NCAA tournament preview: No. 13 Vermont vs. No. 4 Duke

NEW YORK – The last two games could be the inflection point of what’s going to be a deep run in the NCAA tournament.

Or the last two games are a precursor to another early exit for Duke’s basketball team. There’s little room for gray area; such is reality for this polarizing program.

That’s just not how this team wants to approach the NCAA tournament.

“We have had a hell of a season. Obviously people might not think that right now, but in our eyes, we had a great season,” senior guard Jeremy Roach said on Thursday. “I mean, the ups and downs, everybody stayed the course, stayed locked in and stayed true to ourselves.

“Like, when we have losses, everybody learns from it. Nobody starts putting the blame on anybody. We just start coming together even closer and do what we've got to do.”

The Blue Devils head into the NCAA tournament with a Friday night date against 13th-seeded Vermont.

It’s one more chance — the final chance for a lot of what coach Jon Scheyer has called the “core group” across his first two seasons — to learn from mistakes and come together even closer.

“Wearing this Duke uniform means a lot. There's a lot that comes with it,” Scheyer said. “When things are going really well, you can feel like you're better than maybe what you are. And when things aren't going as well, you can feel like you're a lot worse than what you really are.

“And I think it's no exception when you lose in the ACC tournament, we lose our last regular-season game, and it can feel like the world is ending a little bit even though this is what all these guys came back to do and came back for is this moment right here.”

In addition to the nugget that no team has ever won a national championship after failing to reach the semifinal round of its league tournament (since the field expanded in 1985), there’s a Duke-specific note that doesn’t bode well.

The last time Duke entered the NCAA tournament on consecutive losses was 2007, when it was knocked off in the first round by 11-seed VCU.

“It’s kind of funny because after Virginia, you could say we were playing our best basketball,” freshman guard Jared McCain said. “It’s weird because those are our last two games … so just kind of flushing those two games but learning from them, obviously.”

And the lesson to be learned isn’t a tough one — though it involves playing tough.

“We didn’t play hard, it was very simple,” McCain said.

So, there it is. A Duke team that arrived in this season with the highest of expectations has a 4-seed in the NCAA tournament.

Duke has lost consecutive games three times under Scheyer now. When it happened last season, the Blue Devils rolled off 10 straight wins en route to an ACC tournament championship.

When it happened between the calendar shifting from November to December this year, Duke was 5-3 and had lost at Arkansas and Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils rolled off eight straight wins after those games, including a game in the same city where its NCAA tournament begins (Baylor at Madison Square Garden).

“That’s the good thing about it because we’ve been through it before,” sophomore Kyle Filipowski said. “We went on a seven-game winning streak or something, so that’s exactly what we need to do again.”

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Here’s what to know ahead of Friday night’s game:

Time: 7:10 p.m.

Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York.

TV: CBS.

Announcers: Ian Eagle (play-by-play), Bill Raftery (analyst), Grant Hill (analyst) and Tracy Wolfson (sidelines).

With a win …: The winner will move into a second-round matchup against 12-seed James Madison or 5-seed Wisconsin. Those two play in the game following Vermont-Duke, with a scheduled start time of 9:40 p.m. (also on CBS).

Series; last meeting: Duke leads 3-0; Duke beat Vermont 91-90 in Nov. 2013.

Records: Vermont 28-6; Duke 24-8.

Stat to watch: 43.2%.

One more time … with no promise that this is the last time.

We’re talking assist rates.

That number is Vermont’s defensive assist rate, which is the 29th-best clip in the country (per KenPom, entering Thursday’s games).

Duke has played three teams this season with a better defensive assist rate and gone a combined 2-3 against them. That would be the sweep by North Carolina, the split with Wake Forest, and Duke’s win over Queens.

Last week’s loss to N.C. State was the first time this season Duke’s assist rate has been above 50% and the Blue Devils have lost — they’re now 17-1 in such games. The ball movement (15 assists on 28 field goals) wasn’t so much the issue against N.C. State.

It’s been a key for the whole season, though, and Vermont excels at stifling teams’ ball movement.

Vermont is riding a 10-game winning streak into the NCAA tournament, fourth-longest in the country. In all 10 of those games, its opponent has been under 50% in assist rate. The combined rate across those 10 games has been 89 assists on 227 field goals, amounting to a 39.2% assist rate.

Matchup to watch: Vermont’s frontcourt vs. Duke’s frontcourt.

Duke is going to have the size advantage you’d expect in a game against an America East Conference team.

Vermont’s two main options at center are Nick Fiorillo (6-8, 225) and Ileri Ayo-Faleye (6-8, 210). Per KenPom’s last five games depth chart, the 4-spot is Sam Alamutu (6-5, 215) or Ayo-Faleye.

Sounds appetizing for a Duke frontcourt that combined for 46 points and 22 rebounds in its last game — as bad a result as that was.

Filipowski (7-0, 248) and Mark Mitchell (6-9, 232) were the bright spots in last week’s loss to N.C. State. Typically this season, when Filipowski and Mitchell have both clicked, Duke has cruised. The games in which both have scored in double figures:

Duke is 12-3 in such games. The losses were last week’s game, the game at UNC and the game at Georgia Tech. Among the wins were against NCAA tournament teams Virginia, Baylor and Michigan State. All but three of the wins were by at least 10, and the ones that weren’t were two eight-point wins and a nine-point win.

Catamount to watch: Guard TJ Long (No. 20).

Vermont’s leading scorer is a transfer from Fairfield.

Long scores 12.2 points per game in what’s a balanced scoring effort. He leads the Catamounts in every 3-point category, having made 77 of 208 (37%).

The 6-4, 195-pounder has taken 10 3s twice in a game in the past month, hitting 6 of 10 in a regular-season win over Bryant, and hitting 4 of 10 against UMass Lowell to win the league tournament. He’s a streaky shooter, but when he’s on, Vermont is going to ride him.

Blue Devil to watch: Guard Jeremy Roach (No. 3).

Roach didn’t shoot 3s well in Duke’s win at N.C. State 2½ weeks ago, but did just about everything else well in a 21-point game.

He’s scored 18 points on 4-for-18 shooting in the two games since.

Duke needs Roach to play like, well, March Roach. In the last two seasons, the senior guard has elevated his game at this time of year. That appeared to be the case for most of the season, looking at his efficiency levels.

He’s not the first player to press on his Senior Night. He had a bad game against N.C. State, also understandable.

Now, Duke needs Roach to be who he’s been at this time of year.

“I think it just starts with me. Really, it's us three, the returning guys,” Roach said, flanked by Filipowski and Tyrese Proctor. “We've got to come out there and set the tone defensively. We know offense is going to come and we can score with the best of them.

“But if we come in and set the tone defensively, set the tone how physical the game is going to be, the paces that we're going to play at, I don't think it will be slow starts.”

KenPom prediction: Duke wins 73-62.

Devils Illustrated prognosis: Ah, uh, hmm, well, gee, ehhh …

Your guess is as good as mine.

Duke has the talent to make a deep run, starting with this game. It’s also a team that’s shown the ability to sink to its competition, playing an underwhelming style that leaves a lot to be desired.

Which version of Duke shows up? The one that only two weeks ago had us convinced the Blue Devils were playing their best basketball? Or the one that played the last two games, losing to older teams and getting outworked and outhustled?

Like I said: Your guess is as good as mine.