ACCT Preview: N.C. State vs. Duke

Duke’s first game in the ACC tournament was either going to be against a team it hadn’t seen in more than two months, or one that it played 12 days prior.

Here’s to familiarity.

N.C. State’s win over Syracuse on Wednesday night means Duke will face the Wolfpack for the second time in less than two weeks. The Blue Devils won in Raleigh 79-64 on March 2, which was the teams’ only regular-season meeting.

The Wolfpack survived something of a scare against Louisville, which fired Kenny Payne less than a day later, in the first round. And then N.C. State blitzed Syracuse, 83-65, on Wednesday night.

Such is tournament basketball in a five-day event — the Wolfpack rolls into Thursday night’s matchup with momentum, while Duke has the benefit of rest.

The Blue Devils are attempting to make some history this week, though that would be three wins away.

No team has repeated as the ACC tournament champion since Duke won three straight from 2009-11. Coach Jon Scheyer was with the Blue Devils for the first two of those.

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Here’s what to know ahead of Thursday’s game:

Time: 7 p.m.

Location: Capital One Arena, Washington.

TV: ESPN.

What’s on deck: The winner plays the winner between Thursday night’s Clemson-Virginia game.

Series; last meeting: Duke leads 152-103; Duke won 79-64 on March 2.

Records: N.C. State 19-14; Duke 24-7.

Stat to watch: 37.5%.

It’s that time again.

It’s time to talk about Duke’s assist rate.

The Blue Devils had 12 assists on 32 field goals against the Wolfpack (37.5%) last week. The ball movement was more crisp than that indicates; Duke missed a heavy dose of open shots in the first half, and picked things up after halftime.

And then came Saturday, with Duke recording 10 assists on 26 field goals (38.5%) against North Carolina. That dropped Duke’s record to 7-7 this season when its assist rate is 50% or worse; the Blue Devils are 17-0 when it’s above 50%.

Matchup to watch: N.C. State center DJ Burns Jr. (No. 30) vs. Duke’s interior defense.

Burns’ only 20-point game of the season came in these teams’ previous matchup.

And that was just fine with Duke because the only other player to score in double figures for the Wolfpack was Mohamed Diarra, and he had 10 points.

Look for the same plan from Duke, at least to start this game. Leaving Kyle Filipowski, Ryan Young or Sean Stewart on Burns in the low post and taking away kick-out 3-pointer chances.

Wolf to watch: Guard DJ Horne (No. 0).

What’s March without a little Willis Reed comparison?

N.C. State’s leading scorer was hurt in the regular-season finale against Pittsburgh and didn’t play in the first-round win over Louisville. He was scoreless through the first half in his return against Syracuse.

And then Horne got hot, and when he’s hot there aren’t many players in the ACC who are better than him. He poured in 16 points against the Orange, adding four steals and two assists, and didn’t commit a turnover.

For the talk of N.C. State playing its third game in three days, Thursday night is only Horne’s second game of the week.

Blue Devil to watch: Guard Jeremy Roach (No. 3).

Comparing the same player’s games across different years gets tricky, especially with one who’s grown as much as Roach has in the past four years.

But Saturday’s game against UNC was perhaps the worst March game of Roach’s career, considering how clutch of a player he’s become and how efficient of season he’s had. It was an out-of-character performance on his Senior Night.

He’s hardly the first player to press in that scenario; the question now becomes how well he bounces back.

KenPom prediction: Duke wins 80-70.

Devils Illustrated prognosis: I’m not going to outright pick this game … but it’s just hard to believe N.C. State has much left in the tank for a third game in three days.

The Wolfpack scored the first nine points of the game against Duke 12 days ago and the Blue Devils still won by 15. This should be business as usual for Duke.