Blue Devils will need to be tough to reach national championship game
Not every game in the season has been one of these.
But the later the season has progressed, they’ve become more common for Duke.
“We really call it a ‘get-the-ball game,’” guard Sion James said. “That’s what it comes down to at the end of the game. They’re going to crash the offensive and defensive glass, they’re going to push you in the back, they’re going to play in a way that might be a foul, maybe not — but either way, you’ve gotta find a way to get the ball.”
That’s the gist here, on the eve of Duke’s matchup against Houston in the Final Four.
In the second Final Four ever with all 1-seeds, the talent, athleticism, execution level, etc. is going to be at a high level. It’s a given.
It means the games are going to be won or lost because of hustle plays made or unmade; loose balls secured or lost.
That’s nothing new for Duke. The stakes are just different.
“As we’ve gotten further in the tournament, we’ve had a whole lot of get-the-ball games and this is the highest level,” James said.
If Duke wins this one, the Blue Devils will have one more.
Here’s what to know ahead of Saturday night’s Final Four game:
Time: 8:49 p.m.
Location: Alamodome, San Antonio.
TV: CBS.
Announcers: Ian Eagle (play-by-play), Bill Raftery and Grant Hill (analysts), and Tracy Wolfson (sidelines).
Series; last meeting: Duke leads 1-0; Duke won 54-51, having beaten Houston in last year’s Sweet 16.
Records: Houston 34-4; Duke 35-3.
The winner will …: Play the winner of Saturday night’s early game between Auburn and Florida; the national championship game will be Monday night.
Stat to watch: 14.1/14.2.
The first one is Duke’s turnover percentage, which is 18th in the country; the second is Houston’s turnover percentage and it’s 19th (both per KenPom).
Shocking news, this is not, that two of the best teams in the country don’t often give the ball away.
Both teams have been scorching hot and a lot of that has to do with the simple fact that they get shots up to the basket on a much higher percentage than possessions that end in turnovers. Each of Duke and Houston have had one game since the start of February with a turnover clip above 20% and in both games, they beat NCAA tournament teams (Duke’s turnover clip was 20.7%) against UNC in the regular-season finale; Houston’s was 27.7% in a home win against Iowa State in late February.
Auburn actually has a better turnover percentage than both (13.5%, seventh); Florida is the most turnover prone team in San Antonio and its clip of 15.5% is 59th-best.
Matchup to watch: Physicality.
Let’s not overcomplicate this one.
These are two teams that prioritize imposing their wills upon opponents with physical defense. They’re going to bump, nudge, push, etc., to the limit of what’s deemed a foul and what isn’t.
And because neither team is wholly reliant on only five or six players — Duke’s rotation goes 9-deep if you include Maliq Brown and his ailing shoulder; Houston’s goes 8-deep — there doesn’t have to be panic with foul trouble to the extent that most teams would react.
Cougar to watch: Guard Emanuel Sharp (No. 21).
Sharp is Houston’s second-leading scorer but he’s been the most consistent one over the last few games.
The 6-3, 210-pounder had 12 points against Gonzaga, right around his season average, and then 17 and 16 points against Purdue and Tennessee last weekend, respectively.
Blue Devil to watch: Forward Cooper Flagg (No. 2).
It’s always Flagg, who now has a collection of national player of the year hardware to bolster his case as one of the most-accomplished Duke freshmen of all time.
KenPom prediction: Duke wins 68-66.
Injury report: Brown is available and has had a full week to rehab his ailing left shoulder.
He’s not going to be 100%, probably not even close — but that’s the only known injury for the Blue Devils entering the final weekend.
Houston has had a fairly dependable rotation throughout the season. The Cougars missed Sharp and J’Wan Roberts for a few games in Big 12 action, but eight players have each played at least 10 minutes in all four of Houston’s NCAA tournament games.
What a Duke loss looks like: Out-toughed and missing shots.
What a Duke win looks like: Tough, experienced and determined to win a national championship.
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