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Preview: Boston College at No. 9 Duke

Blue Devils carry optimism forward after 18-point win in which offense struggled

Duke's Kyle Filipowski puts up a shot against Notre Dame on Wednesday night.
Duke's Kyle Filipowski puts up a shot against Notre Dame on Wednesday night. (Rob Kinnan/USA Today Sports Images)
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At home and against one of the two teams tied for last place in the ACC, Duke never led by 20 and just seemed to coast through the finish line — a victory never in doubt, but one that felt incomplete.

At home and against one of the two teams tied for last place in the ACC, Duke grabbed a season-high 16 offensive rebounds, worked through a sub-par shooting night to become only the second team in the league to score over 70 points against Notre Dame, and held the Irish to a 33.9% shooting clip.

Both can be — and are — true of Wednesday night’s game.

“We didn’t really even hit our shots tonight, you know, and we still won by almost 20,” sophomore 7-footer Kyle Filipowski said on Wednesday night. “That shows the effort that we put in. … Imagine when we do hit our shots with that effort, we’re going to be a really dangerous team.”

Therein lies the fork in the road for this Duke team, ranked No. 9 in the country and far removed from the NCAA tournament bubble.

The Blue Devils have the talent to be the really dangerous team in Filipowski’s hypothetical. They have been, at times, this season.

It’s just been inconsistent, either because of injuries, lineup shifts and lack of defined roles. And then came last weekend’s loss at North Carolina, with Duke’s lack of effort becoming the latest wart.

“It felt like we were outworked (against UNC), and that’s disappointing,” center Ryan Young said. “It’s got to come from this group. Obviously that’s not acceptable, it can never happen again. … We have to be a team that comes out and wants it more and is the aggressor.”

That box was checked Wednesday night. The shooting prowess that wasn’t there against Notre Dame — or UNC, for that matter — isn’t likely to remain MIA for much longer, based on the three-month body of work.

It’s a Duke team still setting its ceiling. That there’s only a month left in the regular season might induce some anxiety; there’s the reminder, though, that Duke was in a worse position at this time last year and won its last six games, and then three more to win the ACC title.

“We have to be together and connected, that was a huge thing for us,” freshman Jared McCain said. “That was written on the board before (Wednesday’s) game, before North Carolina.

“I think we came out (Wednesday) and were connected.”

It’s a trend that has to continue.

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Here’s what to know ahead of Saturday’s game:

Time: 2 p.m.

Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium.

TV: ESPN.

Series; last meeting: Duke leads 28-3; Duke won 65-64 in early January at BC last season, and also won at home in early December.

Of note: Duke has never lost to BC at Cameron, going 13-0.

Records: BC 13-9, 4-7 ACC; Duke 17-5, 8-3.

Duke freshman guards Jared McCain, left, and Caleb Foster talk during warm-ups on Wednesday night.
Duke freshman guards Jared McCain, left, and Caleb Foster talk during warm-ups on Wednesday night. (Rob Kinnan/USA Today Sports Images)

Stats to watch: 37.5% | 35.1%.

The first number is Duke’s 3-point percentage, which is 24th in the country; the second is BC’s 3-point defense, which is 267th in the country (per KenPom).

As mentioned above, Duke hasn’t shot the ball like one of the most prolific long-range teams in the country lately.

The Blue Devils were 9-for-37 (24.3%) against UNC and Notre Dame. It’s not totally shocking, as UNC has the best 3-point defense in the ACC and ND, for its faults as a last-place team, has the fourth-best defense in league-only games.

But considering Duke had at least nine 3s in each of the previous six games, it’s a cold snap that wasn’t too predictable.

What is predictable is Duke busting loose from behind the arc, and BC’s defense looks like the remedy.

The Eagles have the worst 3-point defense in the ACC. They’ve been better of late, holding Florida State to a 5-for-19 clip on Tuesday night (in a one-point home loss), and haven’t allowed a team to shoot above 40% since Georgia Tech was 10-for-23 on Jan. 6.

Boston College's Quinten Post, right, goes up for a rebound against Notre Dame's J.R. Konieczny earlier this season.
Boston College's Quinten Post, right, goes up for a rebound against Notre Dame's J.R. Konieczny earlier this season. (John Mersits/USA Today Sports Images)

Matchup to watch: BC’s Quinten Post (No. 12) vs. Duke’s Kyle Filipowski (No. 30).

If ever there’s a game for Filipowski to break out of this inconsistent funk, it needs to be this one.

It feels strange to say Filipowski is in a slump because he had 22 points against UNC. But Armando Bacot got the better of him in that matchup, six of his points came in the last 3 minutes when UNC was comfortably ahead, and he was 1-for-6 on 3s. It was also only the second game this season in which he didn’t have an assist; the other was against Arizona.

And then Filipowski was whistled for three fouls before he scored against ND, going 2-for-9 from the field and committing three turnovers. He wound up with eight points, nine rebounds, three assists, a block and a steal, though only played 21 minutes because of the fouls.

The mercurial sophomore wears his emotions on his sleeve, and it’s easy to see when he’s frustrated, as was the case Wednesday night.

“It was hard to get in a rhythm, for sure. But that’s just how the game goes sometimes,” Filipowski said. “Sometimes my face can show a different expression that I’m not really trying to show. I’m just trying to be like, ‘Don’t overreact, don’t say nothing stupid.’ So that’s why I’m trying to keep a straight face.”

Post is one of the best centers in the ACC and has been for the last two seasons. He’s gotten there by doing a bit of everything. Post is in the top 10 of the ACC in scoring (16.4, ninth), rebounding (7.8, eighth), field goal percentage (51%, sixth) and blocks (1.76, fourth).

BC uses Post in some of the same ways Duke uses Filipowski; both of them can initiate offense from the top of the key, have the freedom to shoot 3s, and are threats around the basket.

One of the main differences is 3-point percentage; Filipowski is making 35.1% of his 3s this season but is 2-for-17 in Duke’s last five games. Post is a 43.3% 3-point shooter and was 3-for-5 against FSU earlier this week.

Eagle to watch: Forward Devin McGlockton (No. 21).

Truly, we should talk more about Post — but we’ll mix things up.

So, let’s talk about BC’s forward who scores, rebounds, blocks shots and shoots a nice percentage — basically doing the things Post does as a smaller player and on a smaller scale.

McGlockton is a 6-7, 230-pound sophomore averaging 10.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, about one block per game, shooting 59.3% (he hasn’t made enough shots to qualify among ACC leaders).

Drawing fouls on McGlockton has proven effective in limiting his effectiveness. He commits four per 40 minutes and has fouled out of three games, including losses to UNC and Clemson last month. Though, in the four games since fouling out against UNC, he’s committed nine fouls and averaged 36.8 minutes per game.

In related news, during this four-game stretch McGlockton had a 19-point, 10-rebound game against Virginia Tech, a couple of 15-point games in wins over Notre Dame and Syracuse, and had 10 points, five rebounds and three assists against FSU.

Jeremy Roach takes a shot against Notre Dame.
Jeremy Roach takes a shot against Notre Dame. (Rob Kinnan/USA Today Sports Images)

Blue Devil to watch: Guard Jeremy Roach (No. 3).

A few times on Wednesday night, Roach went down hard and took his time getting to his feet. He never exited the game for any of these plays, but it was at least noticeable.

So maybe it’s not entirely fair to dock him for having an off night. But Roach had seven points on 3-for-10 shooting against a team he scored 18 (4-for-9) against earlier in the season.

What does seem fair is to expect a bounce-back performance from the fourth-year guard who remains the Blue Devils’ steadiest offensive option. Roach just had a single-digit scoring performance a couple of weeks ago against Clemson (coming off the ankle injury at Louisville), and he bounced back with a 16-point game at Virginia Tech in which he made 4 of 5 3-pointers.

What’s on deck: So, BC isn’t on the bubble or anything. But Duke’s next four games will be against a team that will be desperate to beat the Blue Devils and notch a Quad-1 win.

Two of those games are against Wake Forest, starting with Monday night’s visit from the Deacons. And then Duke goes to FSU (Feb. 17) and Miami (Feb. 21), both a bit removed from the bubble with narrowed chances of entering the conversation, with a win against Duke getting those conversations started. Duke goes to Winston-Salem for a rematch with Wake Forest on Feb. 24.

BC has a pair of home games after this, against Louisville (Feb. 13) and Miami (Feb. 17).

KenPom prediction: Duke wins 82-69.

Devils Illustrated prognosis: This has a lot of the same feelings as Wednesday night’s game.

You’re not going into it questioning Duke’s effort and looking for any and every sign of hustle. Those questions were at least answered the other night, as dissatisfying as the final score might have been.

But BC isn’t all that better than ND, sitting at 4-7 in the league, bound for another first-day ACC tournament appearance, its only decent win of the season coming back in mid-December against St. John’s.

It’s a game Duke should control throughout. And it’s what rests on the other side of this game where I think we’ll learn just how good the Blue Devils can be, whether they’re set up to peak at the right time or if this season’s overriding theme will be one of wasted potential.

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