Breaking down Duke’s Sweet 16 matchup

How close was the ACC to getting a fourth team into the Sweet 16?

Texas Tech held Notre Dame to two free throws in the final three minutes of a 59-53 win in the second round, getting the Red Raiders into the Sweet 16 for the third time in the last four NCAA tournaments.

It denied the Irish from becoming the latest NCAA tournament darling to go from a Dayton play-in game to the Sweet 16, and denied us of one more iteration of Mike Brey against Mike Krzyzewski.

But it’s not like Texas Tech is some upstart program playing the unlikely spoiler.

The pinnacle for this program was a championship game appearance in 2019, which resulted in an overtime loss to Virginia.

It’s the sustainability of an identity that’s the impressive part of where Texas Tech stands entering Thursday night’s Sweet 16 game against Duke.

Texas Tech finished each of the past four seasons ranked in the top 20 of adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, including a No. 1 ranking for that runner-up 2019 season. Coach Chris Beard turned that identity into a job at Texas.

The “drop-off” under Mark Adams is that the Red Raiders are ranked … No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency this season.

Notre Dame made one field goal in the last five minutes of Sunday’s game, Blake Wesley’s jumper with 3:09 left. That put Notre Dame ahead 51-49, and a free throw by Wesley about a minute later made it a three-point Irish lead.

And then came a slow bleed of Texas Tech free throws and empty possessions for Notre Dame.

Texas Tech went on a 10-0 run that included just one field goal, seizing control of the second-round game and punching its ticket to meet Duke in the Sweet 16.

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Here is some quick-hitting info on Texas Tech:

Coach: Mark Adams; 581-253 overall. First season as Texas Tech head coach; was associate head coach from 2016-21 under Chris Beard.

Last NCAA tournament appearance: 6-seed in last season’s tournament; lost in second round 68-66 to Arkansas.

Best win this season: 65-62 at Baylor on Jan. 11. Three days after knocking off Kansas at home, Texas Tech went to Baylor – before the Bears were hobbled by injuries – and dealt the reigning champions their first loss of the season.

Baylor led 31-16 with about six minutes left in the first half. Texas Tech put five players in double-figure scoring, led by Adonis Arms’ 14 points.

Later in the season, Texas Tech followed up with an 83-73 win at home against Baylor.

Worst loss this season: 62-51 at Kansas State on Jan. 15. One of three non-NCAA tournament teams to beat Texas Tech this season (by comparison, Duke lost to two teams that didn’t make the field). Kansas State forced 18 Red Raiders turnovers and held Texas Tech to .77 points per possession.

Herky-jerky season: Just an interesting note as you peruse Texas Tech’s schedule …

Aside from winning the first six games of the season – and those were against one 19-loss team and five teams that lost at least 20 games this season – Texas Tech never won more than four games in a row.

The Red Raiders’ season was one of impressive two- and three-game stretches, a stumble in the ultra-competitive Big 12, and then another couple of good games.

Texas Tech never lost consecutive games, either.

Leading scorer: Bryson Williams, 13.9 ppg.

Williams is in his sixth year of college basketball, having spent two seasons at Fresno State before transferring to UTEP, where he was until this season.

In his first season with the Red Raiders, the 6-8, 240-pound forward has clearly made an impact. He’s an efficient scorer, shooting over 40% on 3s (38 of 93), 58.1% on 2s (158 of 272), and 75.5% at the free-throw line (71 of 94).

The Fresno, Calif., native has scored a combined 34 points in 40 minutes during the NCAA tournament.

Biggest strength (KenPom): Well, aside from being the No. 1 defensive team in the nation, as covered in the intro?

There’s a whole lot of strength in most defensive categories for the Red Raiders. Texas Tech forces turnovers on 23.5% of opponents’ possessions, which is 11th best in the country.

The Red Raiders are 17th in effective field goal percentage against (45.4%), which attaches more weight to made 3-point shots. A lot of teams are forced into launching 3s against Texas Tech – and not many of them have made a high percentage of those 3s.

If you’ve got to pick one stat that stands out, it’s probably that Texas Tech holds opponents to 44% on 2-point shots despite not having a premier shot-blocker.

The 44% clip on 2-point shooting against is 11th-best in the country. Most teams that were better in the category this season have at least one stalwart in the middle – Gonzaga has Chet Holmgren, Auburn with Walker Kessler, Arizona with Christian Koloko.

Texas Tech’s top shot-blocker, though, is Marcus Santos-Silva – a 6-7, 250-pound forward with 28 blocks in 36 games. Mylik Wilson and Daniel Batcho, two reserves, are tied for second on the team with 17 blocks apiece.

For comparison: Mark Williams leads Duke with 104 blocks, and Paolo Banchero (33) and Theo John (31) both have more blocks than anyone else for the Red Raiders. Duke is a top-50 team in the country in opponents’ 2-point shooting (46.4%, 46th in nation).

So how does Texas Tech have such sterling inside-the-arc defense?

Aside from the point made above about forcing teams into launching a ton of 3s, it’s length and athleticism.

Arms is 6-5, 200; Davion Warren (6-6, 205) and Terrence Shannon Jr. (6-6, 215) split time at the 2-guard; Kevin McCullar is 6-6, 210 and plays the 3; Williams, as mentioned, plays the 4 and is 6-8, 240; and Kevin Obanor is 6-8, 235, he rotates with Santos-Silva on the interior.

Biggest weakness (KenPom): We’ll start this out with something that Duke hasn’t done well all season: Force opponents into turnovers.

Duke’s defense is ranked in the 300s in forcing turnovers, creating takeaways on 15.9% of opponents’ possessions. It’s even more glaring when looking at non-steal turnover percentage – i.e. forcing opponents into mistakes – with a 6.5 clip, which is 354th of 358 Division I teams.

This gets brought up because Texas Tech has shown it can be a willing participant in stopping itself on offense.

The Red Raiders commit turnovers on 20% of their possessions, which is 285th in the country. The only teams with worse turnovers rates left playing basketball this week are double-digit seeds Iowa State (20.3%) and Saint Peter’s (20.6%).

The trend in this category, though, has been better for Texas Tech in two NCAA tournament games so far. The Red Raiders only committed 12 turnovers in 68 possessions of a first-round blowout of Montana State, and then committed eight turnovers in 63 possessions against Notre Dame (though the Irish force turnovers at a lower rate than Duke, so that’s not exactly a surprise).

There’s no single key to a game of this magnitude, but if Duke can ratchet up some pressure and force Texas Tech into mistakes, the Blue Devils can take pressure off of their halfcourt offense by scoring in transition.