Across the Beat: Getting to know Pittsburgh

Both of last season’s participants in the ACC championship game are 6-4 and have fallen short of expectations this season.

In the midst of a surprising surge, Duke is one win better than each of them and plays Pittsburgh and Wake Forest in the next couple of weeks to close out the regular season.

First up is a trip to Pitt. To get to know more about the Panthers, we’ve enlisted the help of Jim Hammett of Panther-Lair.

Here is our five-part Q&A:

1. I like to start these with a simple vibe check. How are things at Pitt? It kind of seems like they’re going through a similar experience as their ACC championship opponent, Wake Forest, in that it’d be an OK season pre-2021 but given the success last year, it’s a disappointment …?

Pitt started the year ranked No. 17 in the preseason AP Poll. The Panthers had just come off an 11-win season and an ACC championship. The team lost star quarterback Kenny Pickett and wide receiver Jordan Addison, but returned 15 starters off that 2021 team.

Many figured Pitt would be a threat to repeat as conference champions, but the team is sitting on a 6-4 record through ten games. The season just didn’t go as planned, and those losses like Pickett and Addison loomed a lot larger over the team than many expected them to at the start of the year.

Needless to say Pitt fans aren’t very happy with how this season has played out, but there is still a chance to finish the year strong. Pitt is 2-0 in the month of November, they are favored to win this weekend, and should be against Miami as well.

I think closing the year on a high would help the overall morale of the fan base somewhat, but this season will always be looked back as a disappointment. Most schools in the ACC outside of Clemson are in the same boat: You need to strike when the iron is hot, and this team had enough talent to be better than what they are right now. Pitt simply failed to capitalize on last season’s success.

2. What has worked for Kedon Slovis and I guess more importantly, what hasn’t?

Fair or not, a large portion of why this season has been considered a failure is the play of the offense, specifically the quarterback position. Slovis did not need to be Pickett for this Pitt team to be successful, but he needed to be better than what he has produced this season.

Many point towards the run-oriented play calling of first-year offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr. as to why this offense hasn’t been successful this year, and that’s certainly a big factor, but I also don’t think he trusts his quarterback as much. Slovis just hasn’t delivered this season and that has hamstrung the offense. He doesn't see the field very well and it has limited Pitt’s offense considerably.

Slovis came to Pitt after a pretty successful run at USC. He was the PAC-12 Freshman of the Year in 2019 and was first-team all-conference in 2020. His 2021 season was filled with injuries, a coaching change, and the emergence of Jaxson Dart. He came to Pitt to revitalize his career and be the missing piece this team needed to maintain success. He threw for over 300 yards against West Virginia, and had 195 yards against Tennessee in the first half, but he sustained a concussion just at the end of the second quarter against the Volunteers and he really hasn’t been the same player since.

Slovis has done a bit better of a job over the last two or three games of connecting on some deep passes, so if there is one thing that he does well, it’s finding Jared Wayne and Bub Means on some one-on-one matchups down the field. Wayne actually has 16 catches this season of 20+ yards, so that is a positive, but Slovis has only thrown for six touchdown passes in 9 starts this year, so it kind of is what it is.

3. Pitt’s defense has the No. 1 third-down rate in the ACC, holding opponents to 30.7%. Is it as simple as seeing that Pitt also leads the country in sacks (37), and the Panthers are able to just generate more pressure?

Pitt led the country in sacks in 2020. They finished second in 2019, and third in 2021. They are currently ranked first nationally with 37. This is just kind of what they do on defense. They rely a lot on four-man pressure from their defensive line, which has typically been good enough to get home more often than not.

Calijah Kancey is arguably the best defensive linemen in college football, and is coming off of a three-sack performance last week against Virginia. He sort of anchors the group, but they have other capable rushers like Habakkuk Baldonado, Deslin Alexandre, and John Morgan off the edge.

Pitt will blitz as well, and the main guy you need to watch for there is Sir’Vocea Dennis. The senior middle linebacker leads Pitt with 74 tackles. He also has 9.5 tackles for loss and six sacks. Dennis is one of the best linebackers in the conference and he’s vital to what they do defensively.

I don’t know if Pitt does anything overly special on third downs that has led to this kind of success. They bring in an extra defensive back, dial up some blitzes, and just play aggressive.

4. Duke’s rushing offense has been effective against just about everybody this season, and Pitt’s rushing defense has been equally as impressive. What’s been the key up front for Pitt’s defense?

Pitt’s defense has sort of been the same for running on four seasons now. It took Pat Narduzzi a couple of years to implement his system and find the right personnel, but now this is just part of the fabric of Pitt’s identity. I mentioned the pass rush and how Pitt likes to bring pressure, and that is one of the staples of their defensive scheme.

The other main thing Pitt tries to do to every opponent is stop the run. Pitt is 10th in the nation in rushing defense. They have finished in the top-12 nationally in that category the prior four seasons as well.

Essentially Pitt wants to totally take away the run, bring pressure to the quarterback, and that has generally left them vulnerable for some big passing plays through the years, though the pass defense has been better this season. The best way to attack the defense has always been through the air, because the cornerbacks and safeties are sort of left on islands at times. Teams usually like to counter Pitt’s pass rush with short throws down the seams and three-step drops to avoid the pressure.

Pitt struggled with Jeff Sims from Georgia Tech earlier this season, so a mobile quarterback like Riley Leonard is certainly someone that could give them issues. But the straight ahead running plays by the Duke running backs is something they will sell out to stop, almost to a fault.

5. How do you see this game playing out?

Pitt is 2-0 this month. They have held both opponents to under 150 yards of total offense, generated 14 combined sacks, and have only allowed one touchdown. Granted Syracuse was without quarterback Garrett Shrader, and Virginia’s offense has kind of been a mess all season, but those were still two dominating performances. I think that defense was not pleased with how Drake Maye and North Carolina sort of carved them up a few weeks back, and they have played with a chip on their shoulder ever since.

I tend to think that kind of defensive effort will continue. No, they probably won’t hold Duke down the same way, but I think they can control the line of scrimmage against the Blue Devils. I do worry about Pitt’s offense generating enough points, but I expect ACC leading rusher Israel Abanikanda to have success on Saturday.

I think Pitt wins and they opened as a 7.5-point favorite. I don’t expect this game to be very high scoring or a blowout either. You have two teams that will be physical and run the ball. It may come down to making a couple of big throws or a couple of game changing defensive plays. Given the way Pitt’s defense is playing, I trust they can make a few of those.

I’ll say Pitt 24-17.