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Published Jul 4, 2023
5 breakout candidates for Duke’s football season
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Conor O'Neill  •  DevilsIllustrated
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There were a lot of “who” questions for this list — and others like it — for Duke at this time last year.

We didn’t know much about who would step up in Mike Elko’s first season as Duke's football coach. We had the spring, sure, but you’re throwing darts in the dark when trying to use snippets in the spring to forecast the fall.

Now we know who those players are and, spoiler alert, most of them are back after last year’s 9-4 campaign.

And so the question becomes “how” — as in how much better can some of those players elevate their games?

A few quick notes: This is hardly scientific. While taking credit for listing Eli Pancol and Ja’Mion Franklin as breakout candidates last year, I’ll also point out Darrell Harding Jr. was No. 1 on the list.

There’s a meaty gray area, but I think of a breakout candidate as someone who’s been in the program for at least a season, preferably more than one, and hasn’t done much in his time on the field because of injuries and/or lack of opportunity.

Here are five Blue Devils primed for breakout seasons:

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1. Sahmir Hagans

Position: Receiver.

Size: 5-10, 181.

Eligibility: Three seasons remaining.

Career stats: 17 games | 32 catches, 405 yards, 5 TDs; 7 kick returns, 149 yards; 4 punt returns, 146 yards, 1 TD.

Depth chart: Duke’s depth at receiver should be the envy of most other ACC teams.

Jalon Calhoun will be the top option after leading the team in catches (62) and yards (873) last season. Jordan Moore’s 60-catch season came on the heels of him being in a quarterback battle until the middle of fall camp; Pancol was a starter until an injury forced him out of commission for four games.

Hagans won’t be thought of as a returning starter and might not land on the depth chart as a starter, but he’s likely to play a starter’s reps.

Overview: Calling Hagans a breakout candidate is a bit of a stretch … because he started breaking out in November of last year.

Of his 31 catches last season, 22 of them came in the last month plus the Military Bowl. The highlight was Hagans’ eight-catch, 139-yard, two-touchdown performance against Wake Forest; but he also notched a score against Boston College when the Blue Devils became bowl eligible and, earlier in the season, his punt returns against Georgia Tech ignited the fourth-quarter comeback.

So it becomes a matter of Hagans parlaying the late-season success into a full year. Until the Boston College game, his career high was two catches in a game.

2. Tre Freeman

Position: Linebacker.

Size: 6-foot, 233.

Eligibility: Three seasons remaining.

Career stats: 16 games | 21 tackles, 1½ TFLs, 1 sack.

Depth chart: It seems like it’ll either be Freeman or Dorian Mausi starting at outside linebacker, with Cam Dillon anchoring the middle.

In the simplest of terms, Dillon became to last season’s team what it seemed like Freeman would be; a versatile middle-or-outside linebacker who rotated between both positions. With Dillon moving to the middle after Shaka Heyward’s departure for the NFL and Mausi’s injury history, Freeman is in line for an uptick in snaps.

Overview: Can you be a breakout candidate for two seasons in a row?

Well, that’s where we are.

Freeman was here a year ago because of a strong spring game — admittedly, not the best evidence to go off.

He’s back on the list because of a strong finish to the season that was carried into a strong spring.

Using the same line of demarcation as the one we used for Hagans, 12 of Freeman’s 20 tackles last season came in the last four games of the regular season and Military Bowl. The conquest against UCF — when Heyward missed the game and Duke was thin at linebacker — saw Freeman record his first sack.

Linebacker is the only position on Duke’s roster that has a new position coach, as Tyler Santucci replaced Robb Smith not only as defensive coordinator, but as linebackers coach as well. Freeman looked to be adjusting well in the spring to the new voice of the room.

It’s worth sliding in here: Linebacker Nick Morris Jr. was the first player left off this list.

3. Cameron Bergeron

Position: Nickel.

Size: 6-foot, 191.

Eligibility: Two seasons remaining.

Career stats: 20 games | 2 tackles, 1 fumble forced, 1 fumble recovery.

Depth chart: There are a few moving parts here aside from the nickel position.

Brandon Johnson was *the* breakout player of Duke’s defense last season and he’s likely to play the bulk of snaps at nickel. But the Blue Devils spent part of the spring gauging his fit at safety alongside Jaylen Stinson, giving a little grace to Terry Moore, a converted running back.

If Johnson is needed at safety, it’ll be Bergeron or Placide Djungu-Sungu stepping up at nickel — or it’ll be one of the Blue Devils’ top four cornerbacks moving over (Joshua Pickett, Chandler Rivers, Al Blades Jr. or Myles Jones).

Overview: Bergeron is the biggest unknown on this list.

He played 24 snaps last season, according to Pro Football Focus. Seventeen of those snaps came against North Carolina A&T.

Bergeron has mostly been a special teams contributor, coming up with a fumble forced and recovered on a kickoff against Miami last season.

He or Djungu-Sungu could have been the pick here, in all fairness. Duke is likely to get creative at nickel when Johnson is taking safety snaps; Rivers took snaps at nickel last season, while Blades and Jones have size that would lend itself to playing closer to the line.

The pedigree for Bergeron is there for him to become a contributor, though, which gives him the nod here.

4. Jaquez Moore

Position: Running back.

Size: 5-10, 198.

Eligibility: Two seasons remaining.

Career stats: 21 games | 84 carries, 520 yards, 5 TDs; 7 catches, 81 yards.

Depth chart: Whoever is in charge of divvying up the touches in Duke’s backfield this season, good luck.

Jordan Waters led Duke’s running backs last season with 139 touches and Jaylen Coleman 108 (in nine games). They’re both seasoned veterans who can pound the ball between the tackles and provide value through experience.

And that left Moore with 84 touches, in which he averaged 6.4 yards per carry and 11.6 yards per catch — both of those being better averages than the two in front of him.

Overview: We’re back to the trend of picking players for this list who stepped into larger roles in the middle of last season.

Moore spent the first chunk of the season behind Coleman and Waters, but Coleman’s injury opened the door for more carries. And he delivered a few times, most notably a two-touchdown game against Boston College and a 75-yard (43 rushing, 32 receiving) game against UCF.

More of the reason that Moore is the pick here, though, is because he simply looked different in the spring. Coleman and Waters still have the edge in size, but Moore being up to 198 pounds and looking the part of a running back who’s not afraid to pound the ball into the middle can lead to more of an equal share of snaps and touches when all three backs are healthy.

And by the way, this position lost Terry Moore to a position change and has another freshman who’s going to be vying to steal some carries, too. More on that in a different list.

5. Justin Pickett

Position: Offensive guard.

Size: 6-7, 317.

Eligibility: Three seasons remaining.

Career stats: 14 games | 3 starts, 265 total snaps, 9 hurries allowed, 0 sacks.

Depth chart: Of all the players on this list, Pickett is the most likely to start.

Duke returns three offensive line starters — Graham Barton, Maurice McIntyre and Jacob Monk — and brought in a presumed starter in Jake Hornibrook from the transfer portal (Stanford).

Pickett steps into the only obvious void, which is probably right guard between Monk at center and Hornibrook at right tackle.

Overview: Hell yes, an offensive lineman can be a breakout candidate.

You can make the argument Duke’s entire offensive line was the breakout “player” of last season, though it’s got competition from the quarterback it blocked for.

Now that Barton is an established NFL prospect, Monk is a repeat team captain, and McIntyre is back from his injury, the Blue Devils have more of a known commodity up front — with one exception.

Getting the obvious out of the way first, size isn’t a concern with Pickett. And he’s not as short on experience as you might think, having started three games and played 265 snaps last season (PFF).

Those three starts came against Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh and Wake Forest. In the first two games, Pickett didn’t allow a QB pressure in a combined 59 pass-blocking snaps; against Wake Forest, he was charged with allowing five pressures in 36 pass-block snaps (per PFF).

As long as Pickett’s performances are closer to those first two games and not the Wake Forest game, he’ll fit in well on Duke’s offensive line.

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