Advertisement
Published Nov 10, 2023
Preview: Duke at No. 24 UNC
circle avatar
Conor O'Neill  •  DevilsIllustrated
Publisher
Twitter
@ConorONeill_DI

Banged-up at key spots, Blue Devils head into rivalry matchup intent on winning back Victory Bell; Plus a preview of Saturday’s Duke-UNC game

Advertisement

It’s not the quantity of Duke’s injuries that stands out to coach Mike Elko.

It’s the quality of the players missing.

“When you talk about … we have three kids potentially getting drafted on offense and none of them are playing, those are pretty substantial injuries,” Elko said, alluding to quarterback Riley Leonard and offensive linemen Graham Barton and Jacob Monk.

“When you talk about your highest-rated corner not playing, when you talk about your communicator at middle linebacker not playing … sometimes those are a little harder to overcome,” Elko continued, noting Myles Jones and Dorian Mausi, respectively.

The obvious position where Duke has been hurt is quarterback. Leonard hadn’t been himself since suffering a right ankle injury against Notre Dame and will miss an extended period of time after suffering an injury to his other foot.

Henry Belin IV won a game while dealing with the upper body injury that’s kept him out for the last two weeks; leading the Blue Devils to plug in freshman Grayson Loftis last week against Wake Forest.

For a team as run-heavy as Duke is, the Blue Devils need their top two offensive linemen to be as healthy as possible. Duke hasn’t had Barton for three of the last four games, and Monk exited the Louisville game and only played 11 snaps last week (per Pro Football Focus).

“Loving football and not being able to be out there with my brothers is frustrating on game days,” Monk said. “But you’ve gotta find ways to be useful and that’s the main thing I’ve been trying to do these last couple of weeks.”

And of course, none of it matters when Saturday night’s game at North Carolina is kicked off.

“It is what it is, though,” Elko said. “Guys gotta step up and make plays and they did that.”

Indeed, Duke made the plays required to win last week’s game against Wake Forest. Having that happen again this weekend would mean a season sweep of the Big 4 rivals — and ownership of the Victory Bell for the first time since 2018.

**********

Here’s a primer on what you need to know for Saturday’s game:

Time: 8 p.m.

Location: Kenan Memorial Stadium.

TV: ACC Network.

Announcers: Wes Durham (play-by-play), Tim Hasselbeck (analyst), Taylor Tannebaum (sidelines).

Radio link: Listen to the crew that knows Duke best.

Forecast: High-40s, cloudy, low winds.

Series; last meeting: UNC leads 64-41-4; UNC won 38-35 last season and has won four straight meetings.

Records: Duke 6-3, 3-2 ACC; UNC 7-2, 3-2.

Stat to watch: 180 | 151.2.

The first number is Duke’s rushing yards per game; the second is UNC’s rushing yards allowed per game.

The obvious part of this is that Duke’s strength on offense is its rushing game. That much was true with a healthy QB room; it needs to be relied upon more when there’s one healthy scholarship QB and he’s a freshman.

UNC’s rushing yards allowed per game is ninth in the ACC. That’s a little bit of a mirage.

The Tar Heels’ average is bolstered by a minus-2 against South Carolina in the opener — that’s a 3-6 Gamecocks team that has the eighth-worst rushing offense in the country. Neither Syracuse nor Miami got to 100 rushing yards against the Tar Heels, but Virginia (228) and Georgia Tech (348) piled up the rushing yards in more-recent games.

Quote of the week: “Growing up, the first time I was truly upset at a football game, Duke was at Carolina, my dad and my uncle both went to the game but they didn’t allow me to go. And Duke missed a game-winning field goal that I still believe was in. From TV it looked like it was in the whole time.

“That was like, I guess when my hatred for Carolina started.” – offensive lineman Jacob Monk

He comes from a house divided: Monk’s dad, Stanley Monk, was a running back at Duke from 1984-87; Monk’s uncle, the late Quincy Monk, was a linebacker at UNC from 1998-2001.

The game Jacob Monk is talking about is Duke’s 20-14 overtime loss at UNC in 2007, in which Nick Maggio’s 40-yard field goal attempt missed at the end of regulation.

Opposing offensive player to watch: Running back Omarion Hampton (No. 28).

Picking All-ACC first-team running backs will be pretty easy this year. Duke will have played both of them in a three-week span.

Hampton is the only running back in the ACC with more yards than Louisville’s Jawhar Jordan. The sophomore for UNC is fourth in the country with 1,067 yards on 175 carries (6.1 yards per carry). His 12 rushing touchdowns leads the league, too, having scored in seven of UNC’s nine games this season.

The 6-foot, 220-pounder is a bruiser with some breakaway speed. He has 711 yards after contact, per Pro Football Focus, which is second in country to Oklahoma State’s Ollie Gordon II (742 after contact).

Opposing defensive player to watch: Linebacker Cedric Gray (No. 33).

Duke played the leading tackler in the ACC when it faced N.C. State’s Payton Wilson; now the Blue Devils play the No. 2 tackler in the league in Gray.

The 6-3, 235-pounder has 85 tackles this season and has a ways to go to match last season’s total of 145. He’s a three-year starter who’s been as reliable and explosive as it gets in the middle of a defense that’s been better, statistically, this season than in years past (23.3 points per game allowed this season; 30-plus in last two seasons).

Gray shows up all over the field. Not only does he lead UNC in tackles, he’s second in sacks (4½), leads in run stops (37, per PFF) and has two fumbles forced and two recoveries.

Young Blue Devil to watch: Quarterback Grayson Loftis (No. 12).

Let’s see what the kid has got, part II.

Duke’s freshman starter was 7-for-19 for 86 yards last week against Wake Forest. It’s a misleading statline — per PFF, Duke receivers dropped five of his passes. In the hypothetical realm, Loftis is 12-for-19 for something like 160 yards — still not eye-popping, but a marked improvement.

Hypotheticals remain fantasy and the fact remains Loftis is 1-0 as Duke’s starting QB, having engineered a game-tying and game-winning drive in the fourth quarter of an ACC game.

The Blue Devils’ recipe to win this game is probably similar to that of last week, which means Loftis needs to avoid mistakes and manage the game to the fourth quarter with a chance for Duke to win.

Don’t forget about: Running back Jaylen Coleman (No. 22).

Duke has been fortunate that running backs Jordan Waters and Jaquez Moore have been A) healthy, for the most part, all season and B) effective, again for the most part, all season.

Each game that duo goes through increases the chances the Blue Devils need to call upon Coleman, though, and we saw it briefly at the end of last week’s game. On Duke’s game-winning drive, Coleman had three carries for 14 yards — the first two carries resulting in a first down.

Prediction: I don’t know that I have the best feel for what this game will look like.

It seems like Duke wants to turn this into a grinding, physical, 60-minute slugfest. Winning one of those requires mistake-free QB play and huge plays in the fourth quarter against a worn-out opposing defense.

The problem is how explosive UNC’s offense is. The Tar Heels can attack with an explosive passing game or rushing game. There is certainly a strength-on-strength element with UNC’s offense against Duke’s defense.

If the score stays in the 20s or below, Duke’s chances of winning back the Victory Bell probably increase. Getting into the 30s might be a bridge too far.

Advertisement
Advertisement
football
Rivals250 Logo
2025 PROSPECT RANKINGS
Advertisement
Advertisement
Duke
FOOTBALL
Scores / Schedule
footballfootball
27 - 8
Overall Record
15 - 5
Conference Record
2023 schedule not available.