a reminder: This stat, e-FG, is just field goal percentage with added weight for made 3-pointers.

Matchup to watch: Duke vs. the refs.

No no no, it’s not what you think.

But that’s catchier than, “Duke playing defense without fouling.”

The best thing GMU’s does offensively is get to the free-throw line. The Patriots have attempted 543 shots and 261 free throws, so for almost every two shots, they’ve taken one free throw. They have three players — Jalen Haynes, KD Johnson and Giovanni Emejuru — drawing at least five fouls per 40 minutes.

Duke, like most younger teams, has had some learning pains when it comes to putting opponents on the free-throw line this season. Most notable of those was Seattle scoring 24 of its 48 points at the free-throw line a few weeks ago.

It hasn’t been a crippling factor for Duke’s defense, though. Duke’s free-throw attempt/field-goal attempt rate is 27% (per KenPom), and that’s the 55th-lowest in the country. The Seattle game is the only time Duke has allowed a free-throw rate north of 42%.

EvanMiya lineup note: Plus-minus leader.

Let’s get the disclaimer out here first: Plus-minus remains a flawed stat.

It has value, which is why we’re talking about it. But too often, people take plus-minus as the evidence needed to fuel narratives of why player-A should be playing over player-B and think it’s a conversation-ender. It’s not; it’s just a way of putting value to a player and the effect he has on teammates.

Take a minute and guess who Duke’s plus-minus leader is through 10 games.

Got your guess?

The leader is Knueppel, at plus-145, per EvanMiya. He’s nine points ahead of Cooper Flagg and 17 ahead of Sion James; the other two Blue Devils with triple-digit plus-minuses are Tyrese Proctor (plus-126) and Maliq Brown (plus-114).

Was Knueppel your guess? Be honest.

Patriot to watch: Guard Darius Maddox (No. 13).

No current Blue Devils have played against Maddox but at least of the coaches have seen him before.

Maddox spent the first three seasons of his career at Virginia Tech (2020-23). His breakout game — which wound up being his only 20-point game for the Hokies — came in the semifinals of the 2022 ACC tournament, when he scored 20 on 7-for-12 shooting to beat UNC before VT beat Duke in the championship game.

Dropping down to a mid-major has paid dividends for Maddox as a scorer. He averaged 14.4 points per game last season and has scored double-figure points in seven of the nine games he’s played this season (he missed one).

He’s probably due to start making more 3s, too. The 6-5, 185-pounder was a 41.4% shooter from long range last season (67 of 162) and is at 36.4% this season (16 of 44). In GMU’s last game, that 12-point win over Tulane, Maddox made 3 of 6 3-pointers.

Blue Devil to watch: Center Maliq Brown (No. 6).

We’re on toe watch … again.

Duke’s defensive savant missed last week’s game against Incarnate Word because of a sprained toe suffered against Louisville. Brown never appeared to be hobbled during the ACC-opening win, but Scheyer said he played through the pain and then was unable to play with Duke’s quick turnaround.

“Done all of the imaging, checked out, he’s OK,” Scheyer said. “Just, the toe can take a little bit of time. We hope to get him back as soon as possible.”

It’s worth noting that Brown wasn’t wearing a protective boot or anything while on Duke’s bench during the Incarnate Word game.

What’s on deck: Duke plays its second pre-Christmas ACC game this weekend.

The Blue Devils go to Georgia Tech for a Saturday game. Duke is one of two ACC teams that has its first two league games on the road — the other is Stanford, which has its first three on the road. So, it’s another December trip to Atlanta for Duke, which lost at Georgia Tech early in the month last season.

George Mason’s next game is a home matchup against Penn on Sunday.

KenPom prediction: Duke wins 75-58.

What a Duke loss looks like: There’s a tricky element to this one.

On paper, GMU looks similar and a little better than the Seattle team Duke played a day after Thanksgiving. And while that was a 22-point win for the Blue Devils, it wasn’t the most comfortable of games.

With that, a Duke loss would involve a parade to the free-throw line for GMU and a paltry offensive night from the Blue Devils. Duke has had two of its worst 3-point shooting games in its last two, making a combined 16 of 55 against Louisville and Incarnate Word — if that trend continues, the door will be cracked open for the Patriots to score an upset.

What a Duke win looks like: Keeping with the theme from above, this does feel like grind-it-out game.

Duke has proven it can win those — as grotesque as those games can be.

You’d like to see the Blue Devils hit 35%-plus on 3s and run up a points per possession around 1.2. If they do that, great, they’ll be rolling along toward this weekend in Atlanta.

It’s just not a requirement with this team. Duke has proven it can survive the low-scoring, grinding types of games and this probably winds up being another one of those.